eurojosh Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Can someone explain why hr72 would have that large area of rain in central WV? Map glitch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 3:55 PM, BTRWx said: much! This runs is not good for dca one bit. Expand Yeah but the track is still good for us even though the QPF doesn't look as nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 3:55 PM, eurojosh said: Can someone explain why hr72 would have that large area of rain in central WV? Map glitch? Expand southerly low-level flow ahead of the initial sfc low over OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 3:55 PM, eurojosh said: Can someone explain why hr72 would have that large area of rain in central WV? Map glitch? Expand The other low, while weak, would bring in warmer air into WV with the SE flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 3:56 PM, DCTeacherman said: Yeah but the track is still good for us even though the QPF doesn't look as nice. Expand That's this biggie. One wobble west and it looks different in a good way. 2 wobbles west and it looks different in a bad way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 3:56 PM, DCTeacherman said: Yeah but the track is still good for us even though the QPF doesn't look as nice. Expand I've seen that theory before and it rarely ends well for the District. The warm nose trend must come to a halt asap or 2013...nvm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 3:55 PM, BTRWx said: much! This runs is not good for dca one bit. Expand Typical Miller b. Southern low develops too late so areas sw are drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Not a good run at all unless you are up in Northeast MD. Quite a bit drier especially for northern VA, DC and to I-81. Rates aren't great either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I haven't posted in a long time, but just want to make one brief comment here. This run tended toward an earlier phase but because it's not complete by the time it reaches us, it cuts off the moisture transport due to an unfavorable jet configuration. If this is a start of a trend, in 2-3 runs from now we may really be liking what we see. However, this is one of the possible ways we end up with a miller B screwjob is this half phased solution. We either want a full phase or no phase at our latitude. This in between isn't going to cut it. Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Here's the last six runs of the GFS, total snowfall map through 18z Tuesday. From TT, 10:1 ratio. I'm seeing a really solid trend for 10+ inches on a NE/SE axis through central maryland. The totals did drop somewhat noticeably on this last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Yup. The one thing to take away from this run is that it cuts down on precip for the area. It bombs further north. Follow the trends. Not saying it is a trend yet...have to wait for the euro but we're close to have to start worrying about dryslotting pretty quick and bombing to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Psu should be here shortly telling us how this is a another step towards losing it all to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 it wasn't a bad run. But if did cut precip and slowerto really wind up the system and that's the trend I want to see reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 3:57 PM, stormtracker said: you mad at 6 to 12" of snow? Expand Yeah I'm definitely not mad about this. While this run cut back on QPF slightly for DC and more so for the western and northwestern burbs I'm glad we didn't see a big shift to something way overamped that would've ended in us totally failing. This is a nice track for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:00 PM, Bob Chill said: Psu should be here shortly telling us how this is a another step towards losing it all to the NE. Expand On 3/11/2017 at 4:00 PM, psuhoffman said: it wasn't a bad run. But if did cut precip and slowerto really wind up the system and that's the trend I want to see reverse. Expand Right on schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:00 PM, DCTeacherman said: Yeah I'm definitely not mad about this. While this run cut back on QPF slightly for DC and more so for the western and northwestern burbs I'm glad we didn't see a big shift to something way overamped that would've ended in us totally failing. This is a nice track for us. Expand What time will we start to get Euro data posted this afternoon 12:45ish?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:00 PM, DCTeacherman said: Yeah I'm definitely not mad about this. While this run cut back on QPF slightly for DC and more so for the western and northwestern burbs I'm glad we didn't see a big shift to something way overamped that would've ended in us totally failing. This is a nice track for us. Expand It certainly wouldn't be 6-12" for D.C. iwm snow depth maps tend to be more realistic fyi http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017031112&time=72&var=SNODI&hour=072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 3:59 PM, MD Snow said: Yup. The one thing to take away from this run is that it cuts down on precip for the area. It bombs further north. Follow the trends. Not saying it is a trend yet...have to wait for the euro but we're close to have to start worrying about dryslotting pretty quick and bombing to the north. Expand It's not super wet for anyone other than LI. Our area does about as well any metro area northeast of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12z GGEM looks really nice at 72... I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:00 PM, Bob Chill said: Psu should be here shortly telling us how this is a another step towards losing it all to the NE. Expand I don't know about losing it all. I don't see a total miss. But I guess my fear is a slow bleed away from rapidly intensifying the southern system and a slower development which then adjust the really good stuff (the 1.5 qpf) further northeast each run. It slowly degrades to where we're left with .5-.75 qpf with marginal temps and suddenly we're tracking a 3-5" slop event instead of a mecs of hecs. Do I think that is our fate no. But did the gfs just do anything to comfort me against that no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Don't like the trend. Yesterday 12z was the high point, It's been mostly downhill since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:02 PM, gymengineer said: It's not super wet for anyone other than LI. Our area does about as well any metro area northeast of us. Expand I liked the track better. My biggest fear was a mid level wrecking ball showing it's face. 6" of snow is always better than 1.5" of rain. At least in my opinion anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:02 PM, BTRWx said: It certainly wouldn't be 6-12" for D.C. Expand For me it's still a good run....1 inch of QPF falling mostly overnight probably is 4-8 inches in DC. I'm ok with that and consider it a great storm for March. Of course I'd like to see a top shelf 10-15 inch storm but hey, it's mid march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:03 PM, yoda said: 12z GGEM looks really nice at 72... I think Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:05 PM, Bob Chill said: I liked the track better. My biggest fear was a mid level wrecking ball showing it's face. 6" of snow is always better than 1.5" of rain. At least in my opinion anyways. Expand One trend though is that the surface temps just aren't as cold during the event as they looked a day and a half ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:05 PM, DCTeacherman said: For me it's still a good run....1 inch of QPF falling mostly overnight probably is 4-8 inches in DC. I'm ok with that and consider it a great storm for March. Of course I'd like to see a top shelf 10-15 inch storm but hey, it's mid march. Expand That's about right (but low end for dca) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 3:58 PM, ers-wxman1 said: Not a good run at all unless you are up in Northeast MD. Quite a bit drier especially for northern VA, DC and to I-81. Rates aren't great either. Expand Are people just seeing what they want to see? And why are they scared of amped. Get this thing amped. The best runs were amped just good track. A weak storm isn't going to work when the primary goes west. We need the coastal hitting on all cylinders. I want to see 2-3"qpf. Then take our chances on temps. But .75 qpf with marginal temps in mid march isn't going to make us happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:07 PM, Eskimo Joe said: That's terrible. Only I-97 and points north and east win. The rest is left on the outside looking in. Expand Take the 12z from yesterday and compare it to the 12z today. Now take another step in the wrong direction at 18z and we're literally left with 4-8. Is 4-8 awesome for March? Absolutetly. You just can't have this continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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