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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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Reading in the NE forum that it came west from 12z and involves the northern stream more. Honestly, I'd rather the southern stream stay as alive as possible because that will drag the system to the east. If the northern stream digs in too much, it will amplify the trough and cause a track like the GFS.

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1 minute ago, F5TornadoF5 said:

Looks great for everyone.

IMG_0951.PNG

Yeah... wow. We all would get demolished from that. If we see a wrapped up low like this, the actual track can come pretty close to the coast and we remain snow because of the cold air wrapping in. The only people this map would be a problem for would be on Cape Cod. 

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56 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

 

I could be wrong, but based on the western spread on the Eps... and what we've seen with the Gefs/ukie this far, I expect a slight shift west on euro.. not much... certainly nothing like the GFS... but my faith is leaning on a

Virginia shore 

To Delmarva 

NE shot to east of ACY

and a straight beeline to SE of Long Island to the south Cape... I don't like it coming off Delmarva as far offshore and south and taking a benchmark mark track from there....

 

my first call would be widespread 12-18" for everyone in this sub, if we go east the interior will certainly keep up using better ratios to compensate 

I didn't jynx it for once lol

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yeah... wow. We all would get demolished from that. If we see a wrapped up low like this, the actual track can come pretty close to the coast and we remain snow because of the cold air wrapping in. The only people this map would be a problem for would be on Cape Cod. 

I'm going to use the Millenium storm as the analog....... the storm tracked to Islip and we still saw all snow :)

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The Euro was an awesome run, but the northern stream diving in should be watched. If that trend continues and the southern stream loses out, we will see further ticks west towards the GFS. But I think the NYC area can afford some more wiggle room west. Tomorrow night and Sunday's runs are crucial as the systems should finally be over land. 

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