NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Amazing how all the models are in solid agreement on a JP zone from about MMU to SWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Hrrr drops over 2" QPF by 6pm tomorrow and still cranking Out of curiosity, temps?Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Zelocita Weather said: How far N/E do you think significant mixing/changeover get? (talking losing more than 2-3" of accum to sleet/etc.) Significant? Right now the I95 corridor would be a good look for where SE of there would be losing significant amounts due to changeover/mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Amazing how all the models are in solid agreement on a JP zone from about MMU to SWF. And have been since early on in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The RGEM is trying to hint the last 2 runs that maybe some sort of deformation zone may form over the area 20z onward as the low pulls away. The low deepening down below 980 and taking that NE turn is opening the door to something in the late afternoon albeit the hope is slim at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Why does the Kochera show less in coastal areas than the standard 10:1 map? Us this due to picking up the sleet mix bringing down the ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Why does the Kochera show less in coastal areas than the standard 10:1 map? Us this due to picking up the sleet mix bringing down the ratios? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS is much colder than both the NAM and RGEM through 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Why does the Kochera show less in coastal areas than the standard 10:1 map? Us this due to picking up the sleet mix bringing down the ratios? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Why does the Kochera show less in coastal areas than the standard 10:1 map? Us this due to picking up the sleet mix bringing down the ratios? yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 With all this uncertainty where the professionals are still throwing up 20+ for NYC. The models being all over the place. Any chance at the last second this thing pushes east and everyone gets completely crushed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM is trying to hint the last 2 runs that maybe some sort of deformation zone may form over the area 20z onward as the low pulls away. The low deepening down below 980 and taking that NE turn is opening the door to something in the late afternoon albeit the hope is slim at the moment Yeah some of those death band depictions earlier today kind of made me think def zones and gravity waves. I hope to be outside during the crazy rate periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM Kuchera... show me southern right tip of Morris county on border of union and somerset... getting 18" and then 6 miles to my north getting 27". That seems a bit extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Sportybx said: With all this uncertainty where the professionals are still throwing up 20+ for NYC. The models being all over the place. Any chance at the last second this thing pushes east and everyone gets completely crushed? As much an equal chance it jogs further west and we are overcome with mid level warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Sportybx said: With all this uncertainty where the professionals are still throwing up 20+ for NYC. The models being all over the place. Any chance at the last second this thing pushes east and everyone gets completely crushed? Yes, see the GFS and HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: GFS is much colder than both the NAM and RGEM through 18. Too bad it's less reliable at this range than the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Thanks all. Shows coastal CT 20 without Kochera and only 14 with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, mikeysed said: RGEM Kuchera... show me southern right tip of Morris county on border of union and somerset... getting 18" and then 6 miles to my north getting 27". That seems a bit extreme That's what happens when you're right on the line (trust me I feel your pain: See my location) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Out of curiosity, temps? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk At the end of the HRRR run (14z) it shows 13 inches pretty far south in Mercer county NJ. It's definitely colder than NAM and RGEM, but HRRR isn't at its good range yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM is trying to hint the last 2 runs that maybe some sort of deformation zone may form over the area 20z onward as the low pulls away. The low deepening down below 980 and taking that NE turn is opening the door to something in the late afternoon albeit the hope is slim at the moment GFS is as well. Need to keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, JetsPens87 said: That's what happens when you're right on the line (trust me I feel your pain: See my location) I figured the Sleet line goes right to Rt 78 (per the RGEM run). I am verbatim 1 mile north of Rt 78 in between Exit 40 and 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Too bad it's less reliable at this range than the rgem Exactly at this range I'd feel infinitely more comfortable if it were the RGEM/Nam being the colder solutions vs. the Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Too bad it's less reliable at this range than the rgem And yet it has gotten storms right in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, JetsPens87 said: That's what happens when you're right on the line (trust me I feel your pain: See my location) I don't think you are bullish on CNJ and I am taking you seriously and tempering my hopes. The models are not showing an epic snowstorm for us 6-12 isn't epic. I'm a little more worried about wind and heaviness of sleet infested snow when cleaning up. The folks further north this is your storm. I'll be happy if we get 8-12 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, mikeysed said: I figured the Sleet line goes right to Rt 78 (per the RGEM run). I am verbatim 1 mile north of Rt 78 in between Exit 40 and 36. I'll be right there with you in berkley heights hey st least we are on top of the watchung mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: And yet it has gotten storms right in this range. Yea but not often can I recall it nailing down the mix line and thermal profiles better than the RGEM/Nam at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 At the end of the HRRR run (14z) it shows 13 inches pretty far south in Mercer county NJ. It's definitely colder than NAM and RGEM, but HRRR isn't at its good range yet. And rgem is correcting colder. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Wasn't there a storm last year, Where NYC shut down trains and schools and we got nothing at all like maybe a inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS actually warmed up a bit for central LI and southern NJ. Cuts back snow totals significantly for those areas, though remains consistent in NYC. It is still colder than RGEM and NAM, perhaps it's just working towards consensus though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: And yet it has gotten storms right in this range. It's all about the thermal profiles at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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