nyblizz44 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: Beautiful, you can see where the launching pad is off the SE coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 What I find interesting is theres no mention of mixing for anyone in nj even as far south as Monmouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: What I find interesting is theres no mention of mixing for anyone in nj even as far south as Monmouth Exactly what I've been thinking for the last 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: What I find interesting is theres no mention of mixing for anyone in nj even as far south as Monmouth I honestly think the eastern trend within the last 24 hours that we've seen time and time again the last few years in being considered by Mt.Holly. Only reason I can think of. Otherwise I agree. Im in Central Middlesex and still concerned with mixing, nevermind coastal NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, ScottB said: I honestly think the eastern trend within the last 24 hours that we've seen time and time again the last few years in being considered by Mt.Holly. Only reason I can think of. They also have winds out of the north which would seem to be part of it. Nassau on west has no mention of mixing. Edit: I even looked down past toms river right on the beach and no mentions of mixing. They do have temps in the mid 30s and much lower snow totals though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, ScottB said: I honestly think the eastern trend within the last 24 hours that we've seen time and time again the last few years in being considered by Mt.Holly. Only reason I can think of. Otherwise I agree. Im in Central Middlesex and still concerned with mixing, nevermind coastal NJ. The rgem was in the exact same position the past 2 runs, so we'll see if it ticks East or at least hopefully doesn't come any further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: The rgem was in the exact same position the past 2 runs, so we'll see if it ticks East or at least hopefully doesn't come any further west. Does the models read sleet as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Does the models read sleet as snow?No, only some of those snow mapsSent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: No, only some of those snow maps Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk So what are your thoughts? There was some concern early this morning about westward trends and mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Does the models read sleet as snow? The RGEM maps on Meteocentre do not read sleet as snow. One can find separate maps for snow, ice pellets, freezing rain, and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The 06Z high res RGEM still keeps NYC proper all snow although the line hovers to the south for ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I can't believe how bullish Mt. Holly went for my area with the Blizzard warning and 18-24" snow forecast given how borderline things seem. They know a lot more than we do though and wouldn't go that extreme unless they felt comfortable enough to do so. I guess we'll just have to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 33 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: So what are your thoughts? There was some concern early this morning about westward trends and mixing That's still something to watch. It's possible that the ECMWF/NAM may be about as bad as it gets and things could improve on later maps. That the 6z RGEM was little changed from the 0z run may hint that the guidance is nearing its farthest west extent. The 12z guidance will be important, especially to see if some of the westernmost guidance e.g., the NAM tick back east. That there was a slightly higher number of EPS individual members to the east of the mean may also suggest that there is a limit to how far west the developing storm will track. Unlike with the idea of an expansive precipitation field, which was lacking for a time on some of the models, there is greater uncertainty involved with the seeming westward trend. A lot will depend on the timing, degree, and location of the phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: So what are your thoughts? There was some concern early this morning about westward trends and mixing Wish I knew lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I can't believe how bullish Mt. Holly went for my area with the Blizzard warning and 18-24" snow forecast given how borderline things seem. They know a lot more than we do though and wouldn't go that extreme unless they felt comfortable enough to do so. I guess we'll just have to see what happens. You are in east Brunswick and under B.W for 18-24?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 This seems as good a time as any to remind everyone that there is no such thing as a west "trend". In fact, there is no such thing as "trends" in models at all. The only statistically significant information to predict the location of a low on a future run of a model is the location of the low on previous runs of a model, the location of the low in other models (subject to known biases, models will tend to converge on a solution), and deviation from observed conditions with modelled conditions. "Trend", aka the direction of changes in a model (or collection of models) over the past several runs, contains no predictive information.*. This was pretty thoroughly tested and confirmed over the past decade or so, especially vis-a-vis tropical cyclone forecasting, where it was a particularly persistent and pernicious myth. It's one of the big reasons - one of the key biases that hinder human forecasting - that explain why blended means are better forecasters than humans. If you see someone referring to "trend" with any frequency in their posts, you should assume they don't know what they're talking about. It's a classic example of bad, unrigorous meteorology. *with the possible, limited exception of observing the direction of changes as critical new observational information gets incorporated into the initial conditions of a set of models over time. Not applicable here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Time to ride the gem-lam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: You are in east Brunswick and under B.W for 18-24?? Yes Middlesex county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The NAM and RGEM are only about 10-20 miles difference as to has far west the mixing line gets with the closest pass of the storm at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: This seems as good a time as any to remind everyone that there is no such thing as a west "trend". In fact, there is no such thing as "trends" in models at all. The only statistically significant information to predict the location of a low on a future run of a model is the location of the low on previous runs of a model, the location of the low in other models (subject to known biases, models will tend to converge on a solution), and deviation from observed conditions with modelled conditions. "Trend", aka the direction of changes in a model (or collection of models) over the past several runs, contains no predictive information.