NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Paragon said: tis true- forgot about that- and yet the amount of snowfall was very similar (21-22 inches) Yep. Mixing isn't the kiss of death folks make it out to be. Ideally you're juuuuuuust on the other side of the line of the mixing but the highest totals in NYC in 1996 were on Staten Island, which generally saw some mixing. The increased rates before and after the mixing made up for the precip lost as sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: VVs will be so high that there will be a lot of dynamic cooling during peak intensity. Yeah. I guess that's right. There's more snowfall towards the east into LI this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Wow..the uncertainty..exciting but needs to start trending our way soonSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Any analysis on the RGEM? Looked much better than NAM thermals, but still a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That is one wicked right turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Why does it seem the rgem looks colder/snowier for borderline areas on tidbits site?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Drz1111 said: Yep. Mixing isn't the kiss of death folks make it out to be. Ideally you're juuuuuuust on the other side of the line of the mixing but the highest totals in NYC in 1996 were on Staten Island, which generally saw some mixing. The increased rates before and after the mixing made up for the precip lost as sleet. I don't even remember the mixing in that storm it was so epic who cared? And I am a stone's throw from SI. But there is mixing like Feb and March 07 storms too, but that was always progged from day one for us in those storms, which we hoped would be wrong....here I'm kinda scratching my head wondering just what to expect, and I do appreciate the analysis here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Manny said: Any analysis on the RGEM? Looked much better than NAM thermals, but still a mix. Those are some crazy 700vv being spit out but unfortunately my experience tells me models often underestimate mid level warmth. With that said, I don't see how anyone in the NY metro/Long Island/Cnj and possibly now even the 78 corridor don't changeover for a period with a low that tucked into the coast. Edit: Let me add to that that I believe while initially the mix line may be more uniform and approach from the SE, as time goes on it will become much less uniform and areas to your north could sleet while you snow depending on how much the VV and dynamic cooling can overcome the entrenched warm layer at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I'm starting to realize that the level of uncertainty at NWS Upton can be determined by looking at the experimental 'at least this much, at most this much' maps. As of now, according to those maps, SE Nassau can expect at least 1 inch and at most 20, so there you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM is absolutely sick.... NYC does absolutely fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 State of Emergency declared for NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NYC gets near a foot on the rgem before the sleet begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM is absolutely sick.... NYC does absolutely fine What are you seeing that's making it absolutely fine ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Yep. Mixing isn't the kiss of death folks make it out to be. Ideally you're juuuuuuust on the other side of the line of the mixing but the highest totals in NYC in 1996 were on Staten Island, which generally saw some mixing. The increased rates before and after the mixing made up for the precip lost as sleet. reminds me of Feb 1961- look up that storm- NYC saw 15 inches but JFK saw 24.1 inches even with several hours of sleet and rain in the middle of the storm- LE 2.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Those are some crazy 700vv being spit out but unfortunately my experience tells me models often underestimate mid level warmth. With that said, I don't see how anyone in the NY metro/Long Island/Cnj and possibly now even the 78 corridor don't changeover for a period with a low that tucked into the coast. THIS^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I guess at least the RGEM didn't trend warmer like the NAM. We're a few hours from the start of this here and my area could still have 5" or 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, weatherlogix said: THIS^ you arw greatly underestimating the affects of dynamic cooling, a surface wind that stays north of east, and storms that have impacted us like this in the past with high pressure in a similar area. I think 90% of this subforum sees 90% snow. mixing around mastic/mt sinai east on the island. sleet at the peak into nyc. no plain rain west of port jeff or north of ocean county nj imo. the "sensible weather" for this storm will be brutal everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 What are you seeing that's making it absolutely fine ?With those vv s, anything that's heavy is going to be frozen. Period. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: With those vv s, anything that's heavy is going to be frozen. Period. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Even if it mixes, your still over a foot lol... that's fine in and of itself haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, USCG RS said: With those vv s, anything that's heavy is going to be frozen. Period. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk I agree. This is even better for us, as less precip will be lost to sleet. The TT maps illustrate your point perfectly: as soon as precip lightens up, the changeover occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: With those vv s, anything that's heavy is going to be frozen. Period. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Right. Good to see the RGEM not tag along on with the 12K NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, e46and2 said: you arw greatly underestimating the affects of dynamic cooling, a surface wind that stays north of east, and storms that have impacted us like this in the past with high pressure in a similar area. I think 90% of this subforum sees 90% snow. mixing around mastic/mt sinai east on the island. sleet at the peak into nyc. no plain rain west of port jeff or north of ocean county nj imo. the "sensible weather" for this storm will be brutal everywhere. I have taken into account the effects of dynamic cooling trust me. But surface winds out of the NE will do little to help the midlevels. I have little doubt in a a changeover/mixing in the areas above though I do agree that it will not be as "bridge jumping" worthy as some are making it out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Any idea how much snow falls on the RGEM without sleet included for Central Park? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 You can see the mixing up to new Brunswick with amounts under 12" South of there. Mean while parts of the NJ/NY are destroyed, like 25 miles nw of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: I have taken into account the effects of dynamic cooling trust me. But surface winds out of the NE will do little to help the midlevels. I have little doubt in a a changeover/mixing in the areas above though I do agree that it will not be as "bridge jumping" worthy as some are making it out to be. How far N/W do you think significant mixing/changeover get? (talking losing more than 2-3" of accum to sleet/etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Hrrr drops over 2" QPF by 6pm tomorrow and still cranking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherfreeeeak said: Any idea how much snow falls on the RGEM without sleet included for Central Park? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 FWIW, the HRRR is significantly colder than the NAMs or RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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