snjókoma Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 11:46 PM, AmericanWxFreak said: The 18z individual snowmaps do show a decent amount of naso great solutions. More then I remember seeing earlier today Expand Yeah, additionally the mean is actually worse once you get a little east of DC... tighter gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Do we get deformed at all or is this just straight WAA snows and it just rolls through like 2/13/14 did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 11:46 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Why is the "key" what tha storm does in New England? Looking for some mega wrap around? Expand Yeah they both give us the same amount.. Big difference up north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 11:49 PM, osfan24 said: Do we get deformed at all or is this just straight WAA snows and it just rolls through like 2/13/14 did? Expand Just rolls like 2014, maybe a small second batch with the ULL. You can see the 700mb low bombs from NW NJ to Vermont, so the deform would be Allentown to to Lake Champlain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 WPC QPF forecast has D.C. in the 1.5"+ range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 11:59 PM, nj2va said: WPC QPF forecast has D.C. in the 1.5"+ range. Expand Looks like they favor the EURO/EPS with that QPF forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 11:57 PM, Amped said: Just rolls like 2014, maybe a small second batch with the ULL. You can see the 700mb low bombs from NW NJ to Vermont, so the deform would be Allentown to to Lake Champlain. Expand That's sad and explains the lower upside and short period of precip. Deform is the best. You can double your total with the deforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 12:01 AM, osfan24 said: That's sad and explains the lower upside and short period of precip. Deform is the best. You can double your total with the deforms. Expand I don't know why anyone's complaining about likely double digits in mid-march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 12:00 AM, yoda said: Looks like they favor the EURO/EPS with that QPF forecast Expand It's actually almost identical to the 12Z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 If the GFS 18z verified, I think it would drop about 12" in DC and BAL, 15" in PHL and 20-30" in eastern/central PA to eastern NY. There is good but not perfect phasing of the two components before 38N and then almost a perfect phasing near Long Island. If the Florida wave managed to pull in the KY-TN low about six hours earlier then you could up the local amounts 50% while not sacrificing anything further north. But at this point, I am just theorizing from the model run, the actual storm could end up looking considerably different, and so there's realistically a wide range of outcomes on the table. I agree with those who say it shows few signs of cutting any further west (in terms of warm advection) with that massive super-cold high squashing it. And there's nothing really obvious to say watch out for the GEM outcome, not sure what happened there, probably feedback from the usual 5-10 mb GEM over-deepening of previous (today's) low in Newfoundland. GEM somehow got a hold of extra isobars and they are trying to use them all up in this tax year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 So the 18z gfs and gefs back off on the ns low going into Ohio and honed into an ideal track that doesn't tuck in too close or over the delmarva and it's worse than 12z. Got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 8:49 PM, stormtracker said: lol..NAM has the low in Central NC looks like Expand who knew the NAM would get drunk and wobble way west of everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 12:08 AM, Bob Chill said: So the 18z gfs and gefs back off on the ns low going into Ohio and honed into an ideal track that doesn't tuck in too close or over the delmarva and it's worse than 12z. Got it Expand I think they looked at the individual members and saw that instead of 5 bad there are 7 or something like that and that's all their seeing. I think having the gfs on the west edge of guidance with the euro east is a good spot to be. Although that's kind of opposite they normal biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:07 PM, MN Transplant said: I think a lot of us could be very happy with a 2-13-14 event with the knowledge that it is March and we might go drippy during the day. It wasn't fully expected it would be that bad during the day in Feb 14. Expand ugh. but it is march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 12:16 AM, psuhoffman said: I think they looked at the individual members and saw that instead of 5 bad there are 7 or something like that and that's all their seeing. I think having the gfs on the west edge of guidance with the euro east is a good spot to be. Although that's kind of opposite they normal biases. Expand Yes, this is correct... but EURO is pretty much exactly what we want to have happen around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:48 PM, Bob Chill said: I like Tasselyer but I disagree that this is a classic miller B. It's a weird hybrid. The low off the se coast already exists and is independent of the NS low well in advance. It's