Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Felt the need to separate this event frpm the Sat Sun event. Mods, please ensure this newly created thread is acceptable. Potential for a big dog incoming for areas of the NC mountains/VA zones. Models honing in on a classic March MECS. Great agreement between the models, specifically the EURO where the ensembles have a pretty tight clustering. 12z model suites to be incoming shortly. The 5h pictured below on the 12z nam at 84 is a classic look for a monster low to barrel up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 This is the one Im interested in. Need a phase charleston or futher south. Not fired up about the Sunday deal. Anxiously awaiting the ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: This is the one Im interested in. Need a phase charleston or futher south. Not fired up about the Sunday deal. Anxiously awaiting the ukmet CMC to my recollection is the one that started the party a couple days back. UKIE/EURO combo looks appetizing. Good hit with them. GFS is a little more strung out with the precip field, although I would venture to say that will look better over the next couple of cycles here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 CMC was the 1st one to the dance, you are correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 GFS about to go boom at 78 off the CHS coast again. Looks slightly more amped this run comparing to the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 What will it take to get frozen precip in central NC from this? What do we need to see happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GFS aint gonna cut it for most.. too warm, the low in the ohio valley is too strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Big storm... just to warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: What will it take to get frozen precip in central NC from this? What do we need to see happen? A Moses type of miracle, it ain't happening! We have the dreaded cold rain thread, it sucks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Even DC mixes and NYC goes to rain on GFS haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The Ohio Valley low needs to die quicker to get snow out of this. That low is killing the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Soooooo close here in the foothills. 32 degrees with heaviest precip overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GFS has, for some reason, kept the low close to coast, other models are a little further east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: GFS aint gonna cut it for most.. too warm, the low in the ohio valley is too strong 2m would disagree anyway. Even if its a heavy sleet sounding its def a win for march standards. 850s are good up my way just checked. You have that 1032 hp up in maine supplying a source of cold air damming, along with a rapidly bombing system, helping to reinforce the cold air aupply on the west side of the storm. Ive been through many of these storms when I lived in the northeast. It may not work for people south of I40 but id be pretty excited VA border north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: GFS has, for some reason, kept the low close to coast, other models are a little further east... I hate when storms miss da benchmak, it makes me wanna cry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: 2m would disagree anyway. Even if its a heavy sleet sounding its def a win for march standards. 850s are good up my way just checked. You have that 1032 hp up in maine supplying a source of cold air damming, along with a rapidly bombing system, helping to reinforce the cold air aupply on the west side of the storm. Ive been through many of these storms when I lived in the northeast. It may not work for people south of I40 but id be pretty excited VA border north. The problem is that Ohio Valley low which brings in a lot of warm air in the mid levels... It stays stronger on the GFS than the EURO or other globals.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, wncsnow said: The problem is that Ohio Valley low which brings in a lot of warm air in the mid levels... It stays stronger on the GFS than the EURO or other globals.. If im not mistaken, isnt that a bias of the GFS or no? Holding on to the primary too long? Guess I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Everybody is a loser this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 My area in Danville va, shows our temperature right at 33 for most of the event... going by gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: My area in Danville va, shows our temperature right at 33 for most of the event... going by gfs Yea I would agree. It looked like the 32 line was just to my south southeast. Obv if the rates are decent you should be ok at that point. Problem is with the OH valley low, will we cook upstairs? Idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 12z CMC/GGEM is east of gfs not sure about Temps or qpf though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 CMC is way east of GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: If im not mistaken, isnt that a bias of the GFS or no? Holding on to the primary too long? Guess I could be wrong. Yes...did that in Jan 2016, held onto secondary to long. Euro should rule for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Here is an algorithm derived from the GFS via a poster from the mid atlantic crew. Looks like a solid 4-8" event for the mountains, with the bigger totals just to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 11 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Everybody is a loser this run! I'm a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 31 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: What will it take to get frozen precip in central NC from this? What do we need to see happen? -2 months. Precisely why we don't cancel the overrunning in order to set the table for the big dog in the month March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: -2 months. I couldn't think of a way for it to snow in Raleigh with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: I couldn't think of a way for it to snow in Raleigh with this. Does CMC give us better hope or maybe with upcoming euro further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Does CMC give us better hope or maybe with upcoming euro further east Not really...need the energy in TN further south and a much stronger SS energy I would guess. Models have been awful at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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