Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,917
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    simbasad2
    Newest Member
    simbasad2
    Joined

March 13/14th Storm Thread (Storm Mode)

psuhoffman

By psuhoffman,
in Mid Atlantic

Recommended Posts

SLPressure

SLPressure

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2017 at 1:30 AM, yoda said:

So who's ready for the 00z NAM?

I am hoping that tonight's GFS will come into better alignment with the EURO

Expand  

While we can't take it too seriously just yet, when does it initialize?

18z GFS was pretty decent.  Do we need for it to"align"? Or is that just for continuity with the individual models?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Quasievil

Quasievil

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2017 at 1:43 AM, Bob Chill said:

@RDM - the southern vort is pretty weak but distinct as the ns vort/low approaches. The amplification in front of the ns vort sorta kick starts the southern energy to get organized and gain latitude. 

I've posted that they are independent but that isn't exactly true. The reason the southern energy turns into a storm before any phase is because the northern vort tugs on it and draws it up and in. So in that respect they are "connected".

The ultimate solution would be a phase into a single closed upper level low to our south or southwest ( but not too far west or it all runs inland). That doesn't appear likely at all and it's fine. What we're seeing now is the southern vort getting pulled and absorbed into the northern stream without a clean phase. And that's fine too because the southern storm becomes really strong before it passes our latitude. Because the northern stream is tugging on it, the precip field to the nw of the low is expansive. Without the tug you get a 12z cmc solution. 

 

Expand  

Really, really great analysis, Bob. The one easy point to make at this time is that it will snow on Monday night into Tuesday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2017 at 1:46 AM, Quasievil said:

Really, really great analysis, Bob. The one easy point to make at this time is that it will snow on Monday night into Tuesday.

Expand  

For you yes. And I am not trying to be a downer. But the CMC solution or at least a variation of it is still on the table for those of us to the west. If the Northern vort is weaker. We could get screwed badly out here. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2017 at 1:55 AM, clskinsfan said:

For you yes. And I am not trying to be a downer. But the CMC solution or at least a variation of it is still on the table for those of us to the west. If the Northern vort is weaker. We could get screwed badly out here. 

Expand  

Now that we are getting close to short range you should feel pretty comfortable. Trends across the board are taking your worst case option off the table. I would be very surprised if the cmc does it again. I doubt that any global will trend back towards a swing and miss between the streams. 

My yard's worst case scenario is on the table more than anything. And that includes a lot of rain. At least you'll be all snow almost guaranteed. My rain is your heavy snow but if you root for that then you're dead to me. Lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites
high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2017 at 1:14 AM, eurojosh said:

What's interesting about that is, last year's was a storm the models caught on to from 7-10 days out, and the details hardly wavered. Which suggests that the model algorithms account more for current data than for climo and past history.

Expand  

         The models don't account for "climo and past history".     Well, ok,  MOS is entirely based on past history, but the models themselves are solving tons of complex equations that represent all of the processes within the atmosphere and at its interface with the land and water.     There is no climatology built in to the actual model.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2017 at 1:52 AM, Superstorm said:

Most storms fall into a hybrid Miller A/B.

We tend to look at a "solid" Miller B as one that screws us.

A true Miller A is a rare breed.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Expand  

James Miller agrees with you. The Miller A often does not affect coastal stations according to his paper in 1946.  Miller B far more common.  By definition this potential event is a classic Miller B which originates from an old cyclone along the SE coast. There is no refence to a hybrid.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2017 at 2:02 AM, Bob Chill said:

Now that we are getting close to short range you should feel pretty comfortable. Trends across the board are taking your worst case option off the table. I would be very surprised if the cmc does it again. I doubt that any global will trend back towards a swing and miss between the streams. 

My yard's worst case scenario is on the table more than anything. And that includes a lot of rain. At least you'll be all snow almost guaranteed. My rain is your heavy snow but if you root for that then you're dead to me. Lol

Expand  

You know me Bob. I want us all to be buried. You know your climo as well as I know mine. Some mixing, especially in March, has to be expected. Even out here I would be shocked if we stayed all snow honestly. I do feel better knowing that you are confident in disregarding the jumper screw job though. The air mass seems cold enough to me for just about all of us to avoid a rain storm. The Eastern Shore probably has to worry about it. Actually, Its looks like a pretty "normal" coastal snowstorm temperature wise to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2017 at 2:12 AM, clskinsfan said:

You know me Bob. I want us all to be buried. You know your climo as well as I know mine. Some mixing, especially in March, has to be expected. Even out here I would be shocked if we stayed all snow honestly. I do feel better knowing that you are confident in disregarding the jumper screw job though. The air mass seems cold enough to me for just about all of us to avoid a rain storm. The Eastern Shore probably has to worry about it. Actually, Its looks like a pretty "normal" coastal snowstorm temperature wise to me.

Expand  

One thing I'm confident of is that if anything falls out here it will be snow

Link to comment
Share on other sites
yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2017 at 2:08 AM, high risk said:

         The models don't account for "climo and past history".     Well, ok,  MOS is entirely based on past history, but the models themselves are solving tons of complex equations that represent all of the processes within the atmosphere and at its interface with the land and water.     There is no climatology built in to the actual model.

Expand  

Thank you for that informative response... that is very interesting

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2017 at 1:30 AM, yoda said:

So who's ready for the 00z NAM?

I am hoping that tonight's GFS will come into better alignment with the EURO

Expand  

I'm not.  I'm sold on the GFS/UKMET/EURO...but the NAM always seems to do something wonky with complex setups like this until it's inside of 60 HRs.  Don't think the 00z NAM will be something we like.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
  On 3/11/2017 at 2:54 AM, high risk said:

 

     Yes, showers and flurries to the tune of 1.5" of liquid.

Expand  

Lol. Don't mind him, he's always pretty terrible with analysis. Lovable but terrible.  But again, as you said earlier people should know better with the NAM.  Might have to remind them again. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...