Wonderdog Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 To me the LP is in a slightly better spot than the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:00 AM, WxWatcher007 said: Interesting run... Southern low is a touch weaker and further east, but 95 flirts with surface and 850s at 72. Looks better at 78 with the low at 994mb right off the DE/MD coast. Last run it was 994mb in the bay. Expand Yeah, pretty sharp gradient. I see 14-16" for the area on IWM, with 10-12" just east of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 9:59 AM, showmethesnow said: After looking over the 500's and the surface on the EPS, where in my mind they degraded a touch, I was somewhat surprised to see the Snowfall means are very similar to the 12z and may have in fact improved just a touch when considering the overall region. The control run, which for the most part is the op run at lower resolution, is a beast with abroad cone of heavy snow from DC and northeastward. We see 16+ though DC with increasing amounts NE. Just NE of Baltimore is clocking in with close to 2 feet of snow. Looking at the individual members the general theme among them is the heaviest snow will be in the favored climo region in MD, North and west of the cities. There are a few absolute maulings in the mix with 2+ feet to almost 3 feet. Expand thanks for the analysis. You've been great to read. Keep bringing this one home for us. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:00 AM, WxWatcher007 said: Interesting run... Southern low is a touch weaker and further east, but 95 flirts with surface and 850s at 72. Looks better at 78 with the low at 994mb right off the DE/MD coast. Last run it was 994mb in the bay. Expand Just started glancing over it but the key feature I noticed is that there seems to be a little less interaction between the NS energy and the storm as it is moving into our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Residual snow showers on Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GFS also looks good at 72 down 81 corridor before the wall surrounds you folks further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 To me it looks like the NS lp stays in eastern Ohio while we're getting the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:05 AM, WxWatcher007 said: The low is in a much better spot IMO. Kinda interesting that the temp profile didn't seem that great at onset given the track but its 5am and I'm not looking terribly deeply. Key to me is that it didn't step toward a euro torch lol. It's a crush job verbatim. Expand 850's stay east due to eastward tick of LP. Yall have a little breathing room on 6z GFS. Nice run. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Nice run of the 6z, I believe. Let's see if this holds at 12z and if the EURO can keep the LP offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I would add that at 90 the ULL seems to be robbing the western side. Not sure how that may play out/correct. Check out the isobars in PA. Wonky IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:18 AM, WxWatcher007 said: 06z NAM was better too IMO. Euro op was a red flag for how things can go wrong but for now...given the EPS, GFS, and much lesser extent the NAM, I see no reason to spend time in The Panic Room. Expand For now, neither do I but the door is not closed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 as per GFS and NAM (dont shoot...just look for trends) storm definitely lost a little of its qpf distribution from 0z run though. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:23 AM, pasnownut said: as per GFS and NAM (dont shoot...just look for trends) storm definitely lost a little of its qpf distribution from 0z run though. Nut What's it look like now?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:24 AM, Superstorm said: What's it look like now? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Expand cant post pics, but as it heads NE the Poconos lose out compared to 0z. Doesnt seem right to me. Also lower max in Chester as 0z had 23" and 6z goes back to 13", but looking at maps, it doesnt quite match, as they look to get shellacked verbatim. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Yep, tighter "cone".Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:03 AM, pasnownut said: thanks for the analysis. You've been great to read. Keep bringing this one home for us. Nut Expand Your welcome. Liking our chances better at this point though I still think we are riding a fine line between a pedestrian 6 inch totals through the cities vs. a foot+. Think it will all come down to how much influence the NS exerts with our storm as it moves north into our region. I am off the phasing idea with that feature, think that is a lost cause, so i am in the camp of less influence good, more bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:32 AM, showmethesnow said: Your welcome. Liking our chances better at this point though I still think we are riding a fine line between a pedestrian 6 inch totals through the cities vs. a foot+. Think it will all come down to how much influence the NS exerts with our storm as it moves north into our region. I am off the phasing idea with that feature, think that is a lost cause, so i am in the camp of less influence good, more bad. Expand see my post/pic above. Would you agree that it looks wonky back in PA, and to me I'd think that corrects which might help the western quad of the qpf field? I'm thinking the ULL is messin w/ our storm. Your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 At this point, we're seeing wobbles in the track. They will continue through the beginning of the storm and happens with every big storm because the models will never get details perfect every run. Iow, don't sweat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:35 AM, pasnownut said: see my post/pic above. Would you agree that it looks wonky back in PA, and to me I'd think that corrects which might help the western quad of the qpf field? I'm thinking