Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: January 87 however was more developed earlier further south down the coast, so there was more room for heavy snow in advance of the changeover it was snowing heavily already here with the low off N NC. In this case despite the track being further east almost for sure compared to 1987 the margin for error is a bit less since the front end I don't think is as good if we get into a changeover scenario Yes, and it also being later in the season. I think the warmer than normal winter will play a role here too with this marginal late season event (the story would be different if this was, say, March 2015.) It will also limit back end snow as the pattern this whole season has been for fast moving systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, Paragon said: Yes, and it also being later in the season. I think the warmer than normal winter will play a role here too with this marginal late season event (the story would be different if this was, say, March 2015.) It will also limit back end snow as the pattern this whole season has been for fast moving systems. Back end snows here really only occur with a closed off vertically stacked system that tracks with a NE trajectory from off ACY to New England, any sort of component in track that takes it straight northward into New England or the HV results in downslope flow and no change back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Obviously a wide range of possible outcomes for NYC, LI and CT, more definite snow for n NJ and HV. But I think the storm is on a good track for heavy snow anywhere west of ISP to PVD. It will try to push back warm air to the west but the steady advance of the ULL and the strong dynamics will keep most of the precip snow, so I am going for 15-20 inches in NYC and western LI, 17-24 in HV and parts of n NJ. I think there is some potential for this to deepen even more than models currently depict and to reach 965 mbs before landfall in se MA. The fastest development will take place from Hatteras to 39N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Good lord. I can't wait for admins to clean up all this banter. Guys, it's one model run. Global models aren't even much use anymore. Take a breather until the seasoned guys wake up and chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The 00Z GEM LAM never changes NYC over at all, the sleet line stalls or even inches back south from 10-13Z from Sandy Hook to JFK. Long Island does mix for central and ERN areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Via Upton as of 3:50 am. Totals bumped up for most of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Looks like 6z nam will be west too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfoxyny Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 EPS mean anyone?, perhaps I missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Blizzard warnings now up for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 25 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Obviously a wide range of possible outcomes for NYC, LI and CT, more definite snow for n NJ and HV. But I think the storm is on a good track for heavy snow anywhere west of ISP to PVD. It will try to push back warm air to the west but the steady advance of the ULL and the strong dynamics will keep most of the precip snow, so I am going for 15-20 inches in NYC and western LI, 17-24 in HV and parts of n NJ. I think there is some potential for this to deepen even more than models currently depict and to reach 965 mbs before landfall in se MA. The fastest development will take place from Hatteras to 39N. Technically, that is what I expect also, west of ISP is where to expect mostly/all snow. More of a concern west of there is a dry slot and a fast moving system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Upton hoisted a Blizzard warning. That's a good sign, no? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, seanick said: Blizzard warnings now up for the area. Matches thoughts to a tee about eastern LI, as long as this holds we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The 00Z GEM LAM never changes NYC over at all, the sleet line stalls or even inches back south from 10-13Z from Sandy Hook to JFK. Long Island does mix for central and ERN areas. So JFK mixes for a very brief time? Also, what is "LAM" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: Matches thoughts to a tee about eastern LI, as long as this holds we're good. Agreed. Too many guys ready to jump off the GWB. Let the dynamics play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 49 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Back end snows here really only occur with a closed off vertically stacked system that tracks with a NE trajectory from off ACY to New England, any sort of component in track that takes it straight northward into New England or the HV results in downslope flow and no change back. 3/01 was good for back end snows, most of us got warning criteria from back end snows, and that was the entire storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: So JFK mixes for a very brief time? Also, what is "LAM" It's some high res version of the RGEM. JFK maybe mixes on it but when precip is starting to more or less lighten up and end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Actually 850's doesn't look too bad anyone west of say sandy hook unless I"m blind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Mt.Holly keeps the Winter Storm Warning for my area but increased accumulations to 18-24" wow. Edit: Just upgraded to a Blizzard Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Take it fwiw but both high res versions of the NAM were further east than the regular. That 0z Euro though, ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 22 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Mt.Holly keeps the Winter Storm Warning for my area but increased accumulations to 18-24" wow. Edit: Just upgraded to a Blizzard Warning So what do you think? Went to bed with a bunch of people here honking historical snowstorm for the city, wake up to people jumping of bridges....this is really tiresome and makes me wonder if it is productive to even bother to look until the storm is here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 And maps are up - a little surprised they're this bullish having seen the Euro, as they only seem to be heavily factoring in sleet/rain for coastal Ocean and southward and for eastern LI, but they're the experts - and there are all the other models east of the Euro showing 12-20" or more nearly everywhere in this forum, so I guess they're going with that. Let's hope it verifies and we aren't on a west trend... Quote Options Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The 06Z RGEM looks similar to 00z...it MAY have ticked east a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The 06Z RGEM looks similar to 00z...it MAY have ticked east a bit I'm really getting confused here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 EPS are east of EURO OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6z GFS absolute crush job... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I dont have time to clean this up right now. Take the emotional stuff to banter, or im gonna have to start suspending people, this thread is unreadable. No absolutes, no "all rain, oh well", etc. Enough is enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said: 6z GFS absolute crush job... Yeh it's east and much colder . 981 east of NJ heading for the twin forks. NYC crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, BxEngine said: I dont have time to clean this up right now. Take the emotional stuff to banter, or im gonna have to start suspending people, this thread is unreadable. No absolutes, no "all rain, oh well", etc. Enough is enough. Thank god you've awaken. Phew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6z RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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