griteater Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 22 minutes ago, nomanslandva said: Anyone have soundings for the euro? I know the clown maps from the Euro that I have seen basically blanked our area outside of elevation. IDK if it is simply an above 32 surface or something in the mid levels. Looked at the text sounding from the 18z NAM and at least half of the .86 should be snow... unless the warm nose over performs:-| My guess is blacksburg is seeing something in the Euro. They did mention the SREF in an earlier discussion. Looking at the plum viewer, the snow ptype does not overcome rain until very late so it could be that too. That did go a little better looking at 15z but not much. We are just really close here bot at 2m and 850ish. This site doesn't have soundings, but it has maps for the Euro and you can toggle thru different levels (800mb / 850mb) to see the temperatures. Click on the map itself to get a specific temperature readout as opposed to viewing the map contours. On this link below, it is set on 800mb temperatures and the locale selected on the map is in SW VA https://www.windytv.com/?800h,temp,2017-03-12-15,35.476,-81.254,5,m:eHFadVM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 11 minutes ago, FallsLake said: The NAM has done well the past year or so. I think most take it more seriously now; especially in the later time frames. 10 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Talk to the MA guys and let me know how that works out for you. Hahahahaa they bash the hell out of it. Just went back and re-read our thread for the early Jan bust. We road the GEFS/EPS combo and it failed us. The NAM's got the upper level temps correct and the GFS was putrid. Look at this GEFS run inside 48 hours out...missed by a lot to the SE. I would ride tonight's 4km NAM and RGEM. If your relying on rates to drop temps you are going to be in trouble, though maybe that's just a Raleigh problem. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49469-winter-storm-16-18-2017/?do=findComment&comment=4390205 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: This site doesn't have soundings, but it has maps for the Euro and you can toggle thru different levels (800mb / 850mb) to see the temperatures. Click on the map itself to get a specific temperature readout as opposed to viewing the map contours. On this link below, it is set on 800mb temperatures and the locale selected on the map is in SW VA https://www.windytv.com/?800h,temp,2017-03-12-15,35.476,-81.254,5,m:eHFadVM Thanks a lot for that! That sight is awesome. Gonna explore it more now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 hours ago, wxtylerb said: I am the Chief Meteorologist in Beckley, West Virginia, I know this is the southeastern thread and includes Virginia, but not West Virginia. I feel like West Virginia gets left out on the thread of Mid Atlantic, so I might start posting in here. What a storm to forecast. Welcome Tyler. You are more than welcome to post in the SE forum. We would love it. WE have a handful of people in SW VA which sometimes is similar to Beckleys climate. Lived there for a short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Thanks a lot for that! That sight is awesome. Gonna explore it more now.Yeah it's a nice site. You can also select the GFS and NAM for comparison. Only thing I'm not clear on is how often it updates, and just scanning it, the model run isn't clear...but I haven't used it much yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lettucesnow Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 26 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: For once, I am kind of proud of the NAM. It literally has shown that heavy band over the 81 corridor for almost 7-8 runs in a row. Very solid. 23 minutes ago, FallsLake said: The NAM has done well the past year or so. I think most take it more seriously now; especially in the later time frames. I'm fairly confident the NAM recently received some upgrades to its resolution. Perhaps this is why the NAM has been performing better and better with recent storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 31 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Well, the NAM has done better as of late......... Any model can be useful if you learn to recognize its' biases. The NAM was spot on with this past even... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, J.C. said: The NAM was spot on with this past even... Does the latest NAM show anything for NC other than the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Does the latest NAM show anything for NC other than the mountains? Too warm. Precip will be gone before 850s can cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Too warm. Precip will be gone before 850s can cool. Will the south trend continue with the 00z suite? That is the hope for us NC folks. This could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Does the latest NAM show anything for NC other than the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Will the south trend continue with the 00z suite? That is the hope for us NC folks. This could get interesting. Ok, so if that ULL can keep trending more south/southwest then more people could potentially get in the game here. Realistically not sure how much it will continue to trend until there is a general consensus, seeing as how we are less than 24 hours from precipitation making it into our general viewing area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Watch the IL low fade away. Might get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 43 minutes ago, griteater said: This site doesn't have soundings, but it has maps for the Euro and you can toggle thru different levels (800mb / 850mb) to see the temperatures. Click on the map itself to get a specific temperature readout as opposed to viewing the map contours. On this link below, it is set on 800mb temperatures and the locale selected on the map is in SW VA https://www.windytv.com/?800h,temp,2017-03-12-15,35.476,-81.254,5,m:eHFadVM That's pretty cool, thanks! Adds to the confusion as it looks like we are ok at 850 and 800 and the surface is ok by 10 or 11 PM. I guess we will wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, J.C. said: Thanks for sharing. