snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: absolute thing of beauty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: It is good, but IMO the more important question is where the 700 and 850 lows track. If those lurch east, the mix line lurches east with them. So far the NAM seems to be bringing them east a decent bit. 850 low crosses over KFOK roughly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Wow, hour 27 that pink is not mix over NJ, it is absolutely incredible snow rates (almost off the chart)...guessing but prob 3-5"/hr. generated by the bombing low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: LOL, the NAM is maybe, and I mean maybe 20 miles further East with the SLP track. Better than twenty miles west. Those 20 miles could be all the difference between 15 inches with no mixing and 8 followed by some slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: 850 low crosses over KFOK roughly And that's a very good thing so long as it crosses on the most eastern tip of Long Island then I think most of us should be sitting very pretty I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Look at 700mb Temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, nyblizz44 said: Better than twenty miles west. Those 20 miles could be all the difference between 15 inches with no mixing and 8 followed by some slop 850's are above freezing for about 6 hours during the early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said: Wow, hour 27 that pink is not mix over NJ, it is absolutely incredible snow rates (almost off the chart)...guessing but prob 3-5"/hr. generated by the bombing low No I think it's a warm layer even though south of that is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, nyblizz44 said: And that's a very good thing so long as it crosses on the most eastern tip of Long Island then I think most of us should be sitting very pretty I would think Where was 850 low crossing with the 00z and 6z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Mitchel Volk said: Look at 700mb Temps Close for the city, but above freezing for most of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: No I think it's a warm layer even though south of that is snow Looks like it's 850s going above 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Mitchel Volk said: Look at 700mb Temps Good point, I don't have access to soundings. There could easily be a warm layer above 850mb that would cause sleet. But hopefully dynamics and the 850 low tracking SE of a location would limit sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Qpf looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: No I think it's a warm layer even though south of that is snow Yes you are correct. This is a horrible run for I-95 and SE. Lots of rain and mixing. Worst case scenario for that area; I was afraid of this last minute trend. Your gonna have some bridge jumpers if the 12z globals agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Hi Res Nams are colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 All in all this NAM was a positive step for the city. Not all the way there yet but hopefully we can say the west trend stopped. Still time for a 40 mile or so move east which in the city makes maybe a 6-10" difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The warm layer for LGA is about 14-16Z at LGA 820-850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NAM is ~ 2.0-2.25" of QPF region wide, honestly even if we lose 0.5" to sleet, still 15"-20" storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 First of all, calm the hell down. It's one model run. Secondly, Even if the coast mixes, it's going to be after several hours of heavy snow, so don't sweat a little mixing at the end. Not every coastal storm jackpots the coast. The fact that we're even talking big snow at the coast in mid March is remarkable. 4k NAM showing some serious surface winds in the blizzard warned areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Yes you are correct. This is a horrible run for I-95 and SE. Lots of rain and mixing. Worst case scenario for that area; I was afraid of this last minute trend. Your gonna have some bridge jumpers if the 12z globals agree. I doubt rain with the low further East Though the low is west on the 4km nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The 12z NAM represented an improvement over the 6z run, especially at 700 mb and 850 mb. The end result was an increase in forecast snowfall amounts in the areas that had seen substantial reductions between the 0z and 6z runs. This development increases my confidence that the 6z run may have been an outlier and that the more consistent 3 km parallel NAM and RGEM may be providing better insight into what to expect from the storm. That the 12z NAM also showed the heaviest snows in the interior also increases my confidence as that area is quite similar to that shown on the 6z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 There is no way it rains outside of central or eastern LI. The surface wind component west of there is too northerly. Sleet maybe but no rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There is no way it rains outside of central or eastern LI. The surface wind component west of there is too northerly. Sleet maybe but no rain The NAM isn't showing much rain outside of Suffolk County but it does have at least 3-6 hours of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Higher res NAMS at 12z seem to take an alternate route with the low, hugging the coast even more. Starting from the 6z runs, that is what it has been doing with the NAM models. 00z stayed offshore just enough. The 4km/3km NAMS are pretty ugly for most of us with tons of mixing. Be careful with the snow maps..it is a LOT of sleet, not accumulating snow for much of itSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, WintersGrasp said: Higher res NAMS at 12z seem to take an alternate route with the low, hugging the coast even more. Starting from the 6z runs, that is what it has been doing with the NAM models. 00z stayed offshore just enough. The 4km/3km NAMS are pretty ugly for most of us with tons of mixing Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro I think the 3KM is snowier for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Nam Para is colder and further east Great hit for everyone west of central LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Through 30 hours on the 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 could be some issues with Sleet but Wow at the 4K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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