Joe4alb Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: I could see the North shore of Suffolk staying mostly snow while areas like the Hamptons pour rain tomorrow afternoon. 100% accurate. Anything north of LIE has a much better chance of staying all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This was from like 9AM. I still think it's a good forecast. It's a very decent forecast. Now waiting for Tony (Sacrus) to update the LE amounts for the Euro to match the other 12z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I could see the North shore of Suffolk staying mostly snow while areas like the Hamptons pour rain tomorrow afternoon. Yeah the Hamptons and the forks (especially the south fork) are in their own zone with this. But the western part of southern Nassau can come close to matching the city in this kind of scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Euro is 20" for NYC using 10:1 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: 100% accurate. Anything north of LIE has a much better chance of staying all snow. I don't think any part of Long Island will be all snow, but it could be more like 80% snow (west) vs 60% snow (central) vs 30% snow (east). Computing snowfall projections based on 10:1 ratios and 2.0" LE to keep things simple that would be 16" in extreme western Nassau, about 12" in western Suffolk (which is central Long Island) and 6" out by Montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I know it's a bit out of their range but the mix line reaches the Philly area by 6am on the HRRR and RAP. Then it stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12z NAVGEM looks really solid. Long duration too with wrap around snows lasting until evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Can you post the surface wind gusts? Sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, triniiphone said: Euro is 20" for NYC using 10:1 ratio what's the total QPF? 2.0"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, triniiphone said: Euro is 20" for NYC using 10:1 ratio It's 15-20 using a 10:1 map 8-12 using the Kochera map I still think 12 + is a good call for the area with the storm ending as sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, triniiphone said: Euro is 20" for NYC using 10:1 ratio DO 850's go above 32? for how long if so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Sure wow 81 out in the Hamptons! I'd still rather have more snow though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Sure Thank you. Some of these gusts are approaching Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Thank you. Some of these gusts are approaching Boxing Day. Close to 70 mph well into NJ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Sure seems the stronger gusts have moved more inland than previous runs. its gunna be amazing looking out that window tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: seems the stronger gusts have moved more inland than previous runs. its gunna be amazing looking out that window tomorrow morning. Taking pictures will be tough when you can't see anything outside! I experienced that in last year's blizzard too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Yikes over a foot of heavy wet snow with gusts in the 60s, that's a recipe for disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 70 mph gusts along the NJ coast... not gonna be pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Anyone have the eurowx map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Nice and cold....34/2 split in Newark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 When do the the better short-range models come out and when should we really start looking at them? I don't think it's around anymore but what happened to the SUNY MM5? That model was always spot on when it came time to use it during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: Sure Chris, if I'm not mistaken our last two verified blizzards were Jan 2016 and Boxing Day 2010? Jan 2016 was actually verified blizzard for six straight hours at JFK and Boxing Day 2010 was verified blizzard there too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: Sure If that verifies with ~70MPH over Staten Island, we are going to have major power issues.....99% of our power lines are above ground and with all of the trees + a heavy wet snow.........could be very significant outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: When do the the better short-range models come out and when should we really start looking at them? I don't think it's around anymore but what happened to the SUNY MM5? That model was always spot on when it came time to use it during the storm. it was great with banding! I think it was still around for Boxing Day! Possibly renamed or something- maybe the ARW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: When do the the better short-range models come out and when should we really start looking at them? I don't think it's around anymore but what happened to the SUNY MM5? That model was always spot on when it came time to use it during the storm. I like using the HRRR to tell you the truth. I think the RAP is decent too, but I have no experience with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 WSW Cancelled, Blizzard Warnings now up for PA and NW Burbs: Issuing Office: Philadelphia Source: National.Weather.Service 3:00pm EDT, Mon Mar 13 ... BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS... EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES... HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. * ACCUMULATIONS... SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES. * TIMING... SNOW BEGINS BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WARNING AREA, BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF THREE TO FOUR INCHES PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. * IMPACTS... THE HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE AND MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW, REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS... NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * VISIBILITIES... LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER MILE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. * TEMPERATURES... IN THE MID 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS... MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL... HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED... STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. && More Information ... AN EXTREME SITUATION IS DEVELOPING FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AS A MAJOR COASTAL STORM INTERRUPTS OUR USUAL DAILY ROUTINES ON TUESDAY... .A VERY STRONG WINTER STORM COULD BE LIFE THREATENING FOR THOSE WHO DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO SAFETY PRECAUTIONS TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING WILL BECOME AN INTENSE STORM AS IT MOVES EAST OF NEW JERSEY MIDDAY TUESDAY. SWATHS OF EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE TRACK OF THE STORM. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Others would disagree but i'm very excited for these winds.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 So 12-20" nyc still a good call? Or 12-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, Paragon said: Chris, if I'm not mistaken our last two verified blizzards were Jan 2016 and Boxing Day 2010? Jan 2016 was actually verified blizzard for six straight hours at JFK and Boxing Day 2010 was verified blizzard there too? Boxing Day produced the biggest drifts in Long Beach for me since the Feb 78 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 can someone post the kuchera euro map here or in the banter thread...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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