RDRY Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Generally, that's not true in big nor'easters. There's a discussion of this in the K&U book. I actually don't know the physics of why it occurs; it might just be that the highest vertical velocities are associate with the zone right in front of the warm nose. Gotcha. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Sorry to ask but what did the 18Z GFS show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Dynamic cooling Knocking at my door but nobody's home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 25 minutes ago, Paragon said: Chris does this remind you somewhat of the second storm in February 1994? It does to me. That one also trended more west and eventually ended up changing to sleet at JFK but was all snow at NYC, but both places saw around or just over a foot of snow. EWR had the most with 17" and 31" on the ground because of the back to back storms. It looks like the Euro brings the sleet line to JFK around 13Z or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: It looks like the Euro brings the sleet line to JFK around 13Z or so. and it stays there until the end of the storm or moves back south after a couple of hours? Thinking it could be like Feb 1994, we mixed but our totals were similar to those of the Park, which stayed all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 HRRR still wants to use 195 as the R/S line. Wish we had some faith in it. 11" by 11AM for Middlesex County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, friedmators said: HRRR still wants to use 195 as the R/S line. Wish we had some faith in it. 11" by 11AM for Middlesex County. I think its rightish. Clearly shows these insane rates and accompanying dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Water vapor loop of our storm from landfall to the present... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: It looks like the Euro brings the sleet line to JFK around 13Z or so. Can you show me the soundings for LGA? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Some late model snowfall guesses: Scanton 23 Port Jervis 21 Albany 20 Hartford 16 Northern Shore LI areas 16, but just 12" Babylon and 7" by Montauk Pt. CPK, Newark 18", but my me 14", 50mph gusts, and 5' seas. Philly, DC 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Water vapor loop of our storm from landfall to the present... Thank you for that, let's all take a deep breath and take a moment to watch that and remember why we do this and love this. It's the beauty in getting lost and mesmerized by an image such as that. To watch a piece of energy trek across the hemisphere and wind up in what is about to be a memorable storm for many is one of just many of the reasons why I love this science and have been fascinated by it since longer than I can feasibly remember. Forget qpf and rain snow lines and who's backyard snow total is greater than someone else's and take a moment in pause to watch that loop over and over and appreciate the true awe and beauty of Mother Nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, JetsPens87 said: Thank you for that, let's all take a deep breath and take a moment to watch that and remember why we do this and love this. It's the beauty in getting lost and mesmerized by an image such as that. To watch a piece of energy trek across the hemisphere and wind up in what is about to be a memorable storm for many is one of just many of the reasons why I love this science and have been fascinated by it since longer than I can feasibly remember. Forget qpf and rain snow lines and who's backyard snow total is greater than someone else's and take a moment in pause to watch that loop over and over and appreciate the true awe and beauty of Mother Nature. Great post, thank you for your contribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 You know what we forgot we're very dry at this point so evaporative cooling will drop our temps initially, and once the storm begins bombing out (a.k.a bombogenesis) we will see dynamic cooling, resulting the precipitation rain/snow line to even drop more southeast! We can get a bit of sleet at the time when the low pressure is at its closest to our region but I expect that to turn back to heavy powdery snow as the CCB kicks in. I'm calling for 16 inches for Central Park and honestly think it's conservative. This is a lifetime storm, no matter how you look at it! Enjoy the snow fellas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Thank you for that, let's all take a deep breath and take a moment to watch that and remember why we do this and love this. It's the beauty in getting lost and mesmerized by an image such as that. To watch a piece of energy trek across the hemisphere and wind up in what is about to be a memorable storm for many is one of just many of the reasons why I love this science and have been fascinated by it since longer than I can feasibly remember. Forget qpf and rain snow lines and who's backyard snow total is greater than someone else's and take a moment in pause to watch that loop over and over and appreciate the true awe and beauty of Mother Nature. Best post of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, WeatherFeen2000 said: You know what we forgot we're very dry at this point so evaporative cooling will drop our temps initially, and once the storm begins bombing out (a.k.a bombogenesis) we will see dynamic cooling, resulting the precipitation rain/snow line to even drop more southeast! We can get a bit of sleet at the time when the low pressure is at its closest to our region but I expect that to turn back to heavy powdery snow