the ULL is messin w/ our storm. Your thoughts? Expand Those wonky isobars are the remnants of our Midwest low as it dissipates. As far as the western extent of the qpf tapering off that is probably a function of the 500's rotating through and it's interaction with the storm to the northeast. Though the RH values at 700mb and 850 are still good we are most likely losing lift due to this interaction. Just my thoughts though someone with a better understanding might chime in with a better explanation. To be honest it looks reasonable to me and we see it play out this way quite often especially with very little separation between the 500 low and the surface primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 11:03 AM, showmethesnow said: Those wonky isobars are the remnants of our Midwest low as it dissipates. As far as the western extent of the qpf tapering off that is probably a function of the 500's rotating through and it's interaction with the storm to the northeast. Though the RH values at 700mb and 850 are still good we are most likely losing lift due to this interaction. Just my thoughts though someone with a better understanding might chime in with a better explanation. To be honest it looks reasonable to me and we see it play out this way quite often especially with very little separation between the 500 low and the surface primary. Expand thanks for the input. I'm glad I was seeing the same thing. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Probably old news, but I don't think the 0z JMA was mentioned to be an absolute snow bomb. Looks like 1.6-1.8" falls and still snowing but the maps with precip end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 11:11 AM, mitchnick said: Probably old news, but I don't think the 0z JMA was mentioned to be an absolute snow bomb. Looks like 1.6-1.8" falls and still snowing but the maps with precip end. Expand If you have access to the 500mb how do they look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 11:11 AM, mitchnick said: Probably old news, but I don't think the 0z JMA was mentioned to be an absolute snow bomb. Looks like 1.6-1.8" falls and still snowing but the maps with precip end. Expand I mean it's not like the euro wasn't wet...we all know the drill especially in mid March...12z semi locks in our fate I think. I'm hopeful...thinking you're in a better spot for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6z GEFS FWIW. Increased from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 11:16 AM, showmethesnow said: If you have access to the 500mb how do they look? Expand Here's a link starting at 48 hrs. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=jma&run=06&stn=QQ500&hh=048&map=na&stn2=QQ500&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 11:16 AM, leesburg 04 said: I mean it's not like the euro wasn't wet...we all know the drill especially in mid March...12z semi locks in our fate I think. I'm hopeful...thinking you're in a better spot for this one Expand I think we are all into the 8-14" range, with odds of more greater than odds of less. After this winter, it's a grand slam....and a taste of next winter? I think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Verbatim the EURO for DCA is worrisome as the discussion above notes. The big problem is the surface: The snow begins at 10-11 PM with surface temperatures around 34. Temperatures rise to 36/37 by 8 AM with ~0.8" of QPF before then; 1000-500 mb thicknesses look ok and remain less than 542. No sign of a warm nose (skew-T ok). However, temperatures rise to near 40 during the day as the snow lightens or switches to sleet/rain. Wrap-around light snow most of Wednesday with perhaps an inch. Glad to see that the 06 UT GFS and hear that the ECMWF ensembles are better (albeit slightly it appears) than the operational EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Looking over the last few precip maps for both the Euro in the GEFS I think it is fairly safe to say we are probably looking at totals ranging between roughly 1.4 to 1.8 qpf for the DC/Balt region. Totals increasing from west to east. Hefty slug of moisture now if we can keep it white is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 11:25 AM, mitchnick said: I think we are all into the 8-14" range, with odds of more greater than odds of less. After this winter, it's a grand slam....and a taste of next winter? I think so. Expand I know you have jumped on next winters train early...regardless if it's good or bad...I'll be here...again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 8:35 AM, Roger Smith said: I expect model trends to favor stronger coastal development and more dramatic phase of upper low, it is striking how similar the 500-mb chart looks by Monday to the Florida deepening phase of the 1993 storm. The only significant difference is that in 1993 the trough was more pronounced with lower heights in the n.e. Gulf of Mexico. But the shape of the upper trough and coastal vort max look very similar. In that case, the southeast low deepened very rapidly and took over the surface circulation at the expense of anything supported by the lower Lakes upper low. Perhaps in this case we'll be seeing a more rapid development of the wave east of Georgia late Sunday into early Monday, then the feeble warm advection left over from the northern stream low will cease to be a factor as a major storm develops around one primary center near Hatteras. A key to this would be somewhat faster progress of the ULL on GEM guidance. The GEM is so slow with the ULL that the coastal remains independent and that's another way to get this to be all snow, but without the widespread large amounts. Anyway, it's great to have winter back even if it is spring. Expand Like 1993?? hmmm... So we should be seeing straight line wind gusts of 100 MPH and ten foot storm surge in west florida? ... lol... I am just kidding.. you should know better though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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