JetsPens87 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, weatherpruf said: I don't think you are bullish on CNJ and I am taking you seriously and tempering my hopes. The models are not showing an epic snowstorm for us 6-12 isn't epic. I'm a little more worried about wind and heaviness of sleet infested snow when cleaning up. The folks further north this is your storm. I'll be happy if we get 8-12 here. I am not nor have I been bullish on CNJ. I've always believed NNJ/Seny/Greater New England will land this big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 850s and 700s look to remain below 0°C from Queens west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I am certainly riding close to the line here, I still expect a minimum of 14" with up to 18" possible and then some sleet accumulation but I don't think much higher or lower then those numbers at least for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Sportybx said: Wasn't there a storm last year, Where NYC shut down trains and schools and we got nothing at all like maybe a inch We got six inches, few years back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Wasn't there a storm last year, Where NYC shut down trains and schools and we got nothing at all like maybe a inch Went east at the last minute, but the writing had been on the wall. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 ROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 522 PM EDT MON MAR 13 2017 VALID 00Z TUE MAR 14 2017 - 00Z FRI MAR 17 2017 DAYS 1-3... FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MON EVENING WILL DELIVER WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS TO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST AS IT TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE COAST TUE-WED. WARM AIR WRAPPING IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM MAY HAMPER AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...INCLUDING THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MID-LEVEL ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC IS NOW DIVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN PHASING WITH SUBTROPICAL ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX. BY EARLY TUE THIS PHASED ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH...ASSUMING A NEGATIVE TILT AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE TUE...GRADUALLY PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW AS THE LOW DRIFTS EAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MON EVENING WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TUE BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUE EVENING. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 970S AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUE AFTERNOON-EVENING. WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WPC PREFERRED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THEIR THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH DAY 1 (ENDING 00 UTC WED)...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM DC TO COASTAL MAINE. WPC PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH RISK FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A FOOT OR MORE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PA...NORTHERN NJ...THE CATSKILLS AND HUDSON VALLEY REGION OF UPSTATE NY...NORTHERN CT...WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASS AND SOUTHERN NH AND VT. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL/BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK..WITH WARMER AIR WRAPPING FURTHER INLAND. MIXED PRECIPITATION NOW APPEARS MORE LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM DC TO BOS. HI-RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES FOR A CHANGEOVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION (SNOW/SLEET) ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN VA TO SOUTHEASTERN PA TUE MORNING AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ...CENTRAL AND EASTERN LONG ISL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE STORM TRACKS FURTHER NORTH. OF COURSE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED...WITH ANY SHIFT IN THE LOW TRACK LIKELY TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE TRANSITION ZONE. BY DAY 2 (ENDING 00 UTC THU)...THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CENTER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH RISK FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A FOOT OR MORE. IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SNOW...STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOURAGE DEVELOPING LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS...BOLSTERING AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY. BY DAY 3...WITH THE LOW TRACKING INTO ATLANTIC CANADA...SNOWS WILL BE LIMITED TO SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE WRAPAROUND AND SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: I am certainly riding close to the line here, I still expect a minimum of 14" with up to 18" possible and then some sleet accumulation but I don't think much higher or lower then those numbers at least for my area. I don't think so RT I think we are going to be a bit let down on this one, but what can you do. There is sound reasoning to think sleet is going to cut down those totals, it's a question of how much. This is what I am getting from reading here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: We got six inches, few years back He's talking about Juno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I am certainly riding close to the line here, I still expect a minimum of 14" with up to 18" possible and then some sleet accumulation but I don't think much higher or lower then those numbers at least for my area. You're in Edison/Metuchen, right? Im down the block. I'm on that borderline of hoping for 15" but with what Ive been seeing today, realistically expecting 8-12. Who knows