March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential

[Rittenhouse]

Upton doesn't seem to be on the warm train. 

Read the AFD. It says they believe the mix line will reach NYC. They even say that they doubt the city will verify as a true blizzard due to this mixing. They only kept the warning for the sake of continuity. Maybe they're just hedging their bets though

[mikem81]

Still cant believe the difference between the GFS and NAM so close to a storm in terms of temps

[sferic]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The 18z runs are making me start to think the immediate coast, like where I am, is in danger of this being a pretty big bust. If we're already over to sleet by 8am like the NAM/Rgem are doing, when the real meat of the storm is just beginning, we might barely even make warning criteria much less a blizzard. The RGEM at 18z still gives JFK something like 12" of snow but the writing's on the wall IMO for a lousy outcome if these really amped meso models are right. The GFS is likely too warm at the surface, but it cut back a lot too from here east. Given that the NWS just this morning was still insisting on 12-18" here and people here are expecting a major snow event, getting maybe half that will come across as "so what", especially when there have likely been two blizzards here already this winter. The coastal front look on some of the models also gives me a 2/13/14 vibe where even Mineola might hang onto snow for a while after south of Sunrise Highway goes to sleet or even rain. The winds should stay northerly here but the coastal front pushing in a little might mean we sneak above 32 anyway and go to rain. Ahh well, it'll suck for me but it's March and we've had some other impressive winter storms this year. This one I'm getting the strong feeling just is breaking against this area late. 

This is not your average storm and trying to even try and predict it 12 hours out is a crap shoot. It'll come down to nowcasting I feel. I think there will be more surprises then dissapointments. Since all of this board will be up for the next 12 hours we'll see it reveal itself in real time.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Rittenhouse said:

Read the AFD. It says they believe the mix line will reach NYC. They even say that they doubt the city will verify as a true blizzard due to this mixing. They only kept the warning for the sake of continuity. Maybe they're just hedging their bets though

It'll be very high impact due to the worst being just before and during rush hour, so that's likely another reason they kept it. A fairly small area in N NJ and SE NY will probably see a verified blizzard here, but further inland the winds might be light enough that criteria isn't met (the visibility part definitely will though-snow should be coming down at 3"+ per hour at times).

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The 18z runs are making me start to think the immediate coast, like where I am, is in danger of this being a pretty big bust. If we're already over to sleet by 8am like the NAM/Rgem are doing, when the real meat of the storm is just beginning, we might barely even make warning criteria much less a blizzard. The RGEM at 18z still gives JFK something like 12" of snow but the writing's on the wall IMO for a lousy outcome if these really amped meso models are right. The GFS is likely too warm at the surface, but it cut back a lot too from here east. Given that the NWS just this morning was still insisting on 12-18" here and people here are expecting a major snow event, getting maybe half that will come across as "so what", especially when there have likely been two blizzards here already this winter. The coastal front look on some of the models also gives me a 2/13/14 vibe where even Mineola might hang onto snow for a while after south of Sunrise Highway goes to sleet or even rain. The winds should stay northerly here but the coastal front pushing in a little might mean we sneak above 32 anyway and go to rain. Ahh well, it'll suck for me but it's March and we've had some other impressive winter storms this year. This one I'm getting the strong feeling just is breaking against this area late. 

Well, you lay out some real concerns and not just in your area. This is not what we were expecting, but we have seen this before. In my area, though, all the storms kinda busted this year. Well, one of em will nail us one year. Hoping to get a decent snow before sleet over here in CNJ.

[forkyfork]

i like a feb 2014 style snow gradient across the region

[keno19]

I will be focusing on the HRRRR.  seems like around 12pm south shore of nassau county like massapequa seaford wantagh bellmore merrick etc all change.   We thump 13 incches and then turn over.  I would not be shocked to see a 25 mile shift east to prolong the changeover

[JetsPens87]

Just now, forkyfork said:

i like a feb 2014 style snow gradient across the region

The amount of people googling the historical snowmap for that storm right now.... haha

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The 18z runs are making me start to think the immediate coast, like where I am, is in danger of this being a pretty big bust. If we're already over to sleet by 8am like the NAM/Rgem are doing, when the real meat of the storm is just beginning, we might barely even make warning criteria much less a blizzard. The RGEM at 18z still gives JFK something like 12" of snow but the writing's on the wall IMO for a lousy outcome if these really amped meso models are right. The GFS is likely too warm at the surface, but it cut back a lot too from here east. Given that the NWS just this morning was still insisting on 12-18" here and people here are expecting a major snow event, getting maybe half that will come across as "so what", especially when there have already likely been two blizzards here already this winter. The coastal front look on some of the models also gives me a 2/13/14 vibe where even Mineola might hang onto snow for a while after south of Sunrise Highway goes to sleet or even rain. The winds should stay northerly here but the coastal front pushing in a little might mean we sneak above 32 anyway and go to rain. Ahh well, it'll suck for me but it's March and we've had some other impressive winter storms this year. This one I'm getting the strong feeling just is breaking against this area late. 

