NorthShoreWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 26 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I guess this may join the 1961 and 1993 storms as the only ones to have front enders of 12+ February 1995 was close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Yeah worst of storm from 4am-12pm, but snows linger till 7-10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS is a crippling snowstorm, cold thruout the metro , no mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I have a hard time believing, considering the speed of the system and the quick warming of the mid levels that areas from NYC east see anywhere near 12"-18" of snow. Ratios are going to meh, even when it's pouring snow. Historically, mid levels always warm faster than models let on, especially on western LI. Now from Central Bergen County on west....look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Hopefully the bridge jumping can stop now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 to me this has January 1987 written all over it....races up the coast, huge front end dump is done in about 7-9 hours and ends as drizzle or sleet.I think this will have a longer front end dump than that storm though, at least for the city. Probably 10-12 hours, if there's even a changeover there at all. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Neblizzard said: GFS is a crippling snowstorm, cold thruout the metro , no mixing issues. I'm rooting for you goofus. My username says it all! This is gonna come down the wire, globals kill the whole area, mesoscales bring the low inland. I think that we split the difference. Mesoscales may be amping this storm up a bit too much while the gfs might be a tad to progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Did the GFS just shift the heaviest snowfalls east ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Please stop. This image is valid at 15z.RGEM has had its issues this yr Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS has some serious winds as well. Keep in mind these are forecasted sustained winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Looks like the GFS gets this to a 'warm core' storm...those tend to be very tightly compact (almost like a hurricane), thusly why it is colder/further SE with heaviest precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, David-LI said: Did the GFS just shift the heaviest snowfalls east ? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Also, GFS starts it fairly early...maybe by 10-11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: So I am just trying to figure out how this works; when the GFS shows a bad solution it's dismissed. Now that it shows the optimal solution it's the gospel? The GFS was dismissed initially because it was an outlier. UKMET, RGEM, CMC, etc. all were in close agreement while the GFS was alone. Of course this has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I'm rooting for you goofus. My username says it all! This is gonna come down the wire, globals kill the whole area, mesoscales bring the low inland. I think that we split the difference. Mesoscales may be amping this storm up a bit too much while the gfs might be a tad to progressive. Actually the ukie and Euro had less snow than the rgem I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS is great for us, but it's not a HI-RES model. NAM more favorable now for me in this range. Interested in seeing the 18z NAM and RGEM now. Don't just go with a model that gives you a lot of snow. Be realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Keep in mind these winds are 850mb (Around 5000 feet above the surface) but some of these will mix down in stronger convection. I'm curios if any MUCAPE is going to make it into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS has the perfect track, perfect amount of snow. GFS just painted the perfect storm for NYC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 15-20 inches on the 12z GFS for the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: trying to figure that out too...why are posters using the GFS now...its the coldest and east most outlier still...seems like its still correcting...and its slower with the onset of precip...the other models seem to have early start and end times...just asking for consistency here because yesterday when I brought up the GFS I was told to discount it The gfs was dismissed yesterday because it was so far away from other guidance. This gfs run is at least on par with what most guidance is showing currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The GFS was dismissed initially because it was an outlier. UKMET, RGEM, CMC, etc. all were in close agreement while the GFS was alone. Of course this has changed. The GFS is in line with the eps, the euro op (though a tick east) and the Ukmet (again a tick east). The rgem this year has had its issues. The cmc is in line with the gfs, etc, but it's the cmc. The nam took a step east this morning. If the Ukmet and euro back the gfs, you take it. I don't love the gfs. I rarely use it, in this type of scenario . But to see the nam trend East and the gfs to follow suit to fall in line with the euro and eps.. I give it some weight. Also it's normally the warmest and now it's the coldest, that's a huge red flag for warmer solutions imho Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, RutgersWx92 said: I think this will have a longer front end dump than that storm though, at least for the city. Probably 10-12 hours, if there's even a changeover there at all. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Having just quickly looked at the h5 maps from Jan 87 and Feb 95, I think Feb 95 might be a better analogy. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS showing 15+ no mix and RGEM 12-15" with mix for NYC. TBH the GFS is obviously better for all snow but the the RGEM still isn't bad for NYC. Blizzard conditions no matter the solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Guys, if someone posts something absurd or weenies out don't engage with them, it makes it easier for the mods to deal with the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 00z ARW. Only runs twice a day. 12z won't be out for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 What a tough forecast for coastal areas especially for NYC and western LI/coastal CT. GFS would be 12-18", NAM would be half that. Hopefully the colder models are winning out-GFS finally did correct west to the consensus. Importantly the mid level lows track on a good path for NYC, eastern LI still mixes toward the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Which model is the go to nowcast model? HRRR? RAP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Does anyone have the RPM model or a link the model? Cannot seem to find it anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: The GFS was dismissed initially because it was an outlier. UKMET, RGEM, CMC, etc. all were in close agreement while the GFS was alone. Of course this has changed. The GFS is still alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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