USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 More than just Long Island my friend. This storm was typical of the early 90s and being very experienced with those storms, more than just Long Island changed over. And the models didn't pick up on it until it was nowcasting time either.It's very possible. It all depends on the phase. If this thing is as cranked up as ita showing and the PNA continues to rise so far out west, then yes. But let's see. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Sure it can stop. I doubt it goes way east, but the models can do a correction for going too far west. Everyone should relax and just get a good sleep. God...I feel like so much is riding on this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Shhh it's fun watching the freakoutsfreak outs Not cool dude. Not cool. We all want historic snowfall. Anyway there may be a slight east adjustment by morning. That always happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, nzucker said: This run was fine for NYC. 15"=. NYC is NOT going to mix with a low going east of LI. Common sense guys. Even if it does so what- it still gets the area to 40" on the season. The low may not go east of LI though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, Paragon said: lol you might not want the side effects of doing dangerous things while sleepwalking reason why my gf locks me in there, so i can't get out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: Even if it does so what- it still gets the area to 40" on the season. The low may not go east of LI though. It will though. All the computer models have the LP going east of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 If it screws us over snow-wise then so be it but I'm really interested to see how this beast evolves, this is definitely not your run of the mill storm. It's one of the most powerful March systems to develop in a long time and we will be impacted one way or the other. Again the coastal impacts of a tucked in storm like this will be very bad so for their sake I do hope it corrects a bit further east tomorrow. There's a lot more at stake than just who gets the heaviest snows. Any more correction west will only cause more coastal devastation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: It will though. All the computer models have the LP going east of LI. question, with respect to track, does it matter more if it passes east of your area, or where it is located when south of your area? Like let's say it was located right near ACY and then tracked to MTP......is that worse than if it was located due south of MTP and came due north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Euro is 16-18" for Manhattan and the Bronx at 10:1 ratios…that's still a huge storm. I'd lock it in in a heartbeat. I also think this may tick east a little bit, and I also think dynamic cooling will be a bigger factor the farther west this comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, nzucker said: Euro is 16-18" for Manhattan and the Bronx at 10:1 ratios…that's still a huge storm. I'd lock it in in a heartbeat. I also think this may tick east a little bit, and I also think dynamic cooling will be a bigger factor the farther west this comes. I'm not 100% sure it's that much. I think it's counting sleet in those totals but I haven't gotten all data yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If it screws us over snow-wise then so be it but I'm really interested to see how this beast evolves, this is definitely not your run of the mill storm. It's one of the most powerful March systems to develop in a long time and we will be impacted one way or the other. Again the coastal impacts of a tucked in storm like this will be very bad so for their sake I do hope it corrects a bit further east tomorrow. There's a lot more at stake than just who gets the heaviest snows. Any more correction west will only cause more coastal devastation. I do think we all get double digit snowfall totals because of dynamics alone, it just depends on how much of it gets washed away later if it changes over. I could see a scenario where we get 10" and we have 6" left over by the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Euro is 16-18" for Manhattan and the Bronx at 10:1 ratios…that's still a huge storm. I'd lock it in in a heartbeat. I also think this may tick east a little bit, and I also think dynamic cooling will be a bigger factor the farther west this comes.I still firmly believe this corrects 50-75 miles east. But, we'll see. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Euro snow map is 16-18" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 27 minutes ago, sferic said: Is there wiggle room to correct east by the 12z run or is this etched in stone ? Definitely wiggle room! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, Paragon said: question, with respect to track, does it matter more if it passes east of your area, or where it is located when south of your area? Like let's say it was located right near ACY and then tracked to MTP......is that worse than if it was located due south of MTP and came due north? It would be worse to have the LP move from ACY to MTP because the warmer mid levels will push inland slightly. With a track south of MTP to MTP. The warmer mid levels with stay offshore for the City and inland areas. LI would get it bad on both scenarios though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: It would be worse to have the LP move from ACY to MTP because the warmer mid levels will push inland slightly. With a track south of MTP to MTP. The warmer mid levels with stay offshore for the City and inland areas. LI would get it bad on both scenarios though. In the latter scenario only the eastern part of Long Island would have a problem though- I keep thinking back to the Millenium storm and a few others where the storm came ashore on eastern LI but there was no changeover or mixing in Nassau County, not even on the south shore of Nassau County. Different world once east of Islip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: In the latter scenario only the eastern part of Long Island would have a problem though- I keep thinking back to the Millenium storm and a few others where the storm came ashore on eastern LI but there was no changeover or mixing in Nassau County, not even on the south shore of Nassau County. Different world once east of Islip. Oh. Well I learned something new there. