March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential

[Rjay]

[Bluescat1]

A pro met in another forum said most of E PA and Mercer County NJ north are going to be upgraded to blizzard warnings.

 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Manny said:

So 12-20" nyc still a good call? Or 12-18"

I'm going with 12-18. IF the system tracks farther east than projected or has more cold air, NYC will mix less and dynamics at 700mb will be more favorable. In that case, amounts could exceed 18". 12-18" is a really safe bet, though.

[Paragon]

Just now, bluewave said:

Boxing Day produced the biggest drifts in Long Beach for me since the Feb 78 blizzard.

 

Yeah, I think those are the only two verified blizzards we've had in the 2000s- I don't think PD2 qualified as such.

 

[Zelocita Weather]

3 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

WSW Cancelled, Blizzard Warnings now up for PA and NW Burbs:
Issuing Office: Philadelphia
Source: National.Weather.Service

3:00pm EDT, Mon Mar 13

... BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS... EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES... HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. * ACCUMULATIONS... SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES. * TIMING... SNOW BEGINS BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WARNING AREA, BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF THREE TO FOUR INCHES PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. * IMPACTS... THE HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE AND MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW, REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS... NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * VISIBILITIES... LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER MILE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. * TEMPERATURES... IN THE MID 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS... MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL... HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED... STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. &&
More Information

... AN EXTREME SITUATION IS DEVELOPING FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AS A MAJOR COASTAL STORM INTERRUPTS OUR USUAL DAILY ROUTINES ON TUESDAY... .A VERY STRONG WINTER STORM COULD BE LIFE THREATENING FOR THOSE WHO DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO SAFETY PRECAUTIONS TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING WILL BECOME AN INTENSE STORM AS IT MOVES EAST OF NEW JERSEY MIDDAY TUESDAY. SWATHS OF EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE TRACK OF THE STORM. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED.

Never have seen Blizzard warnings so expansive and inland

[Paragon]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm going with 12-18. IF the system tracks farther east than projected or has more cold air, NYC will mix less and dynamics at 700mb will be more favorable. In that case, amounts could exceed 18". 12-18" is a really safe bet, though.

20" is probably a reasonable ceiling for NYC.  I'd go with 15-20 for NYC and 12-18 for Nassau.

[Rjay]

Sref

[Blizzardo]

6 minutes ago, Manny said:

So 12-20" nyc still a good call? Or 12-18"

12-20 or 12-18? Does it really matter at that point?

[NJwx85]

This is the Canadian ensembles for NYC. As you can see it has about 2-4mm of precip lost to rain around 18z and a little bit lost to sleet before that. That's not bad at all.

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

This is the Canadian ensembles for NYC. As you can see it has about 2-4mm of precip lost to rain around 18z and a little bit lost to sleet before that. That's not bad at all.

Yeah that's only like 2-3" of snow that gets lost.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

 

Can we we all just agree this is an epic Sat image

 

[sferic]

Do 18z or 0z  runs matter or do we have a good handle on things and time to watch radars and look at the hrrr ?

Guesses on NYC start time and duration ?

[Manny]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This is the Canadian ensembles for NYC. As you can see it has about 2-4mm of precip lost to rain around 18z and a little bit lost to sleet before that. That's not bad at all.

And most likely towards the end of the storm 

[brooklynwx99]

At the height of the storm, the 15z SREF is colder and more robust than 09z.

15z

09z

 

 

[Drz1111]

1 minute ago, Manny said:

Lol no not at all. 

Another point to remember is that a little mixing isn't the end of the world, if it's a trade for crazy rates as a result of the strong WAA.  Many of the legendary NYC storms had some sleet or rain for a brief period.   If NYC is 15" with 60mph gusts and an hour of mix on the backend, that's a hell of a storm (and more disruptive than a long-duration 20" with no wind). 

[ILoveWinter]

2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Another point to remember is that a little mixing isn't the end of the world, if it's a trade for crazy rates as a result of the strong WAA.  Many of the legendary NYC storms had some sleet or rain for a brief period.   If NYC is 15" with 60mph gusts and an hour of mix on the backend, that's a hell of a storm (and more disruptive than a long-duration 20" with no wind). 

Totally agree.  Though NYC will end up with less than the Jan 2016 storm, I think this one will be far more exciting and dynamic.

