Disc Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, wxtylerb said: I am the Chief Meteorologist in Beckley, West Virginia, I know this is the southeastern thread and includes Virginia, but not West Virginia. I feel like West Virginia gets left out on the thread of Mid Atlantic, so I might start posting in here. What a storm to forecast. Welcome! We look forward to seeing your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 If thr trend continues and the midwest low dies out faster as it phases further west with the southern wave, W NC will have a good shot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 17 minutes ago, wxtylerb said: I am the Chief Meteorologist in Beckley, West Virginia, I know this is the southeastern thread and includes Virginia, but not West Virginia. I feel like West Virginia gets left out on the thread of Mid Atlantic, so I might start posting in here. What a storm to forecast. Always great to have more knowledgeable people posting. Some of us take an interest in that area because of Winterplace Ski Area. Beckley is also more culturally affiliated with the southeast than the midatlantic, at least I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtylerb Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The joy I get is to figure out what preicp type and how long does it last for my area. Most of it will be all snow in the higher elevations but my area is going to have some sharp cutoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, wxtylerb said: I am the Chief Meteorologist in Beckley, West Virginia, I know this is the southeastern thread and includes Virginia, but not West Virginia. I feel like West Virginia gets left out on the thread of Mid Atlantic, so I might start posting in here. What a storm to forecast. Good to have you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Wow said: If thr trend continues and the midwest low dies out faster as it phases further west with the southern wave, W NC will have a good shot here. Not just the W NC area. if it dies out and heights decrease dramatically, would support a full miller A or southern slider. I have to pause at this solution and lend confidence towards the models verification scores at this range, but lets hope a miracle happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 What did the para nam look like, it has seemed to match the globals more closely in prior runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, HKY1894 said: What did the para nam look like, it has seemed to match the globals more closely in prior runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, wxtylerb said: The joy I get is to figure out what preicp type and how long does it last for my area. Most of it will be all snow in the higher elevations but my area is going to have some sharp cutoffs. Good to have another expert, Mtns. of WNC 3 minutes ago, wxtylerb said: The joy I get is to figure out what preicp type and how long does it last for my area. Most of it will be all snow in the higher elevations but my area is going to have some sharp cutoffs. Good to have another expert here, Very challenging trying to predict the winter weather for WNC area, excited what you have to say . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 16 minutes ago, wxtylerb said: I am the Chief Meteorologist in Beckley, West Virginia, I know this is the southeastern thread and includes Virginia, but not West Virginia. I feel like West Virginia gets left out on the thread of Mid Atlantic, so I might start posting in here. What a storm to forecast. Thanks for coming on into a great thread. Look forward to hearing your expertise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Central NC will be in play for some mix or something if it keeps trending that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Hahaha, looks like INT/GSO get NAM'd by the WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtylerb Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 18z GFS looks similar to 12z.. I don't see much changes, if any at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHurricane Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 hour ago, wxtylerb said: I am the Chief Meteorologist in Beckley, West Virginia, I know this is the southeastern thread and includes Virginia, but not West Virginia. I feel like West Virginia gets left out on the thread of Mid Atlantic, so I might start posting in here. What a storm to forecast. Welcome! Always good to have more Pros posting here. Look forward to future posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 What is everyone's opinion for the blue ridge of VA, ROA area and into the mountains of NC. Blacksburg is completely un-enthused in their AFD and have taken any sort of accumulation out of my zone forecast. I just don't understand where they came up with this? I get the mixing potential, but you have to figure if the mid levels are warm, with the amount of dynamical cooling that will transpire with some form of deform band swinging through it would turn over to a heavy wet snow. I mean you look at the NAM and the GFS and they both show a good period of heavy snow swinging in and then pulling northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: What is everyone's opinion for the blue ridge of VA, ROA area and into the mountains of NC. Blacksburg is completely un-enthused in their AFD and have taken any sort of accumulation out of my zone forecast. I just don't understand where they came up with this? I get the mixing potential, but you have to figure if the mid levels are warm, with the amount of dynamical cooling that will transpire with some form of deform band swinging through it would turn over to a heavy wet snow. I mean you look at the NAM and the GFS and they both show a good period of heavy snow swinging in and then pulling northeast. IMO I think it's either going to be a complete over-performer or a snowquester. Models keep on speeding up the southern SW and that's not happening. So i'm leaning on the over-performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 hour ago, wxtylerb said: 18z GFS looks similar to 12z.. I don't see much changes, if any at all. Very similar as far as surface low and precip. But some decent changes at the 500mb level. The energy diving south is more strung out indicating more interaction with our southern energy. If we see another trend like this it will show up dramatically on the surface. this is unique in that we arnt praying for a 200 mile trend. We literally need a small shift of more interaction and a quicker phase. Literally a couple hours quicker will have drastic changes to the surface low growth and placement. 