I tend to disagree. Sleet should hold off there until after 10am at which time a good 10" should have already fallen. Then it's puking sleet for a few hours which gives another 2". By the time it finally goes over to rain it's mostly light and dry slottting. For each 5 miles north add an hour of the heavy snow. Until you get up to where I am and we only switch to sleet for a couple hours while it rains down there. This is definitely not the immediate coasts storm but I think we make blizzard criteria just before the change over. All is not lost unless your out on the south fork or coastal Monmouth  

[mikeysed]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i like a feb 2014 style snow gradient across the region

 

Perhaps a bit stronger. Numbers below for various areas

Northern NJ:
19.2″ – Highland Lakes, NJ (Sussex)
19.1″ – Blairstown, NJ (Warren)
17.3″ – Rockaway, NJ (Morris)
16.7″ – Roselle, NJ (Union)
16.3″ – West Milford, NJ (Passaic)
15.5″ – Oakland, NJ (Bergen)
15.5″ – West Orange, NJ (Essex)
14.5″ – Harrison, NJ (Hudson)

Southeast NY:
20.5″ – Harriman, NY (Orange)
18.0″ – Kent Cliffs, NY (Putnam)
17.2″ – Stony Point, NY (Rockland)
16.5″ – Hastings-On-Hudson, NY (Westchester)

New York City:
12.5″ – Pelham Parkway House, NY (Bronx)
12.5″ – Central Park, NY (Manhattan)
11.8″ – Bayside, NY (Queens)
10.5″ – Marine Park, NY (Brooklyn)

Long Island and South CT:
16.8″ – Darien, CT (Fairfield)
16.3″ – Bayville, NY (Nassau)
15.1″ – Commack, NY (Suffolk)
13.0″ – Naugatuck, CT (New Haven)
11.4″ – Durham, CT (Middlesex)
6.8″ – Colchester, CT (New London)

[Tornadocane]

4 minutes ago, Rittenhouse said:

Read the AFD. It says they believe the mix line will reach NYC. They even say that they doubt the city will verify as a true blizzard due to this mixing. They only kept the warning for the sake of continuity. Maybe they're just hedging their bets though

There's still so much uncertainty.  NYC might changeover for 3 hours.  Maybe 1 hour.  Maybe they don't changeover.  Maybe the low tracks 30 miles further east.  The whole situation is a wait and see situation for NYC.  If the low approaches far enough west as some models have indicated then the winds will certainly be strong enough to ascertain blizzard condition observations when the low pulls away and the precipitation changes back over to snow. 

 

[strgazr27]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

RGEM meteogram for NYC looks good. Look at those wind gusts though. Holy sh!t.

Those wind gusts are in Km/H. Peak looks to be 43-48 mph. 

[Tornadocane]

12 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i like a feb 2014 style snow gradient across the region

Thank you! Thnak you!  I was looking for this storm for about a half hour today. 

[sferic]

SREF 9:20

NAM 10:00

RGEM 11:20

GFS 11:30

UKIE 11:40

 

Let's hope !

[Snowlover11]

Tornado Warning down near Tampa, FL.  This baby is just getting started.  Pretty Impressive Cell.

[dmillz25]

4 minutes ago, Tornadocane said:

Thank you! Thnak you!  I was looking for this storm for about a half hour today. 

2014 was a great storm here honestly 

[Ericjcrash]

HRRR remains beautiful.

[RU848789]

32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The 18z runs are making me start to think the immediate coast, like where I am, is in danger of this being a pretty big bust. If we're already over to sleet by 8am like the NAM/Rgem are doing, when the real meat of the storm is just beginning, we might barely even make warning criteria much less a blizzard. The RGEM at 18z still gives JFK something like 12" of snow but the writing's on the wall IMO for a lousy outcome if these really amped meso models are right. The GFS is likely too warm at the surface, but it cut back a lot too from here east. Given that the NWS just this morning was still insisting on 12-18" here and people here are expecting a major snow event, getting maybe half that will come across as "so what", especially when there have likely been two blizzards here already this winter. The coastal front look on some of the models also gives me a 2/13/14 vibe where even Mineola might hang onto snow for a while after south of Sunrise Highway goes to sleet or even rain. The winds should stay northerly here but the coastal front pushing in a little might mean we sneak above 32 anyway and go to rain. Ahh well, it'll suck for me but it's March and we've had some other impressive winter storms this year. This one I'm getting the strong feeling just is breaking against this area late. 

 

I share your fear, especially given how the NWS was so freakin' slow in admitting that the Jan-2015 "blizzard" wasn't going to verify anywhere in NJ (especially west of the Parkway).  There were tons of posts around the start of the storm questioning their forecast and they didn't actually cut back for several hours after it was obvious we were toast.  