[weatherlogix]

48 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

100% accurate. Anything north of LIE has a much better chance of staying all snow. 

maybe im missing something but this has less to do with surface features and more to do h85-h7. The placement of the low centers is what is going to determine snow vs. sleet vs. rain. I would bet my bottom $ if it's raining in FOK its doing something other than snow on the north shore on E LI.

There is a reason max QPF is consistently in the HV and surrounding areas. The mid level lows are in great position for them; not for us.

[Jersey Andrew]

This storm may make a run at Great White Hurricane of 1888. Not the duration or universal high snow amounts for all the boroughs but in intensity and wind coverage. Also, that storm started as rain in New York City .5 precipitation over to snow 1.45 liquid and 21 inches of snow though upwards of 30 around Manhattan. My guess is Central Park comes in at 14 inches, 17 at Newark, 20 IMBY near Paramus, NJ.

[L.I.Pete]

2 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Totally agree.  Though NYC will end up with less than the Jan 2016 storm, I think this one will be far more exciting and dynamic.

We got about an hour or more of sleet at the height of the Feb 2013 storm and still ended up with 30 inches. Some of the heaviest precip I've ever seen.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Boxing Day produced the biggest drifts in Long Beach for me since the Feb 78 blizzard. 

 

That was an insane storm In lb. I don not think we see that kind of drifting do to the nature of the snow. But the effects will be worse with winds of similar (possibly even stronger) magnitude. I have been pushing the power outage idea hard for good reason. Being without power for a couple days after a blizzard is a hell of allot worse then after a tropical system. If we can get gusts to 70 with wet snow caked on everything there will almost certainly be major crippling outages 

[ILoveWinter]

Just copied this from the NE thread, 10"/hour rate in northwestern CT per the 4K NAM! That's nuts.

 

[weatherlogix]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I would be wary about using any kind of snow map. That's why I'm asking about the mid level lows and temps in the column. If they trended in a better direction, that's what I care about.

Exactly what I have been saying all day.

I am still waiting on information on a storm that had the h7 low take a similar path and we (NYC and points east) received 12+" of snow.

[weatherlogix]

20 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Sref

for LI that looks juicier than it was in the previous run, correct?

[Joe4alb]

8 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

maybe im missing something but this has less to do with surface features and more to do h85-h7. The placement of the low centers is what is going to determine snow vs. sleet vs. rain. I would bet my bottom $ if it's raining in FOK its doing something other than snow on the north shore on E LI.

There is a reason max QPF is consistently in the HV and surrounding areas. The mid level lows are in great position for them; not for us.

I can count more times than i care to remember when it was sleeting/raining in Southampton and snowing like crazy in Aquebogue.  So yes, it does happen and quite often too. 

[gravitylover]

4 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Just copied this from the NE thread, 10"/hour rate in northwestern CT per the 4K NAM! That's nuts.

 

That has me at 8-9 for a while.  

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

for LI that looks juicier than it was in the previous run, correct?

Yes and colder too are the surface and 850mb.  

[weatherlogix]

4 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

I can count more times than i care to remember when it was sleeting/raining in Southampton and snowing like crazy in Aquebogue.  So yes, it does happen and quite often too. 

I am not saying it can't happen. I know it's happened. It just hasn't happened frequently with the h7 low centered over Putnam county. The sleet and/or rain will probably be uniform across E LI (that would be my guess). Remember it's not the surface winds that are warming the atmosphere; in that case the warmer air can get to FOK and never get all the way to Aquabogue.

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

for LI that looks juicier than it was in the previous run, correct?

Here are the 2 warmest frames

[Wetbulbs88]

Grew up in Ellicott City, 20 mins west of Baltimore. Most insane rates and wind I've seen are PDII (mainly the overrunning actually, precip shield was shaped like an antiquated gun barrel firehosing over the Appalachians before the coastal cranked up hereabouts) and Feb 5 2010 (which I know is blasphemous to cite around here, but that was #1 all-time no questions asked for me).

I think this will be the most fun storm I've seen since either of those. I haven't seen it pour wet snow and lightning since March '01, when I was twelve years old. Don't worry about the numbers in a storm like this. The dynamics will offer so much more -- rates, wind, intensity, etc. Set your alarms early and enjoy this one, it's a rarity of its own nuanced class. 

[weatherlogix]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Yes and colder too are the surface and 850mb.  

The plumes for JFK are still under 10"