eurojosh Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 8:58 PM, Always in Zugzwang said: It's a radar reflectivity simulation, the scale is a measure of how heavily snow/sleet/zr/rain would be falling. Expand Probably has something to do with the fact that that region goes from 1-9 inches in 3 hours (81-84) on the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 8:19 PM, DCTeacherman said: How many CMC like tracks are in the bunch? Expand I count maybe 8/9 that do that. A few others miss by over amped or west. Slightly more miss east then west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 8:56 PM, PDIII said: Before someone goes ape sh$t and yells at me for posting the hour 84 NAM I have a real question about this... On the NAM... on TT it gives a scale for snow on the bottom right hand corner... what is that scale measuring... and has anyone seen pink depicted for snow before? It says mm/hr but 14 mm is about .55 inches of snow... doesnt seem right Expand I believe that's mm/hr of QPF in the form of snow. Makes sense that a half inch of QPF per hour would be the top of the scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 For anyone sweating the 18z NAM, and they should know better, the 18z parallel NAM, which will become the operational NAM later next week, has a coastal low just like all of the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:29 PM, high risk said: For anyone sweating the 18z NAM, and they should know better, the 18z parallel NAM, which will become the operational NAM later next week, has a coastal low just like all of the other guidance. Expand Is that the one based off the 3k NAM nest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Great video from Bernie. He seems a little bearish south of NYC, but he isn't even all that bullish north of there and is generally pretty conservative with amounts so who knows. Love his breakdowns though. http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/expert-forecasts/snowstorm-early-next-week-for-the-northeast/f4bzi5yte6o0cnlleinxd2ssq527igk4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Nice brief write-up from WBAL's Tom Tasselmyer if anyone's interested: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:31 PM, eurojosh said: Is that the one based off the 3k NAM nest? Expand It's the other way around. This is the 12 km parent parallel NAM, and the 3 km nest is driven by the parent. TT only shows the parallel nest, but you can see the NAM parent on mageval.ncep.noaa.gov (it's the NAM on that page). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I like Tasselyer but I disagree that this is a classic miller B. It's a weird hybrid. The low off the se coast already exists and is independent of the NS low well in advance. It's more a marrying of 2 separate systems vs the NS low "giving birth" to the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 cold monday morning...22 at DCA, 18 at IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 18z GFS running, hr 54, northern shortwave looks more amped to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Really like seeing the GFS come in further south with the NS low. Should be as good or better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:48 PM, Bob Chill said: I like Tasselyer but I disagree that this is a classic miller B. It's a weird hybrid. The low off the se coast already exists and is independent of the NS low well in advance. It's more a marrying of 2 separate systems vs the NS low "giving birth" to the coastal. Expand I was wondering about that, because someone posted a discussion this morning from WPC that said it was a combination of Miller A and B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:50 PM, Bob Chill said: Really like seeing the GFS come in further south with the NS low. Should be as good or better than 12z. Expand It didn't look that much further south to me. Maybe hair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:50 PM, Bob Chill said: Really like seeing the GFS come in further south with the NS low. Should be as good or better than 12z. Expand Yeah I was going to say I think we are going to like this run better than the 12z. H5@66 and a little quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 So do we want the NS to be sharper, more pronounced as it traverses or do we want it to be less sharp and have it fade as the southern stream takes over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 This isn't 3/5/13...GFS has DCA 39/14 at 5 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:51 PM, BristowWx said: It didn't look that much further south to me. Maybe hair Expand Every little bit counts. 1032 isobar to our north is further south. Both point towards at least a little less worry with temps. Just speculating though. We'll know in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:52 PM, Deck Pic said: This isn't 3/5/13...GFS has DCA 39/14 at 5 pm Expand That's perfect..with low dews too I'm guessing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Snow arrives around 7-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I think this run will be better than 12z..surface looks colder, at least at 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Still new to this part, getting an early read on the models and anticipating, but with the south low being closer to the coast than last run, might this create a more inland rain-snow line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6" on ground in DC proper by 2am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 84 the 850 retreating north quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Oh boy, NS giving in faster. Going nuts over NC by hr84 and dumping snow here. 850 SE of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 near perfect track....epic run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 More Neutral at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GFS is a crushjob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Perfect destruction. Excellent run. Colder and wetter than 12. Better evolution and stronger vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:52 PM, Deck Pic said: This isn't 3/5/13...GFS has DCA 39/14 at 5 pm Expand heck, that's not even 3/93 (not comparing this to that, but just saying that is an extremely favorable temp profile for this area before a storm). really can't beat that in march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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