RDRY Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, sferic said: No model runs later tonight can give us that answer? We have to wait in real time until 13z? These types of systems are so dynamic that surprises such as dramatic errors in rain/mix lines sometimes occur. Models are still slaves to nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Looks like NWS NYC bringing the 20" along the GSP up through Union/Essex then cutting into southern Bergen. BTW- Given how that overall map looks now, congrats to NWS New York on issuing the Blizz Watches days ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Reg NAM is wrong . There is so much convection the model warms up at 700. Its wrong . Can't resolve the latent heat release . Every layer is fine , use the PARA the NAM is retired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Interestingly they actually bumped up our totals while introducing more mix. That's probably what I'd go with for now on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Mt. Holly really bumped up totals in Northern areas. 20"+ for everyone with potential for 27"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: That's probably what I'd go with for now on LI. looks like were totals are shaved off by a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: That's probably what I'd go with for now on LI. Do you have the nj map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The changeover line will either get stuck forever south of JFK or it will blast north something awful right into NYC. We will know pretty quick what's going to happen. If it's not into JFK by 13Z we are looking good it will and I have the under 13Z at JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Do you have the nj map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: 20 in CNJ is a bold call and I assume they had the NAM info that's causing all the consternation here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, weatherpruf said: 20 in CNJ is a bold call and I assume they had the NAM info that's causing all the consternation here. It brings some calm to know they are being this bold. However I cannot get Feb 2015 out of my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: 20 in CNJ is a bold call and I assume they had the NAM info that's causing all the consternation here. They do not jump off cliffs at every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The changeover line will either get stuck forever south of JFK or it will blast north something awful right into NYC. We will know pretty quick what's going to happen. If it's not into JFK by 13Z we are looking good in my experience there are very few storms that mix at JFK that do not mix at NYC, and usually it takes about 2 hours for the mix line to traverse that distance. the two storms I can think of that mixed and changed to sleet at JFK but did not at NYC was the second storm in Feb 1994 (and JFK still got the same amount of snow as NYC or maybe even a little more, even though JFK changed to sleet and NYC did not) and the other one was December 2005, which was a total disaster east of the city, even on the north shore of LI- all rain here vs 6" of snow at NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 They put that out before the NAM was done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, swamplover56 said: They do not jump off cliffs at every model run. Just now, winterwarlock said: They put that out before the NAM was done Ah so it will be revised yet again..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Paragon said: in my experience there are very few storms that mix at JFK that do not mix at NYC, and usually it takes about 2 hours for the mix line to traverse that distance. the two storms I can think of that mixed and changed to sleet at JFK but did not at NYC was the second storm in Feb 1994 (and JFK still got the same amount of snow as NYC or maybe even a little more, even though JFK changed to sleet and NYC did not) and the other one was December 2005, which was a total disaster east of the city, even on the north shore of LI- all rain here vs 6" of snow at NYC 1996 mixed at JFK but not CPK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue sky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 An Amazing storm developing. Currently it is affecting and building into the northern two thirds of Florida to most of the great lakes. Reminds me of the 1993 super storm...which happened at about the same time. We won't come close to the low pressure in that storm. But wow...Area covered is incredible. Here is a like to Sarcus' great ob thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, weatherpruf said: Ah so it will be revised yet again..... Lol of course but not because of one nam run. This is too much lol the map would look exactly the same after the nam they looked at the entire 6z and 12z suites and are some of the best meteorological minds in our area. Meteorologists not modelologists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Looks like the NAM track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Considering the great NAM panic of 2017, the 18z RGEM has 1.1" of snow at Islip by tomorrow 6z. That is the entire figure shown on the NAM (12 km version). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: That frame at HR 21 was strange. Wasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: 1996 mixed at JFK but not CPK. tis true- forgot about that- and yet the amount of snowfall was very similar (21-22 inches) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: That frame at HR 21 was strange. Wasn't it? No, that's the thermal profiles crashing back southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: No, that's the thermal profiles crashing back southeast. Yeah. Then it spikes up again. Seems suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The RGEM looks much better even tho it mixes seems like a lot of snow before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Yeah. Then it spikes up again. Seems suspicious. VVs will be so high that there will be a lot of dynamic cooling during peak intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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