North and West of Town Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Doubt you see anything but snow in Morristown. Maybe a little sleet or frz for the last hour as precip shuts off Thanks! Are you closer to Mt. Tabor or to Troy Hills? That might matter; even better if you're on Watnong Mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: Individual ensembles are riding with the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, TriPol said: Remember the Valentines Day storm of 2007 that turned into a massive sleetfest? The h7 low center is taking a track very similar to that storm. This storm has a better 850 track, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, North and West of Town said: Thanks! Are you closer to Mt. Tabor or to Troy Hills? That might matter; even better if you're on Watnong Mountain. Troy hills but I'll be riding out the storm at the girlfriends in berkley heights. Trading 10 miles of latitude for 130 feet of elevation lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Mt Holly disco talks about the sleet potential from 5AM-10AM from Philly all the way up to New Brunswick that could limit totals http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Nasty no`easter will hammer our region Tuesday morning. Everyone northwest of I-95 (e PA and nw NJ especially RDG to Lehigh valley to Somerville north) should be thinking about sheltering in place from around 2 AM to 2 PM...in other words no unnecessary travel. Follow the advice of local officials. If you must travel, it is recommended that you have a safety packet with you, including warm clothing, bottled water and a fully charged cell phone. This high impact relatively short duration nor`easter threatens to shut down many roads for a time Tuesday morning, northwest of I-95 due to snowfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour along with blowing and drifting of a relatively dry snow. I-95: GFS colder thermal profiles vs the NAM/RGEM thermal profiles. We opt for the warmer mesoscale models which continue to indicate that sleet will be the primary precipitation type for several hours between 5 am and 10 am (one half to 1 inch amounts of sleet possible) along and southeast of I-95, playing havoc with snow amount forecasting. This includes the Wilmington to Philadelphia to New Brunswick stretch eastward. if there is no change to sleet... snowfall easily exceeds 15 inches. For now we go with the lower snowfall sleet mix. For the coast vicinity of Atlantic City southward through southeastern New Jersey and coastal Delaware...a bit of snow to start, enough to make it slippery, then over to heavy rain with poor drainage street flooding near daybreak as well as coastal flooding and scattered damaging wind gusts to 55 or 60 mph, then sleet mixes in toward forenoon and ends as snow midday or early afternoon. Challenging to say the least. Power outages are likely, particularly closer to the NJ coast, due to the combination of high winds and heavy snow. Warnings have not changed since the 330 am issuance and expect no changes til our 330 PM update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: We've been here before.... models overdo 850 line, and 2mt, especially with such a dynamic set-up, it wouldn't surprise me... rates alone could easily keep LI, NYC all snow, and pounding snow for that matter.. WAA snows always come In harder and faster than modeled... I think people need to stop looking at surface reflection, and R/s lines on Global's 12 hours before go time lol... I think i flip to rain for 2 hours or so after a solid 15", which i will gladly take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On to 12z 3/13 QPF range NYC area / Snowfall SREF: 1.50 - 1.75 / 10 - 18" (mixing) NAM: 2.00 - 2.15 / 12 - 18" (mixing) PNAM: 2.15 - 2.30 : 14 - 20" (less mixing) GFS: 1.50 - 1.75 / 12 - 22 " (mostly snow) GEFS: RHEM: 2.00 - 2.15 / 10 - 18" (mixing) GGEM: 2.25 - 2.45 / 12 - 22inches GGEM-ENS: UKMET: 2.45 - 2.50 / 12 - 18 inches (mixing) ECM: ECM-EPS: JMA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: I think i flip to rain for 2 hours or so after a solid 15", which i will gladly take. Nobody's escaping 12-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Euro is still west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nobody's escaping 12-18" I'll be thrilled if I end up with over 12". I know it'll snow like crazy by me for hours, but I've seen this movie on the south shore way too many times. Then there are the nightmare outcomes like 2/13/14 which literally ran the mix line 5 miles north of me for hours. It'll still be a fun storm though and amazing for March. And what falls here will freeze into cement tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nobody's escaping 12-18" If that sleet line gets as far as New Brunswick, CNJ is less likely to see those totals, don't you think? Serious question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Fwiw... the rap at the end of its run, is absolutely annihilating the entire area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Euro is still west Farther than oz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, swamplover56 said: Farther than oz? It maybe is 10 miles east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 That gulf moisture plume tho... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Fwiw... the rap at the end of its run, is absolutely annihilating the entire area Could you elaborate a little? I don't have access to all this stuff, and don't really know how to read them.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I'll be thrilled if I end up with over 12". I know it'll snow like crazy by me for hours, but I've seen this movie on the south shore way too many times. Then there are the nightmare outcomes like 2/13/14 which literally ran the mix line 5 miles north of me for hours. It'll still be a fun storm though and amazing for March. And what falls here will freeze into cement tomorrow night. It seems like they bust our forecasts more than they do for other areas. We changed over hours in advance of other areas on Long Island in Feb 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, swamplover56 said: Farther than oz? Looks about identical to me. 987 over/ just to the East of delmarva at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: If that sleet line gets as far as New Brunswick, CNJ is less likely to see those totals, don't you think? Serious question. It could if the sleet falls during the brunt of the storm but that's the difference between 12 and 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Stella spreads her wings.....you can almost feel her potential in just the early stages today, from this sat shot!!! https://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro Looks like 14-16 for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Euro crushes Hudson valley with close to 30+... yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Looks like 14-20" on Euro at NYC. Any sleet/mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Is the Euro colder ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Manny said: Is the Euro colder ? It's colder than the 12Z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: It's colder than the 12Z UKMET How do the mid level lows track? I don't have access to maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Euro is a March 2001 level bust for most of LI. Kuchera map has barely 6 inches for Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: Euro is a March 2001 level bust for most of LI. Kuchera map has barely 6 inches for Suffolk County. 3/01 wasn't much of a bust for Suffolk County, lots of spots with 16" in 3/01 there. Also, what do you mean by "most of LI" I am in SW LI and the Euro shows me as getting 14-16 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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