Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1046 PM EDT Sunday... Forecast updated to upgrade Winter Storm Watch to a Warning over Greenbrier WV to Amherst VA, with advisories buffering this to the south from Summers WV to Floyd VA. Additional headlines may be needed further south and west late tonight, pending later model data and coordination with neighboring NWS offices. Here's to hoping for NC mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...As of 1046 PM EDT Sunday...Forecast updated to upgrade Winter Storm [url=http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=Watch]Watch[/url] to a [url=http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=Warning]Warning[/url] overGreenbrier [url=http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WV]WV[/url] to Amherst VA, with advisories buffering this tothe south from Summers [url=http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=WV]WV[/url] to Floyd VA. Additional headlines maybe needed further south and west late tonight, pending latermodel data and coordination with neighboring [url=http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NWS]NWS[/url] offices. Here's to hoping for NC mountains.NC N. Foothills def out of the game!!!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS continuing the theme of digging the northern stream energy more southwest. Lets see where she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 @24 developing center is right over MYR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 850s torch on the GFS. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 850s torch on the GFS. Ugh Well what happened next few frames? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Well what happened next 24 hrs? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Lol not even worth it. Warm as the best moisture misses even me to the east northeast. GFS at best looks like a couple inches here with mixing a definite at this point. The only saving grace is if this thing keeps adjusting more southwest, it may throw the CCB toward us before it lifts out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Lol not even worth it. Warm as the best moisture misses even me to the east northeast. GFS at best looks like a couple inches here with mixing a definite at this point. The only saving grace is if this thing keeps adjusting more southwest, it may throw the CCB toward us before it lifts out. I knew it couldn't be good. Silence speaks volumes!! Lol. Good luck up there!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6z 850s even worse. Not sure the lower levels are going to be cold enough to get IP. Maybe a little snow at the end now but might be time to get the fork ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 It really does not go out far enough but HRRR still allows room for hope. 6z gfs torched the mid levels though. My NWS forecast went from less than 1 inch last night to 1-2 so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, nomanslandva said: It really does not go out far enough but HRRR still allows room for hope. 6z gfs torched the mid levels though. My NWS forecast went from less than 1 inch last night to 1-2 so who knows. Just expect a cold rain, then any frozen is a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 44 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Just expect a cold rain, then any frozen is a bonus Great forecast, and will work with ANY storm in the SE!!! Sleet in the forecast now, which I'm sure they will remove it later today! .TONIGHT...Sleet in the evening. Rain. Sleet accumulation up to 1 inch. Lows in the lower 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 39 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Great forecast, and will work with ANY storm in the SE!!! Sleet in the forecast now, which I'm sure they will remove it later today! .TONIGHT...Sleet in the evening. Rain. Sleet accumulation up to 1 inch. Lows in the lower 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Really do not know what caused the storm as a whole to warm up, when the NS energy trended more SW with each run. One would expect it to be colder especially with CAD already in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Its actually very rare for it to be this thick of a cloud deck here and be below freezing still, especially in March. It means nothing I know, but still surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Really do not know what caused the storm as a whole to warm up, when the NS energy trended more SW with each run. One would expect it to be colder especially with CAD already in place. Yeah me too. My forecast went from Saturday night it had snow here Mod accum low of 30. yesterday it had mix low in low 30s now it's a chance of sleet. I'm sure by this evening package it will be just rain low in the mid 30s????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 17 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Really do not know what caused the storm as a whole to warm up, when the NS energy trended more SW with each run. One would expect it to be colder especially with CAD already in place. yep with the ull digging sw you would think the temps would be colder, dragging more cold air into the storm. NWS has wwa for Buncombe county tonight and tomorrow for 1-3 inches of snow with less freezing rain they said. snow showers and very cold tomorrow night and Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 is the idea of a Miller A type storm not coming up from the gulf now, was hoping for that but I guess not if the NWS just has us 1-3 inches of snow. very quite in here, I guess that speaks for itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 You never want a 1000mb surface low inland over NC tracking NNE...that usually even takes the mts out of the game much less the foothills.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 This is not the storm we're looking for. Move along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 17 minutes ago, downeastnc said: You never want a 1000mb surface low inland over NC tracking NNE...that usually even takes the mts out of the game much less the foothills.... wanted the low to come out of the Gulf and track across to about Charleston, a lot of us would be in the game then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said: Great forecast, and will work with ANY storm in the SE!!! Sleet in the forecast now, which I'm sure they will remove it later today! .TONIGHT...Sleet in the evening. Rain. Sleet accumulation up to 1 inch. Lows in the lower 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Atleast Wilmington, NC got 1.1" of snow yesterday!!! That should make you feel better!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 27 minutes ago, fritschy said: is the idea of a Miller A type storm not coming up from the gulf now, was hoping for that but I guess not if the NWS just has us 1-3 inches of snow. very quite in here, I guess that speaks for itself. If it's any consolation, the 45 day outlooks on the models, keep it very cold in the E and SE and very wet! Don't give up on winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: If it's any consolation, the 45 day outlooks on the models, keep it very cold in the E and SE and very wet! Don't give up on winter! Getting too late for winter weather (except higher elevations), but this is the cold wet spring that many of us though might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, fritschy said: wanted the low to come out of the Gulf and track across to about Charleston, a lot of us would be in the game then. Its more so its path up the coast....if the low tracked over ILM headed ENE it would nail you, or even a NNE track 100 miles off the NC coast would hammer our folks...but a bombing low riding up inland over the sounds is just yeck.....you will see some snow to start and maybe as the 850's crash on the BS but unless the models trend 200 miles east today its over for NC......and the only time the models are that wrong in short term is when they paste NC end to end with a snowstorm then a 200 mile NW trend in the last 24-36 hrs will happen lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Getting too late for winter weather (except higher elevations), but this is the cold wet spring that many of us though might happen. We got 18 days before I throw in the towel! I've had flakes flying in Greenville on April 11! That's my record latest seeing flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: We got 18 days before I throw in the towel! I've had flakes flying in Greenville on April 11! That's my record latest seeing flakes! My grandmother told me a story of her working in the fields with snow on the ground in April. I suppose with the strange year we're having anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 41 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We got 18 days before I throw in the towel! I've had flakes flying in Greenville on April 11! That's my record latest seeing flakes! Ironically here in Greenville NC the latest I have seen accumulating snow is also April 11th, which is also the latest snowfall on record here....it was in 1989 we actually got a inch or two even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Well, they kicked me out of the MA forum for posting maps and analysis. I wasn't trolling...geez! I love tracking these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Mountain people need the low to start bombing out off the Ga coast or farther south, if you want snow with a slightly inland track (that the models are showing). That's not happening here. Otherwise, you need an off the coast track, especially when high pressure is located so far away. I'd like to see it at least down in the 990s by the time it gets to Myrtle Beach. Not this time, it appears. Rain for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 hours ago, nomanslandva said: It really does not go out far enough but HRRR still allows room for hope. 6z gfs torched the mid levels though. My NWS forecast went from less than 1 inch last night to 1-2 so who knows. 12z nam is not horrible man with 850s. Only our area really has a hope tho. It is colder than progged due to dense cloud cover so that may be beneficial. Dew point is 19 so we should get some good evaporational cooling if we can get a good band to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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