more a marrying of 2 separate systems vs the NS low "giving birth" to the coastal. Expand Agreed.. just like this week I learned Feb 5-6 2010 was a Miller B supposedly. I guess it doesn't matter it formed in the Gulf and was heavily STJ. (think it was also probably a hybrid more than one of the other entirely) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 12:17 AM, yoda said: Yes, this is correct... but EURO is pretty much exactly what we want to have happen around here Expand You could even be fine with a nudge west with the euro track. Thermals got dicy for a time but as the euro went nuts with the bands the temp profile pulled back east. It was snowing all the way to the jersey shore due east of us even. So a compromise between the euro and gfs track might be ok. Euro was quite a bit east of the gfs track it just was a much stronger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 12:19 AM, Ian said: Agreed.. just like this week I learned Feb 5-6 2010 was a Miller B supposedly. I guess it doesn't matter it formed in the Gulf and was heavily STJ. (think it was also probably a hybrid more than one of the other entirely) Expand Who was saying *that*? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 11:31 PM, psuhoffman said: This includes the follow up threats Day 6-9 which jump the mean another 3". That right there is lol for this time of year. Expand Pretty wild. I think spots like DCA are going to have trouble putting up big numbers but after last winter's one hit wonder it would be something to have places close in on average in March after the horrendous winter we went through. Climate change is fun at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 11:33 PM, Bob Chill said: There was a significant improvement in the mid levels on 18z vs 12z? Expand I've been bothered by the GFS mid levels for a while now but the 18z looked pretty good. It's still a little wonky compared to our truly most classic of setups but it's also disjointed from the actual vort of interest to the lumbering 500 low that pushes by after. Then again who really cares what the GFS says if we have the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 12:26 AM, losetoa6 said: Navgem 18z ..more tucked Expand It's a mauling. 850s stay east of DC and drops 1.6" QPF over the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VerticallyStacked Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Weather underground - Bethesda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 12:30 AM, nj2va said: It's a mauling. 850s stay east of DC and drops 1.6" QPF over the city. Expand What's the normal wheelhouse for the NAVGEM? Tks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 12:23 AM, gymengineer said: Who was saying *that*? Expand It's in this thread if you click into it (I guess click the time stamp.. can't figure out how to just link it).. Marciano. I trust his judgment -- saw plenty of other refs when I Googled it. I think of it as a Miller A but I do remember some talk of it being a hybrid way back when. Can sort of see that but it did take a fairly classic track across the northern Gulf and then up the coast. (this was yesterday morning.. it has evolved a bit since then into more of this hybrid thingy, or I finally decided to stop believing in it since) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 12:34 AM, RDM said: What's the normal wheelhouse for the NAVGEM? Tks Expand I have no idea. Probably never but fun to look at between model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 12:30 AM, nj2va said: It's a mauling. 850s stay east of DC and drops 1.6" QPF over the city. Expand It's a beautiful and near perfect run, although it's the NAVGEM...so it's probably worthy not giving it much thought until we see similar operational solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 12:36 AM, AlaskaETC said: It's a beautiful and near perfect run, although it's the NAVGEM...so it's probably worthy not giving it much thought until we see similar operational solutions. Expand Uh, like the Euro?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 12:28 AM, Ian said: Pretty wild. I think spots like DCA are going to have trouble putting up big numbers but after last winter's one hit wonder it would be something to have places close in on average in March after the horrendous winter we went through. Climate change is fun at least. Expand It's going to depend how the models converge. Typically some version of compromise between the euro and gfs at this range is best. But it typically leans more towards the euro. If that's true this time and they converge 70% towards the euro then I can see DC getting 10" maybe more but DCA will record 2.5 of course. If the gfs wins out more then it might be more like 6-10 before mixing in DC. Long ways to go that's just an early guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Wow. We snow out here for 27 straight hours on the 18Z GFS. We only pick up an inch the last 9 hours but still would be a really fun event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 12:37 AM, nj2va said: Uh, like the Euro?? Expand Doesn't Euro have the low hugging the coast a bit more, with the low forming right off Hatteras? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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