brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NYC meteogram for the German Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Never said anything about the coast jackpoti g. But a 50 shift SE this time saves my home town from a full on slop fest. I still think the best totals are 30 miles NW of the park I think the city is fine right where it's at. The only place with significant issues is E LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: I think the city is fine right where it's at. The only place with significant issues is E LI. I love where I'm going to be on the far UWS. I think we do great there. But the best banding with the deform looks to setup up from about you to Orange County (of course) that's where the 24" potential is. My home town will probably go to sleet for a while at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Ukie looks similiar to the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I think the models have converged on a ~ 90% snow, 10% sleet scenario for NYC and points west....maybe some, but not material.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Seems the higher res models are picking up on the mixing at different levels that the lower res globals are not?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The Ukmet looks slightly more west actually ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 According to this, the tracks of the 00z and 12z runs are almost the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Slight westward shift on the 12Z UK from 0z. Everyone is saying east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12z ukie at hr 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 53 minutes ago, JBG said: February 1995 didn't have much cold air in place before the storm. This one does. Another analog is February 1994 II- that storm dumped a bit more than a foot of snow and then went to sleet in the afternoon at JFK, not at Central Park though (Central Park had a similar amount of snow but no sleet.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Everyone is saying east Its west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It ticked slightly west from 0z. It's still a great solution for the whole area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, snywx said: 12z ukie at hr 30 Even though the 'L' just off shore, the central area of the lowest pressure would be about ~75 east of Jersey (as the map in post 2494 indicates) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: Another analog is February 1994 II- that storm dumped a bit more than a foot of snow and then went to sleet in the afternoon at JFK, not at Central Park though (Central Park had a similar amount of snow but no sleet.) That was the Friday storm that followed the Tuesday storm right? (that's how I remember them for some reason.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: WTF A lot of snow to a mix at the end Insane GFS and CMC have more threats after tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I love where I'm going to be on the far UWS. I think we do great there. But the best banding with the deform looks to setup up from about you to Orange County (of course) that's where the 24" potential is. My home town will probably go to sleet for a while at least. I think we end up close to a foot combined snow/mix in southern Nassau, around 12z is the key time to see if the mix line can be held off. I'm pretty sure at least I mix for a while. But it could be more if we get walloped overnight. Central Park should make it to 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NYC meteogram Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Great job by the UKMET for having these really tucked in solutions for days while other models were more offshore. The ukie is a great model wish we could get more output and better maps from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: That was the Friday storm that followed the Tuesday storm right? (that's how I remember them for some reason.) Yep, they were back to back, I actually found the first one to be better because we had lots of thundersnow and insane rates during the day. The prediction for the first one was 4-6 and we ended up with like 8. With the second one it was originally supposed to be south of us and kept coming further and further north, the prediction for it was 12-18 which was spot on, EWR got the jackpot with 17. Total amount of snow on the ground was like 31" at the end lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Terrible analysis here. The Ukmet moved the 850mb low well SE of 0z run. It tracks it off the Jersey shore and south of NYC, keeping NYC cold until the 700mb low moves overhead at about hour 27 and dry slots the area. Ukmet verbatim is 40mm of precip as snow, then the 700mb low comes west and overhead and the dynamics are gone and they switch to snizzle/mix with about 7-10mm of precip left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, Paragon said: Another analog is February 1994 II- that storm dumped a bit more than a foot of snow and then went to sleet in the afternoon at JFK, not at Central Park though (Central Park had a similar amount of snow but no sleet.) Those back-to-back major storms were the only time I can recall the city having a Winter Storm Watch and Warning up at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Holy smokes on the UKMET. 850s get to +1 but at the very end of storm so nyc may mix at that point. This is widespread 2 feet across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Actually when you look at the center of the circles of both UKMET runs, instead of where the unscientific "L" is, both the 0z and 12z runs are centered in almost exactly the same spot (as the model track map indicated), therefore no significant difference between the two in terms of track. edit- I had to magnify it to see a slight bit of difference- the newer run is slightly more NE, but that doesn't mean it's more east, but slightly faster. But again, the differences are not significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 At least 850's look pretty cold on the UKMET for NYC proper. It's very borderline Tuesday afternoon. Also note the 60kph peak sustained 10m winds at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 58 minutes ago, WeatherGod said: Love the little jackpot pink blob. MMU! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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