right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM meteogram for NYC looks good. Look at those wind gusts though. Holy sh!t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, swamplover56 said: Please read what sacrus just posted post less and stop bittercasting Well what I saw from Sacrus indicates the NWS now sees sleet cutting down totals for a large portion of us, or maybe not. We have some pros here saying the same thing. I'm just east of the NJ tpk and if sleet is gonna get north of Monmouth ( and it looks that way ) then we're going to lose some significant inches. How much is in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Overrunning precip starting to blossom and push NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, weatherpruf said: Well what I saw from Sacrus indicates the NWS now sees sleet cutting down totals for a large portion of us, or maybe not. We have some pros here saying the same thing. I'm just east of the NJ tpk and if sleet is gonna get north of Monmouth ( and it looks that way ) then we're going to lose some significant inches. How much is in question. It says they are weighing the gfs heavily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: RGEM meteogram for NYC looks good. Look at those wind gusts though. Holy sh!t. Do you have that for Morristown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, swamplover56 said: Do you have that for Morristown? They never go above 0 at 850 or 2 m say that's pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Gorgeous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: RGEM meteogram for NYC looks good. Look at those wind gusts though. Holy sh!t. So why do the individual panels have so much pink over the city starting around 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Nope, Meteocentre doesn't have one for there. This is also for NYC; however, you can probably use this and take a few mm of sleet and change it to snow, since you're farther inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, swamplover56 said: They never go above 0 at 850 or 2 m say that's pretty good I suspect the real warm layer may be just above 850 given the track of the H7 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Showtime, looks like first flakes could fly in our S/W zones by 10pm or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: RGEM meteogram for NYC looks good. Look at those wind gusts though. Holy sh!t. Do you have this for the Piscataway NJ area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: So why do the individual panels have so much pink over the city starting around 12z? The one I posted later shows sleet mixing in as the storm winds down. The one I posted first only shows total accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 80km is about 50mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said: Showtime, looks like first flakes could fly in our S/W zones by 10pm or so... I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of us are snowing 10-11. Radar is blossoming WAA usually ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I'm in Massapequa. I expect it to switch to straight heavy rain during the day tomorrow. Most of southern Nassau and JFK are going to switch. I've never seen a bombing low so close to coast, not give those areas atleast sleet in these situations. I still remember being outside making a snowfort at noon on December 30, 2000 and being surprised at how instantaneous the precip switched from heavy snow to freezing rain. It was mere seconds. The midlevels are going to be above freezing for atleast two hours tomorrow for most of the Metro (excluding neighborhoods north of Central Park and east of the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: I suspect the real warm layer may be just above 850 given the track of the H7 low. It is. warmest layer at 800 on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Also folks I'd like to point out that typically your best snows fall around 75 and 100 miles NW of the 850 low and near there. So use that as a very very general rule of thumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, WaPo said: I'm in Massapequa. I expect it to switch to straight heavy rain during the day tomorrow. Most of southern Nassau and JFK are going to switch. I've never seen a bombing low so close to coast, not give those areas atleast sleet in these situations. I still remember being outside making a snowfort at noon on December 30, 2000 and being surprised at how instantaneous the precip switched from heavy snow to freezing rain. It was mere seconds. The midlevels are going to be above freezing for atleast two hours tomorrow for most of the Metro (excluding neighborhoods north of Central Park and east of the Hudson. I have seen that too. Like a switch was flipped. Thing is, you need to clean the snow you have before it gets saturated, or face serious health consequences if you are of a certain age. And that drives me nuts. I'd like to get an idea of when the switch will take place, in my area to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, weatherpruf said: I have seen that too. Like a switch was flipped. Thing is, you need to clean the snow you have before it gets saturated, or face serious health consequences if you are of a certain age. And that drives me nuts. I'd like to get an idea of when the switch will take place, in my area to sleet. Watch dual-pol radar tomorrow to get an idea of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, JetsPens87 said: Watch dual-pol radar tomorrow to get an idea of that. Thanks for that. You are actually giving people useful information. While it is fun to track storms, there are also some serious precautions that must be taken. Snowblowers don't work well with sleet and shoveling sleet or soaked snow can cause back injuries and worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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