Wow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 18z NAVGEM in the Euro camp. Trending the southern s/w slower and wrapping up back in Texas at 60 hrs. 0z run had it in GA at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Looks like Heavy Snow for Danville, then a change to Wintry Precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Wow said: 18z NAVGEM in the Euro camp. Trending the southern s/w slower and wrapping up back in Texas at 60 hrs. 0z run had it in GA at the same time. Good or bad for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Good or bad for snow? You need to start learning than asking these questions every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 21 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: That's rain for SW nc and over 50% of wnc. I wish it was snow but it's not. Lets hope the GFS is wrong then with its double structure type low setup. It is in its own camp somewhat correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 14 minutes ago, Wow said: You need to start learning than asking these questions every time. Easy! I guess the attitude means no snow for you?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 18z Digimon model....looks Euro like but would think the low runs inland Franklin style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 18z gefs drops way back on snow mean for my area... was at about 4-5", now around 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 42 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Lets hope the GFS is wrong then with its double structure type low setup. It is in its own camp somewhat correct? It is. It's struggling with the phasing. We (as in all western posters) need the northern low to dig quicker and the southern stream low to be stronger and dominant earlier. A bombing low tracking inland along the coast is what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, packbacker said: 18z Digimon model....looks Euro like but would think the low runs inland Franklin style. Winner!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Winner!!! That one might cripple us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Probably looking at the easternmost set of solutions today, if it does indeed wrap up into a bomb. The place to be is probably TN up through WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: That one might cripple us lol A crippling, driving rainstorm! Where are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: A crippling, driving rainstorm! Where are you? Danville VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Danville VA That's almost as crippling as living in Waycross! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That's almost as crippling as living in Waycross! Maybe it will trend our way guys... still time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: That's almost as crippling as living in Waycross! How exactly? Danville averages more snow than GSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: Probably looking at the easternmost set of solutions today, if it does indeed wrap up into a bomb. The place to be is probably TN up through WV. Yep...both EPS/GEFS really hug the surface low close. With the atlantic ridge, plus the PV lobe pointing SW due to the developing Omega ridge it's hard to imagine it escaping east...unless it misses the phase. That seems unlikely though...IMO. This has big dog written all over and would love to be interior NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Impressive to see the hot mess that was the 18z GFS with GSO mixing solidly...would have thought it have been all rain there. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfs/gfs3_kgso.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 I believe we have killed the NAM. Has not uploaded past hour 8 on Instant Weather Maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I believe we have killed the NAM. Has not uploaded past hour 8 on Instant Weather Maps. I've got it up to hour 27, looks a lot better for our first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, JoshM said: I've got it up to hour 27, looks a lot better for our system. It just went bananas in uploading. I am at hour 20 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 Long range 0Z NAM looks wonky to me. 850s are definitely noticeably warmer for most. It is an absolute paste bomb from ROA north however. 2M temps are sketchy however. This is the LR Nam however, so take it with a grain of salt. Edit: Extremely warm even for DCA, etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Well, the good news is the NAM track is way west of the Euro so it is a nice change to be actually pulling for the Euro. For fantasy, ARN1 ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GFS still has too much warm air being pulled north from the secondary ohio valley low so no big totals except DC north where they get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: GFS still has too much warm air being pulled north from the secondary ohio valley low so no big totals except DC north where they get crushed Is this scenario plausible? I am not sure if I have seen any other model do this with the event. I know Pack and I talked earlier and the GFS has had past tendencies to drive the primary to far north. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 19 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Is this scenario plausible? I am not sure if I have seen any other model do this with the event. I know Pack and I talked earlier and the GFS has had past tendencies to drive the primary to far north. Thoughts? I know it performed terribly with the January 2016 storm doing something very similar. Doubt they've fixed that problem yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Is this scenario plausible? I am not sure if I have seen any other model do this with the event. I know Pack and I talked earlier and the GFS has had past tendencies to drive the primary to far north. Thoughts? Over past few runs GFS has trended to more seperation (less phase) and the low over the lakes is retreating a little. Less phased solution probably won't be good I would guess. UK at 96 had low over BM pounding BOS. Will be interesting to see where it's located at hour 72. Still Euro should be king with this but the UK ticking east is interesting. GFS blows so wouldn't put to much thought in that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I need an update from one of the world's greatest models. Ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Lots of spiking of the football in forums north of us...one or two of these areas will be disappointed come Mon-Tues. Question is which ones... Already accepted my disappointment but misery loves company :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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