4-6 hours quicker.... well let's just say there would be some happen folks in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, SN_Lover said: IMO I think it's either going to be a complete over-performer or a snowquester. Models keep on speeding up the southern SW and that's not happening. So i'm leaning on the over-performer. Ok then, just wondering. I share the same views as you then. I just think its a little ridiculous and somewhat unprofessional on their part to be so bland and vague in there AFD about this event. They should at least let the public know that this could potentially have a high impact on the public. I obv know because I enjoy this hobby thoroughly, however my wife will look at me sometimes and think I am nuts or something. There are multiple models that are spitting out several inches of snow and if I am not mistaken, our criteria for a WSW is 4 inches so.. idk just trying to get an opinion from the board. As I stated earlier, I have immense respect for these folks, so I hope people dont consider this me bashing them. I guess it could just be one forecaster who is not enthused like some of us are on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Very similar as far as surface low and precip. But some decent changes at the 500mb level. The energy diving south is more strung out indicating more interaction with our southern energy. If we see another trend like this it will show up dramatically on the surface. this is unique in that we arnt praying for a 200 mile trend. We literally need a small shift of more interaction and a quicker phase. Literally a couple hours quicker will have drastic changes to the surface low growth and placement. 4-6 hours quicker.... well let's just say there would be some happen folks in NCWhich part of NC?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Bhs1975 said: Which part of NC? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The western part Bud. Mountains of NC, Asheville, Boone etc... you folks will be very close to the low as it passes your longitude, so long as you are in Raleigh as your tag indicates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bhs1975 said: Which part of NC? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah western nc primarily. Setup isn't going to support any snow very far east of Raleigh really if that. Only hope for eastern NC is the lobe of energy on the backside and that would be flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtylerb Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Blacksburg may also be worried on a dry slot setting up as the energy starts to transfer to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, wxtylerb said: Blacksburg may also be worried on a dry slot setting up as the energy starts to transfer to the coast? The ULL is pretty potent. Most models are advertising the deform band to pivot right over the 81 corridor as well. Heck, the GFS Ensembles have a mean of 4.5'' over ROA, so its just somewhat mind boggling. I understand also them not wanting to jump the gun at the same time so... tonight's runs will also be beneficial for them to ensure a more uniform forecast from the models, as it has kind of been back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Anyone have soundings for the euro? I know the clown maps from the Euro that I have seen basically blanked our area outside of elevation. IDK if it is simply an above 32 surface or something in the mid levels. Looked at the text sounding from the 18z NAM and at least half of the .86 should be snow... unless the warm nose over performs:-| My guess is blacksburg is seeing something in the Euro. They did mention the SREF in an earlier discussion. Looking at the plum viewer, the snow ptype does not overcome rain until very late so it could be that too. That did go a little better looking at 15z but not much. We are just really close here bot at 2m and 850ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, nomanslandva said: Anyone have soundings for the euro? I know the clown maps from the Euro that I have seen basically blanked our area outside of elevation. IDK if it is simply an above 32 surface or something in the mid levels. Looked at the text sounding from the 18z NAM and at least half of the .86 should be snow... unless the warm nose over performs:-| My guess is blacksburg is seeing something in the Euro. They did mention the SREF in an earlier discussion. Looking at the plum viewer, the snow ptype does not overcome rain until very late so it could be that too. That did go a little better looking at 15z but not much. We are just really close here bot at 2m and 850ish. The Euro has been pretty horrid for its standards with this storm. It finally came to the party this afternoon with a monster 987 off the delmarva. The SREF are pretty atrocious to use nowadays imo as well. Idk, maybe it is just me, but you have a bombing low pressure center, if it is not undergoing bombogenesis, then it is pretty darn close. You know the winds should be able to veer in a favorable direction to supply the cold air. Along with rates and other processes, I truly believe it will overperform out our way. The way the northern ULL keeps progressing, there are several models showing it going to our southeast, which usually tends to be very favorable for our area, as naturally it helps to not shove the warm air above 850. Really looking forward to the models tonight, as there was a significant trend this afternoon to take the northern s/w and push it south more and more to get us to a Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, wxtylerb said: Blacksburg may also be worried on a dry slot setting up as the energy starts to transfer to the coast? That seems to be a concern, as all models have one to some degree. I was beginning to worry about it with previous GFS runs for the 81 corridor, but recent runs seem to push it towards the Piedmont of VA. If the NAM is to be believed, we won't have to worry about any dry slot along the 81 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Disc said: That seems to be a concern, as all models have one to some degree. I was beginning to worry about it with previous GFS runs for the 81 corridor, but recent runs seem to push it towards the Piedmont of VA. If the NAM is to be believed, we won't have to worry about any dry slot along the 81 corridor. For once, I am kind of proud of the NAM. It literally has shown that heavy band over the 81 corridor for almost 7-8 runs in a row. Very solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: For once, I am kind of proud of the NAM. It literally has shown that heavy band over the 81 corridor for almost 7-8 runs in a row. Very solid. The NAM has done well the past year or so. I think most take it more seriously now; especially in the later time frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, FallsLake said: The NAM has done well the past year or so. I think most take it more seriously now; especially in the later time frames. Talk to the MA guys and let me know how that works out for you. Hahahahaa they bash the hell out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Talk to the MA guys and let me know how that works out for you. Hahahahaa they bash the hell out of it. Well, the NAM has done better as of late......... Any model can be useful if you learn to recognize its' biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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