as the CCB kicks in. I'm calling for 16 inches for Central Park and honestly think it's conservative. This is a lifetime storm, no matter how you look at it! Enjoy the snow fellas! The pros seem to think that the upper warm layer will not be as affected by dynamic cooling, hence the sleet and rain. That's my understanding anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: The pros seem to think that the upper warm layer will not be as affected by dynamic cooling, hence the sleet and rain. That's my understanding anyway. Upton doesn't seem to be on the warm train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Upton doesn't seem to be on the warm train. I'm in Mt Holly's area, and they are expressing concerns about mixing. See Sacrus' post earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The HRRR is sort of funny how the mix line keeps getting pushed back. I doubt it holds up that long but we will see as we get closer. In general the HRRR eventually catches on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Anyone familiar with the HRRRX? I googled it and found it on WeatherBell. In comparison to the regular HRRR it seems a little different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The HRRR is sort of funny how the mix line keeps getting pushed back. I doubt it holds up that long but we will see as we get closer. In general the HRRR eventually catches on Kind of makes sense how it really advances northward as precip rates decrease. 3k NAM shows the dynamic cooling similarly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NWS biting somewhat on changeover now. They have a 50% chance of FZRASNPL at JFK 15-18Z. No changeover forecast at LGA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 36 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Water vapor loop of our storm from landfall to the present... Simply incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 It's ridiculous how much snowier the 22Z HRRR is verse 21Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The HRRR is sort of funny how the mix line keeps getting pushed back. I doubt it holds up that long but we will see as we get closer. In general the HRRR eventually catches on 22z HRRR is incredible. Entire area crushed, even central Jersey. So much colder than other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Can someone with experience tell me if the low is where it was forecasted to be at this point. Or is it south or east of we're itwas modeled at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, winterwx21 said: 22z HRRR is incredible. Entire area crushed, even central Jersey. So much colder than other models. Yeah, and there's still more snow to come as well. The mix line is pretty far south. BTW, found this: Quote HRRRx is the experimental and advanced version of NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), which has been operational in the National Weather Service (NWS) only since 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Anyone familiar with the HRRRX? I googled it and found it on WeatherBell. In comparison to the regular HRRR it seems a little different. It's the next iteration currently in development. Each hour divisible by 3 is run out to 36 hours. Obviously the ESRL group thinks extended side of the HRRR range provides useful skill otherwise they wouldn't be attempting to double it from 18 hours to 36...at least with the experimental version anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, bdgwx said: It's the next iteration currently in development. Each hour divisible by 3 is run out to 36 hours. Obviously the ESRL group thinks extended side of the HRRR range provides useful skill otherwise they wouldn't be attempting to double it from 18 hours to 36...at least with the experimental version anyway. Thanks for the input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 One of the great things about this storm is that there should be almost no precipitation lost to virga. Using the HRRR as a reference, dewpoints are in the high 20s once appreciable precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: NWS biting somewhat on changeover now. They have a 50% chance of FZRASNPL at JFK 15-18Z. No changeover forecast at LGA though. The 18z runs are making me start to think the immediate coast, like where I am, is in danger of this being a pretty big bust. If we're already over to sleet by 8am like the NAM/Rgem are doing, when the real meat of the storm is just beginning, we might barely even make warning criteria much less a blizzard. The RGEM at 18z still gives JFK something like 12" of snow but the writing's on the wall IMO for a lousy outcome if these really amped meso models are right. The GFS is likely too warm at the surface, but it cut back a lot too from here east. Given that the NWS just this morning was still insisting on 12-18" here and people here are expecting a major snow event, getting maybe half that will come across as "so what", especially when there have likely been two blizzards here already this winter. The coastal front look on some of the models also gives me a 2/13/14 vibe where even Mineola might hang onto snow for a while after south of Sunrise Highway goes to sleet or even rain. The winds should stay northerly here but the coastal front pushing in a little might mean we sneak above 32 anyway and go to rain. Ahh well, it'll suck for me but it's March and we've had some other impressive winter storms this year. This one I'm getting the strong feeling just is breaking against this area late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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