[JerseyWx]

Anyone know about these hourly graphs on Mt. Holly?  The nice part is, instead of choosing from the list on the right, you can click your location on the map or put in coordinates.

http://forecast.weather.gov/gridpoint.php?site=phi&TypeDefault=graphical

[tim]

33 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The 18z runs are making me start to think the immediate coast, like where I am, is in danger of this being a pretty big bust. If we're already over to sleet by 8am like the NAM/Rgem are doing, when the real meat of the storm is just beginning, we might barely even make warning criteria much less a blizzard. The RGEM at 18z still gives JFK something like 12" of snow but the writing's on the wall IMO for a lousy outcome if these really amped meso models are right. The GFS is likely too warm at the surface, but it cut back a lot too from here east. Given that the NWS just this morning was still insisting on 12-18" here and people here are expecting a major snow event, getting maybe half that will come across as "so what", especially when there have likely been two blizzards here already this winter. The coastal front look on some of the models also gives me a 2/13/14 vibe where even Mineola might hang onto snow for a while after south of Sunrise Highway goes to sleet or even rain. The winds should stay northerly here but the coastal front pushing in a little might mean we sneak above 32 anyway and go to rain. Ahh well, it'll suck for me but it's March and we've had some other impressive winter storms this year. This one I'm getting the strong feeling just is breaking against this area late. 

...couldnt agree more.. i'm even in worst location than you..i'm thinking 2-4 here and then over to slop.

very disappointing..and a huge bust.

[mimillman]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

 

I share your fear, especially given how the NWS was so freakin' slow in admitting that the Jan-2015 "blizzard" wasn't going to verify anywhere in NJ (especially west of the Parkway).  There were tons of posts around the start of the storm questioning their forecast and they didn't actually cut back for several hours after it was obvious we were toast.  

I don't quite think it will bust to that magnitude, but it certainly won't be the 12-20" they've been forecasting. I continue to think that New York sees on the order of 8-14", less south and east. Northern NJ will hit 2 feet, as will the Hudson Valley.

[Juliancolton]

Literally the entire atmosphere is going to be rising tomorrow. I don't think I've ever seen such deep ascent modeled. This is why midlatitude cyclones > hurricanes... so many distinct mechanisms working in concert at all layers of the atmosphere to evacuate air. 

 

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

 

I share your fear, especially given how the NWS was so freakin' slow in admitting that the Jan-2015 "blizzard" wasn't going to verify anywhere in NJ (especially west of the Parkway).  There were tons of posts around the start of the storm questioning their forecast and they didn't actually cut back for several hours after it was obvious we were toast.  

The storm's not here yet, so the colder HRRR might yet be right and we stick it out until late morning-if so, we could make a run for 12" or even more. But the coastal front, 2/13/14 look showing up on the RGEM raises alarm bells for me and anyone else on the immediate coast. And "bust" doesn't extend to the wind and coastal flooding, those will still be intense here. Hopefully we don't have too many power outages. 

[RU848789]

1 minute ago, mimillman said:

I don't quite think it will bust to that magnitude, but it certainly won't be the 12-20" they've been forecasting. I continue to think that New York sees on the order of 8-14", less south and east. Northern NJ will hit 2 feet, as will the Hudson Valley.

I didn't mean it would be that big of a bust, but that it would just take them a long time to reduce forecasted accumulations.  For example in Edison, the NWS map shows 20" or so and the blizzard warning text says 18-24", but I'll be happy with 12" of snow and 3" sleet - really don't want rain at all.  

[mimillman]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I didn't mean it would be that big of a bust, but that it would just take them a long time to reduce forecasted accumulations.  For example in Edison, the NWS map shows 20" or so and the blizzard warning text says 18-24", but I'll be happy with 12" of snow and 3" sleet - really don't want rain at all.  

I'm surprised the warning text there still says 18-24". Upton has done a good job to start rolling back accumulations and mentioning mixing. And of all media, the Weather Channel also has done a great job in rolling back accumulations. Tom Niziol specifically mentioned live that he sees the higher extent of NYC snow at around 12".

I also have to admit I'm surprised how this turned out. I was just sure just 3 days ago this set up was going to favor the Island and SE Mass.

[Drz1111]

9 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I don't quite think it will bust to that magnitude, but it certainly won't be the 12-20" they've been forecasting. I continue to think that New York sees on the order of 8-14", less south and east. Northern NJ will hit 2 feet, as will the Hudson Valley.

This is less than all guidance, even the ones showing the most mixing. 

[mimillman]

1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

This is less than all guidance, even the ones showing the most mixing. 

It may be, but 14" is higher than some of the guidance as well. I think this is a fine range at this point that highlights the risk of rain mixing in but also maintains the upside potential.

[Drz1111]

Just now, mimillman said:

It may be, but 14" is higher than some of the guidance as well. I think this is a fine range at this point that highlights the risk of rain mixing in but also maintains the upside potential.

8" is less than ALL guidance and 14" is less than MOST guidance.  It's a bad forecast unsupported by the models.  

[swamplover56]

Lot of freakouts by a few meso models lets at least get to the oz before we start bashing the nws and calling bust.

[Zelocita Weather]

47 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i like a feb 2014 style snow gradient across the region

That's the storm I was trying to compare this too....accum wise