JBG Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Having just quickly looked at the h5 maps from Jan 87 and Feb 95, I think Feb 95 might be a better analogy. Thoughts? February 1995 didn't have much cold air in place before the storm. This one does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 What is the purpose of the GFS-Para? Because it's a hideous model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: What a tough forecast for coastal areas especially for NYC and western LI/coastal CT. GFS would be 12-18", NAM would be half that. Hopefully the colder models are winning out-GFS finally did correct west to the consensus. Importantly the mid level lows track on a good path for NYC, eastern LI still mixes toward the end. This is flatly false. The NAM would not support 6-9" for NYC. The range is actually quite narrow among all the models, though how they get there varies a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: Which model is the go to nowcast model? HRRR? RAP? It's still a little early for these. Generally I look at the HRRR but I don't know it's skill vs the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: What a tough forecast for coastal areas especially for NYC and western LI/coastal CT. GFS would be 12-18", NAM would be half that. Hopefully the colder models are winning out-GFS finally did correct west to the consensus. Importantly the mid level lows track on a good path for NYC, eastern LI still mixes toward the end. I still like my earlier call of 12-18" for the immediate NYC area. Less for LI and a lot more North and West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 CMC looks better for coast maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, snywx said: The GFS is still alone. Well my original point was that the GFS has begun to correct towards the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Higher res breakdown of the 12z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, F5TornadoF5 said: CMC looks better for coast maybe? Looks slightly east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Blizzard Warning now for Central New Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 We have a banter thread for stuff other than the storm discussion, please use it instead of cluttering this thread up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On to 12z 3/13 QPF range NYC area / Snowfall SREF: 1.50 - 1.75 / 10 - 18" (mixing) NAM: 2.00 - 2.15 / 12 - 18" (mixing) PNAM: 2.15 - 2.30 : 14 - 20" (less mixing) GFS: 1.50 - 1.75 / 12 - 22 " GEFS: RHEM: 2.00 - 2.15 / 10 - 18" (mixing) GGEM: GGEM-ENS: UKMET: ECM: ECM-EPS: JMA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Canadian is an absolute burial for the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Looks slightly east Through hour 18 it's slightly further north into nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: Canadian is an absolute burial for the entire area. Love the little jackpot pink blob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Looks slightly east it is not east - it is slightly west with the surface low the biggest issue with keeping this all snow is the terrible track the h7 low takes...west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Any mets have thoughts about the 12Z RGEM run? EDIT -12Z GEM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Updated Mt Holly WSW text URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1200 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 ...An extreme situation is developing for portions of our area as a MAJOR COASTAL STORM interrupts our usual daily routines on Tuesday... .A very strong winter storm could be life threatening for those who do not pay attention to safety precautions Tuesday morning. Low pressure developing off the Carolina coast this evening will become an intense storm as it moves east of New Jersey midday Tuesday. Swaths of excessive precipitation will develop along and west of the track of the storm. Near blizzard conditions are likely for a few hours in eastern Pennsylvania and portions of northern New Jersey where snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour are expected. NJZ001-007>010-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-140400- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0003.170314T0000Z-170314T2200Z/ Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Mercer-Carbon-Monroe- Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester- Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, Trenton, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown 1200 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...Eastern Pennsylvania and much of northern New Jersey. * HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow and strong winds. * ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches. Very high confidence! * TIMING...Snow begins between 10 PM and midnight from southwest to northeast across the warning area, becoming heavy at times with snowfall rates of Three to four inches per hour for several hours Tuesday morning. Snow will diminish late in the day Tuesday. * IMPACTS...The heavy snow combined with blowing and drifting will make many roads impassable. * WINDS...Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * VISIBILITIES...One half mile or less at times. * TEMPERATURES...From the mid 20s to lower 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: it is not east - it is slightly west with the surface low the biggest issue with keeping this all snow is the terrible track the h7 low takes...west of us. If the low was still intensifying that 700 track would be atrocious. However due to occlusion ( even if we mixes on the GGEM for a time) that's an almost all snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: I guess this may join the 1961 and 1993 storms as the only ones to have front enders of 12+ Feb 1961? That one had a strong front and back end, JFK got 24.1" with like 2.7" LE with sleet and rain for a few hours in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12z cmc reg and kuchera pitty my uncle he live in nj northern nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 OT but GFS is still showing the wave for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 UKMET might have ticked east too. New England forum is mentioning a further SE 850 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The ICON looks nice for just about everyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The last minute SE shifts cannot be denied based on history. This is the opposite version of jan 15 where a SE shift helps us tremendously. These bombs like to follow the Gulf Stream end of story Often models understand how energetic systems are and overadjust to a west and amped track, and then adjust slightly back east later based on the progressiveness of the pattern. That might be happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The last minute SE shifts cannot be denied based on history. This is the opposite version of jan 15 where a SE shift helps us tremendously. These bombs like to follow the Gulf Stream end of story This has gotta be why Mt. Holly hasn't pulled the plug completely on SENJ yet. Their latest discussion is even more bullish. I'm expecting a mainly rain event, but I wouldn't be surprised if a S-SE expansion of the frozen perceip shield shows itself in nowcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The last minute SE shifts cannot be denied based on history. This is the opposite version of jan 15 where a SE shift helps us tremendously. These bombs like to follow the Gulf Stream end of story Hopefully. I haven't heard anything about the ukie yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Ze German is all in. 850s are cold, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: Often models understand how energetic systems are and overadjust to a west and amped track, and then adjust slightly back east later based on the progressiveness of the pattern. That might be happening here. The slight East tick today on some models is just noise. E LI will mix. The city proper is a very close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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