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Watch the IL low fade away. Might get interesting. Always great to see that beautiful wedge the day before the storm oozing down the appalachians all the way to north GA. You got the 1032 up north of Syranac Lake supplying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Always great to see that beautiful wedge the day before the storm oozing down the appalachians all the way to north GA. You got the 1032 up north of Syranac Lake supplying it. I've looked on other sites, wxrisk, and he showing models and they seem to be back and forth or probably I just don't know what I'm looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: I've looked on other sites, wxrisk, and he showing models and they seem to be back and forth or probably I just don't know what I'm looking for. If I were living down in Mt. Airy area, I would be looking for the low to bomb or strengthen quicker and allow the colder air to get funneled down the west side. The upper level low is trending favorably for this to possibly occur. The 0z models will be coming out shortly. Leadoff hitter will be the NAM around 2130 hours I believe is the time now with the new time change. There will be plenty of commentating going on in here tonight, so feel free to ask questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 This should let people know how volatile of a forecast this can be. Strong dynamics in play with this system. Text insert from SPC regarding tomorrow. ..The Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas into the southern Appalachians... Elevated showers and possibly some embedded lightning is expected from the southern Appalachians east/northeast into the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic region, as the upper short-wave trough advances cyclonically eastward across the region. At this time, risk for surface-based storms appears minimal, confined to the Carolina Outer Banks at best. While a stronger storm cannot be entirely ruled out near the coast, at this time it appears that any more vigorous convection will remain offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said: If I were living down in Mt. Airy area, I would be looking for the low to bomb or strengthen quicker and allow the colder air to get funneled down the west side. The upper level low is trending favorably for this to possibly occur. The 0z models will be coming out shortly. Leadoff hitter will be the NAM around 2130 hours I believe is the time now with the new time change. There will be plenty of commentating going on in here tonight, so feel free to ask questions. I'm about 5 miles North of Dobson , Haystack Rd, roughly 175 ft. higher in elevation. I noticed when it snows at my home we get more than in city limits. Thanks for the update. I hope everyone in NC can score on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 22 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: I'm about 8 miles SW of Mt Airy , Haystack Rd, roughly 100 ft higher in elevation. I noticed when it snows at my home we get more than in city limits. Thanks for the update. I hope everyone in NC can score on this one. We all want snow but this storm is most likely a NW NC up through Virginia storm. I would be very hopeful at your location. I suppose a miracle could happen for folks farther east; but me for one used up my weekly miracle on the light snow this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 51 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Thanks for sharing. I'll take it. Fair warning: that map includes ZR/IP, which is what falls almost exclusively once you go down the escarpment. Even the mountains see a good bit of ZR/IP at the start before transitioning to heavy snow (on the NAM anyways). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 0Z NAM running. So far the trend continues at 6hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Wow said: 0Z NAM running. So far the trend continues at 6hrs Nam still southwest of where it was at 18z. N/s is less defined. Trend continues for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I know SREFs suck but they are trending cooler. Total qpf up, total snow up and the point in time on the ptype grid where snow chances equal rain chances has moved up in time. Was as bad as 12z Tuesday now id close at 3z. I have been badly disappointed by trusting the SREF but there is clearly a trend today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, nomanslandva said: I know SREFs suck but they are trending cooler. Total qpf up, total snow up and the point in time on the ptype grid where snow chances equal rain chances has moved up in time. Was as bad as 12z Tuesday now id close at 3z. I have been badly disappointed by trusting the SREF but there is clearly a trend today. Careful with the sref man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just so people get a better idea. If you look at the KS/OK area, you can see the area of vorticity is further south on the 0z. This is a continued trend in the model suites to want to dig the northern stream more. We'll see how it translates down stream here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Careful with the sref man. Reel this one in for both of us Buddy..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Careful with the sref man. I'm about 10-12 miles SW of Mt.Airy I need to get Nam'd tonight or it's over for me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 Southern stream energy is significantly more west of the 18z position at hr 12 with northern stream digging deep. This run could be interesting once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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