WintersGrasp Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 HRRR has a much slower progression of the warmth than the 12k NAM and I am going to favor that model in this time frame. And it actually surges the warmth north until about 11Z, then it starts to sink back south. Makes it almost to 195.I've found the HRRR to be terrible with rain/snow lines and at picking up mixing. I would always trust the NAM, especially within 24 hours with that, although it doesn't necessarily support what id like to see here. 12z NAM is a sleetfest for NENJ S and ESent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, WintersGrasp said: I've found the HRRR to be terrible with rain/snow lines and at picking up mixing. I would always trust the NAM, especially within 24 hours with that, although it doesn't necessarily support what id like to see here. 12z NAM is a sleetfest for NENJ S and E Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro And would be a huge letdown if true. How much sleet would we be looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, WintersGrasp said: I've found the HRRR to be terrible with rain/snow lines and at picking up mixing. I would always trust the NAM, especially within 24 hours with that, although it doesn't necessarily support what id like to see here. 12z NAM is a sleetfest for NENJ S and E Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro It used to be horrible for sure. I can't really comment on it currently but I will concede to you guys. 4k is warm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Major differences between the 32k and the 12 k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Includes sleet which would remove a significant portion of that, especially NENJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The HRRR is not designed to handle situations like a rain snow line. It's main use for tomorrow would be where the greatest banding will occur. And it's very unreliable beyond 6 hours. I mean I'd give it a little more credit in terms of forecasting beyond 6 hours, but yes I agree, the model does well with banding as we've seen in prior snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12km NAM appears to be 6-8" in and around the NYC area prior to any mixing/changeover (up to hour 18). If the NAM is correct, accumulating snow stops at hour 18Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Hopefully that was just a burp NAM run. That's why the forecast for the NYC area and Long Island is so tough. That NAM would probably be less than 6" even in the city, and what falls on the immediate shore mainly gets washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 What is the the show totals on the 18z NAM 12km for Central Park, without sleet included? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 It's the GFS, CMC, UKMET, Euro, EPS, SREFs, German, and RGEM against the NAM. I know what camp I'm favoring. Not saying that it's wrong, but it's kind of on an island in terms of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Now THOSE panels show southeasterlies. That's a Sleety Gonzalez solution. Ageostrophic NE winds under screaming SE winds. Might even FZRN. 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That is essentially a rain event for most of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Hopefully that was just a burp NAM run. That's why the forecast for the NYC area and Long Island is so tough. That NAM would probably be less than 6" even in the city, and what falls on the immediate shore mainly gets washed away.With that convection down south really pumping the heights... I could see this happening. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The 18z Nam is just another piece of guidance. While the NAM hasn't been awful leading up to the storm, it hasn't been the most reliable. You have the Euro and UK, Gem, ensembles pretty much locked in for the past 24-36 hours. Fine tuning details, jack pot locations, etc will be worked out; but no need to run for the nearest bridge or to start building an Ark. The coast and the island may taint for a while, but this has been evident in most models. FWIW the water vapor loop is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Isn't the 4K NAM superior to the 12K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 750mb +2 at 18Z over KNYC on the 18Z NAM elsewhere below 0C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The column collapses and flips some areas back to real heavy snow as the low moves up to our latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, USCG RS said: With that convection down south really pumping the heights... I could see this happening. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk I have to think that's overdone based on the 12z models largely ticking colder, but that run is definitely concerning. For the coast there's no denying that was a bad run. Let's see if the other 18z models go the same way-if so we may be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Violentweatherfan said: Isn't the 4K NAM superior to the 12K and the 3K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Violentweatherfan said: Isn't the 4K NAM superior to the 12K I honestly use the 32K most of the time. I find the 4 and the 12 to just be doing odd things more often. Not that the 32 doesn't either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Violentweatherfan said: Isn't the 4K NAM superior to the 12K Mixing into the city by 13z Meanwhile that purple over NNJ is very heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Mixing into the city by 13z Meanwhile that purple over NNJ is very heavy snow How is hour/frame 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I have to think that's overdone based on the 12z models largely ticking colder, but that run is definitely concerning. For the coast there's no denying that was a bad run. Let's see if the other 18z models go the same way-if so we may be in trouble. I personally don't buy it, just could see it. This is what I said to a friend of mine who works as a forecaster. I still think this goes about 50 miles east, but I also think this storm will be down to 975-970 around our latitude if not possibly lower I actually buy a gfs solution. And I can not believe I'm actually siding with the gfs The fact that the gfs, normally the warmest model, is the coldest/snowiest is a huge red flag imo. EDIT : Forgot this. Here's the other thing ppl are not considering as well. If this storm intensifies more quickly, it being tucked won't matter nearly as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: It's the GFS, CMC, UKMET, Euro, EPS, SREFs, German, and RGEM against the NAM. I know what camp I'm favoring. Not saying that it's wrong, but it's kind of on an island in terms of warmth. No it really isn't. Every model has mid levels in terrible position. As we get closer models, especially the meso'sare picking up on the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Includes sleet which would remove a significant portion of that, especially NENJ The NAM has a lot of mixing for the I-78 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: I personally don't buy it, just could see it. This is what I said to a friend of mine who works as a forecaster. I still think this goes about 50 miles east, but I also think this storm will be down to 975-970 around our latitude if not possibly lower I actually buy a gfs solution. And I can not believe I'm actually siding with the gfs The fact that the gfs, normally the warmest model, is the coldest/snowiest is a huge red flag imo. EDIT : Forgot this. Here's the other thing ppl are not considering as well. If this storm intensifies more quickly, it being tucked won't matter nearly as much I'm pretty sure the GFS typically has a cold bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Interesting Depiction, possible sleet/rimmed snow in Sussex/Morris County, while snowing heavily in S NJ/Delaware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Mixing into the city by 13z Meanwhile that purple over NNJ is very heavy snow Isn't that sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Zelocita Weather said: Interesting Depiction, possible sleet/rimmed snow in Sussex/Morris County, while snowing heavily in S NJ/Delaware No, that bright purple is very intense snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: I personally don't buy it, just could see it. This is what I said to a friend of mine who works as a forecaster. I still think this goes about 50 miles east, but I also think this storm will be down to 975-970 around our latitude if not possibly lower I actually buy a gfs solution. And I can not believe I'm actually siding with the gfs The fact that the gfs, normally the warmest model, is the coldest/snowiest is a huge red flag imo. EDIT : Forgot this. Here's the other thing ppl are not considering as well. If this storm intensifies more quickly, it being tucked won't matter nearly as much I think more likely than a 50/75 mile east track is that the warmth in the mid layers is overcome by the heavier precip rates and many areas near NYC just go SNPL or PLSN for periods of time. I do know they nobody is changing to rain outside of eastern LI. The surface wind component just doesn't support it on any model even if the model wants to show rain in some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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