friedmators Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3k looks the best. Still some mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 That purple over northern New Jersey is mix or heavy snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: How is hour/frame 18 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: No, that bright purple is very intense snow. Sorry but it looks to me like sleet especially overlaid on top of the mid level temp maps you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, mike1984 said: That purple over northern New Jersey is mix or heavy snow? Mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think more likely than a 50/75 mile east track is that the warmth in the mid layers is overcome by the heavier precip rates and many areas near NYC just go SNPL or PLSN for periods of time. I do know they nobody is changing to rain outside of eastern LI. The surface wind component just doesn't support it on any model even if the model wants to show rain in some areas The 3k shows this to a tee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, JetsPens87 said: Sorry but it looks to me like sleet especially overlaid on top of the mid level temp maps you posted. That is sleet. It was on there before, but has been moving north. You can clearly see the separation between the snow/sleet/rain sectors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, JetsPens87 said: Sorry but it looks to me like sleet especially overlaid on top of the mid level temp maps you posted. Yeah but does a temperature profile like this even make sense? By this hour the mid-levels are cooling rapidly. Three hours later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just look at this ridiculous band forecasted to cross the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 All these NAM runs still are printing out 15-25" of snow for us on their own snow maps. Could be what JetsPens is saying that the 850 get to about 0/+1C, and thats about it at the warmest. And combined with intense bombogenisis, will still be mostly snow or snow/sleet mix for a time (a la 1996). Is there anyway to show Kuchera on these NAM snow maps, that would take into account sleet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 If you ask me the main way this can bust in NE NJ and NYC proper is the 07-12Z window badly underperforms. Nobody ever really sees rates over 1 inch per hour, bad snow growth etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Yeah but does a temperature profile like this even make sense? By this hour the mid-levels are cooling rapidly. Three hours later The only thing I can think of is that the nam is trying to depict the entire column crashing frantically due to dynamic cooling and on the NW side of that process the warm air that has already filtered in can't be overcome since there won't be as much dynamic cooling at that time (subsidence). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Its the battle of the nams it's like people don't even look for themselves. The 32k and the 3k are much colder and east vs the 12k and 4k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 They upgraded Orange and Passaic Counties URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 416 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 ...Major Winter Storm Late Tonight into Tuesday Evening... NJZ002-NYZ067-068-140430- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.W.0004.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/ /O.EXA.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/ Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam- 416 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Blizzard Warning, which is in effect from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Tuesday night. * Locations...Orange and Putnam counties in New York and Western Passaic County in New Jersey. * Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and Blizzard Conditions. * Snow Accumulations...18 to 24 inches with locally higher amounts. * Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour early Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. * Timing...Late tonight into Tuesday evening. * Impacts...Dangerous travel due to whiteout conditions at times. Several roads may become impassable. * Winds...Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Temperatures...In the lower 20s. * Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded...stay with your vehicle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, friedmators said: 3k looks the best. Still some mixing. seems to match the latest Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: If you ask me the main way this can bust in NE NJ and NYC proper is the 07-12Z window badly underperforms. Nobody ever really sees rates over 1 inch per hour, bad snow growth etc etc. We'll know by 12z which is correct. Most models have the 0C line still a good bit south of Long Island then but the NAM is crashing it north. Heck, it gets zeroish 850s to N NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The 4km and 3km still bring big snow totals into the city - the 32 and 12 don't (actually, I'm not sure about the 32 - tropicaltidbits doesn't include precip amounts). I would think the RGEM can be the deciding judge for the short-range forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Yeah but does a temperature profile like this even make sense? By this hour the mid-levels are cooling rapidly. Three hours laterNo it doesn't. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, RDRY said: The 4km and 3km still bring big snow totals into the city - the 32 and 12 don't. I would think the RGEM can be the deciding judge for the short-range forecast. how much do they give nyc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We'll know by 12z which is correct. Most models have the 0C line still a good bit south of Long Island then but the NAM is crashing it north. Heck, it gets zeroish 850s to N NJ. lol JM I have a feeling that this is a nowcasting thing, just like it was with storms of the past. Models historically do not handle mix or changeover lines well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, weatherfreeeeak said: RGEM? 10-15 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: lol JM I have a feeling that this is a nowcasting thing, just like it was with storms of the past. Models historically do not handle mix or changeover lines well. The changeover line will either get stuck forever south of JFK or it will blast north something awful right into NYC. We will know pretty quick what's going to happen. If it's not into JFK by 13Z we are looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 This 700mb vort pass coincides with the dynamic cooling shown on the 4km NAM. Easy to see why the mid-levels crash, as VVs would be off the charts. These maps are far more valuable than snow maps or precip type radars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If you ask me the main way this can bust in NE NJ and NYC proper is the 07-12Z window badly underperforms. Nobody ever really sees rates over 1 inch per hour, bad snow growth etc etc. What are temps in the snow growth region, somewhere between 750-600 for NYC and JFK? I'm guessing less than optimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 This is going to be such an exciting storm to watch unfold, it will be such a dynamic event with some surprises in store I am sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, triniiphone said: how much do they give nyc? The 4km looks like a foot in the city, less east. The 3km has well over a foot, even through most of LI. The 12km has maybe half a foot in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: What are temps in the snow growth region, somewhere between 750-600 for NYC and JFK? I'm guessing less than optimal. Last I checked on 12z guidance they were -9C on average around 06-08Z but they moved quickly towards -2 to -3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Lol Interestingly they actually bumped up our totals while introducing more mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The changeover line will either get stuck forever south of JFK or it will blast north something awful right into NYC. We will know pretty quick what's going to happen. If it's not into JFK by 13Z we are looking good No model runs later tonight can give us that answer? We have to wait in real time until 13z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Last I checked on 12z guidance they were -9C on average around 06-08Z but they moved quickly towards -2 to -3 And at -2/-3 you aren't getting good growth and ratios will be horrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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