bdgwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 HRRRX looks pretty good for the city...12"+ with higher amounts inland of 18"+. Also, admittedly I don't know the nuances of forecasting coastal storms, but what's wrong with the Kuchera method. It doesn't seem to be too far off from the Cobb (without compaction) and SREF methods. Which methods are considered best for your neck of the woods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Closer look at the RGEM. 700MB ; 850MB and 925MB look to stay below 0Z until around 15Z. At that point 1.5 QPF has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Breathe How much of this is counting snow as sleet though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Breathe What model is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 So let me get this straight? NYC proper receives 15 inches of snow before any sleet/mix? (RGEM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, mikem81 said: Closer look at the RGEM. 700MB ; 850MB and 925MB look to stay below 0Z until around 15Z. At that point 1.5 QPF has fallen. The one thing about the rgem is it's much faster this run. By 12z a foot has fallen for most of the area. It starts by around 10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Lol, if it makes anyone feel better, I'll give you my pbp from the south fork. I am hoping for 6" out here. Enjoy what you get! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Breathe If that verifies, that would rank among New York City's five biggest March snowfalls on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Zelocita Weather said: What model is that? That's the 12z RGEM. It shows a lot more snow than I originally thought. Only about a 2-3 hour period where nyc mixes. My apologies for jumping the gun, I wasn't being specific in my post. Northern NJ gets buried on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said: What model is that? The RGEM. It looks like it has a hellacious front end overnight before sleet taints things by around daybreak for Long Island and maybe 7-8am NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherfreeeeak said: How much of this is counting snow as sleet though It's all snow for at least 9 hours and then switches to some sleet by the time it ends. 1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said: What model is that? Rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This continues to look like 1987 shifted 50-75 miles east Very good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, donsutherland1 said: If that verifies, that would rank among New York City's five biggest March snowfalls on record. Even 6-12 will be nice for March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The RGEM is a fantastic run for the five boroughs. Even if it doesn't absolutely maximize snowfall totals for NYC - which was true in 1996 as well, where the five boros briefly went to sleet and highest snowfall totals were ~10-30 miles west - it puts NYC right in the path of the highest rates and highest winds. 15" high impact inches are a hell of a lot more fun than 18" of fluff. Each run gets me more and more optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM is about 14-15 at LGA and 11 at JFK before changeover.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: Lol, if it makes anyone feel better, I'll give you my pbp from the south fork. I am hoping for 6" out here. Enjoy what you get! Hoping for 2-3 down in SENJ. Enjoy your storm fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Are we looking now at a progressive storm with a duration of 12 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 15 minutes ago, RutgersWx92 said: No it doesn't, the 1993 storm tracked inland over northeastern NJ. This won't go as far west as that did. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk to me this has January 1987 written all over it....races up the coast, huge front end dump is done in about 7-9 hours and ends as drizzle or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, RUMG11 said: Hoping for 2-3 down in SENJ. Enjoy your storm fellas. I think you're all rain down that way, and lots of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, sferic said: Are we looking now at a progressive storm with a duration of 12 hours? It sounds a lot like the RGEM ends this thing around 10 a.m. Is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: RGEM is about 14-15 at LGA and 11 at JFK before changeover.... And then sleet would likely add a couple or few inches. Sleet is 3:1 liquid ratio, so 1" additional liquid=3" sleet. NOT looking forward to having to shovel this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This continues to look like 1987 shifted 50-75 miles east I agree. I remember that storm well. I was in 8th grade, staring out the window in school waiting fro the snow to begin. It probably started snowing (in Forest Hills, Queens, NY) at 930ish and by the time I got home from school it was all over. 11" or so in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS shifted slightly east and has a huge hit for the area Snowmaps coming soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, sferic said: Are we looking now at a progressive storm with a duration of 12 hours? 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: to me this has January 1987 written all over it....races up the coast, huge front end dump is done in about 7-9 hours and ends as drizzle or sleet. While the height of the storm will last around 12 hours. From about 3AM-3PM, lighter stuff should linger into the early evening. And we could get some lighter snows in by midnight. Overall it's roughly a 12-16 hour event. It's really hard to get a longer duration storm while the storm is still bombing out. The H5 low doesn't close off until the storm is up into New England, and by that time the SLP begins to weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I think you're all rain down that way, and lots of it. My thoughts as well. Although Mt. Holly remaining bullish for the ACY area has kept me intrigued. I'm more concerned about these winds, the flooding and the beach erosion which we can already ill-afford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: It sounds a lot like the RGEM ends this thing around 10 a.m. Is that correct? 10 AM??? rgem says snow ends around 8pm ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: It sounds a lot like the RGEM ends this thing around 10 a.m. Is that correct? Please stop. This image is valid at 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS looks awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, RUMG11 said: My thoughts as well. Although Mt. Holly remaining bullish for the ACY area has kept me intrigued. I'm more concerned about these winds, the flooding and the beach erosion which we can already ill-afford. Unfortunately with the storm nearly onshore until after passing your latitude it's going to be hard for you to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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