*. This was pretty thoroughly tested and confirmed over the past decade or so, especially vis-a-vis tropical cyclone forecasting, where it was a particularly persistent and pernicious myth. It's one of the big reasons - one of the key biases that hinder human forecasting - that explain why blended means are better forecasters than humans. If you see someone referring to "trend" with any frequency in their posts, you should assume they don't know what they're talking about. It's a classic example of bad, unrigorous meteorology. Well I don't know much about all this stuff but I love coming here in the winter months, and thank you for that explanation. This is actually true in a lot of other fields as well. Ask any political scientist or pollster about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Lol mixing panic is taking over in the Philly thread as well. I posted this in the Mid-Atlantic thread, but I'll post it here, too (Burlington's WSSI map) And on a banter-y note to all in this sub-forum: please be safe and take care. Looks like the southern california drought maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 34 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: What I find interesting is theres no mention of mixing for anyone in nj even as far south as Monmouth Some Private METS are mentioning it this morning including JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, coastalplainsnowman said: Looks like the southern california drought maps. Not doing anyone any favors with this experimental product. Not a ton of confidence with it yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yes Middlesex county I'm over in the Howell/Freehold area in Western Monmouth with a blizzard warning as well (12-16" is the forecast from NWS). I am sweating this mix line with you, although perhaps a little more than you! 30 mile shift in either direction will mean a world of difference. Let's hope it goes about 30 miles east of the general consensus of last night's 00z and 06z runs. That would allow us to be greedy and join the "jackpot" zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Something interesting is that the cold over the past few days ended up being colder than forecast particularly the high temperatures. I wonder if today follows that trend and that could be important because if the cold is more apparent then it may keep shoving the coastal front further south and not let it get too far north. That and the intense dynamics may be enough to keep us from tainting despite such a close storm track. I imagine something happened with March 1993 where despite the low literally going across land most places still picked up at least a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Lol mixing panic is taking over in the Philly thread as well. I posted this in the Mid-Atlantic thread, but I'll post it here, too (Burlington's WSSI map) And on a banter-y note to all in this sub-forum: please be safe and take care. Look at the date of the timestamp.. Its 2 days old! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Well I don't know much about all this stuff but I love coming here in the winter months, and thank you for that explanation. This is actually true in a lot of other fields as well. Ask any political scientist or pollster about it. I believe the reason "trend" is used, because it simplifies the direction the guidance has moved in recent runs. It isn't highly predictive, though e.g., one can't assume that the direction will be sustained. My guess is that based on the synoptic pattern and the guidance, the storm will track somewhere between an area bounded 25 miles to the west of the 0z ECMWF or 50 miles east of it (probably not far from the latest RGEM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Here's my final call. 12-18" in NYC proper and immediate surrounding areas. Remember that strong winds, possible mixing and approaching dry slot will limit totals somewhat. Still a historic storm for the coast in March. 10-14" for Eastern Nassau and Western Suffolk County. 8-12" for the rest of Long Island with possibly 10-14" in the usual North shore spots. I like a general 12-18" for most of Central NJ, north of 195 till about Rt. 78. North of 78 and West of the GSP in NJ I like a general 18-24" with a few localized 24-30" amounts in the elevated areas of NW NJ and then up into Orange County. Otherwise North of 84 I like a general 18-24". For Northeast PA I like 12-18" with a few isolated areas >18" possible in the higher terrain. For the area from about Philly to Trenton I like 8-12" with isolated areas of 12-18" North of Philly in the hill country. Overall a historic storm for the time of year. Very strong winds will cause coastal flooding, possible power outages and white out conditions for a period tomorrow morning into early afternoon. Comes in as a wall of snow around 2-3AM. Height of the storm is from about 6AM to 2PM. Should be all gone by about 6-7PM except for a few lingering snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I don't think I've ever seen 6-7" an hr rates in my life.. Most of the guidance the past 24 hrs has been showing this for the HV. Gonna be wild! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, snywx said: I don't think I've ever seen 6-7" an hr rates in my life.. Most of the guidance the past 24 hrs has been showing this for the HV. Gonna be wild! Can you post like 5 hours earlier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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