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 39 minutes ago, nzucker said: This run was fine for NYC. 15"=. NYC is NOT going to mix with a low going east of LI. Common sense guys. I almost puked reading all that crap until I saw this. Thanks. Can anyone answer me what happened with the Euro during jan 15? That's right it wound up 50 miles east which changed absolutely everything for the city west. The same thing is entirely possible if not likely here use clima freaking tology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Oh. Well I learned something new there. Thanks. It's an old storm, I'm not sure how much it applies to this scenario, but storms that are more wrapped up draw cold air into the storm, but if you're east of the center you'll have issues. I think this one might mix because of the NW trend this season and secondly, because it's March and we don't really have good experiences with March storms here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said: Those sort of gradients simply don't occur in the metro. It'll either end up 50 miles east or 50 miles west of that if you ask me. Those are much more common gradients than 16 in NYC and 3 at JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I almost puked reading all that crap until I saw this. Thanks. Can anyone answer me what happened with the Euro during jan 15? That's right it wound up 50 miles east which changed absolutely everything for the city west. The same thing is entirely possible if not likely here use clima freaking tology yeah but unfortunately there's a big difference between January and March my friend. I'm not emotionally invested in this since I had already considered it a decent season before this ever appeared on the charts, also I feel like we got our "big one" last year. Can't top that regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Those sort of gradients simply don't occur in the metro. It'll either end up 50 miles east or 50 miles west of that if you ask me. Those are much more common gradients than 16 in NYC and 3 at JFK Might be one of those models that thinks Long Island is the Ocean lol. I've seen a 50% gradient but not an 80% one. I could see 20 EWR.....16 NYC.... 10 JFK...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Those sort of gradients simply don't occur in the metro. It'll either end up 50 miles east or 50 miles west of that if you ask me. Those are much more common gradients than 16 in NYC and 3 at JFK How do you compare the projected track of this with the track of the Millenium Storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: How do you compare the projected track of this with the track of the Millenium Storm? If you blend the RGEM UKMET and Euro it's really different. Further west initially but passes further east once crossing long island or east of there. Much more warmth is coming into the mid levels this time near NYC than with that event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If you blend the RGEM UKMET and Euro it's really different. Further west initially but passes further east once crossing long island or east of there. Much more warmth is coming into the mid levels this time near NYC than with that event Which is weird because that was late December and you'd think it would be warmer then (at least the Ocean would be warmer.) But this is exactly what I was looking for- the trajectory. It seems like it doesn't matter as much where it passes at your latitude, it matters more where it is located when south of you- and it being further west initially is what matters. That storm was originally progged to mix or changeover here but it never happened. Also, do you see Boston as being warmer than NYC with this event? I saw some forecasts of temps in the upper 30s there. It could be that PHL gets more snow than NYC and NYC gets more snow than BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: Which is weird because that was late December and you'd think it would be warmer then (at least the Ocean would be warmer.) But this is exactly what I was looking for- the trajectory. It seems like it doesn't matter as much where it passes at your latitude, it matters more where it is located when south of you- and it being further west initially is what matters. That storm was originally progged to mix or changeover here but it never happened. Also, do you see Boston as being warmer than NYC with this event? I saw some forecasts of temps in the upper 30s there. If they have an 080-090 wind Logan will be RASN for a long period. They did that in a storm last month and got virtually nil when some forecasts had 8-12. 10 miles inland is a different deal though. Bottom line right now, and this may be more pattern recognition and hunch than meteorology. If the RGEM/Euro are correct on mid level and BL warming with sleet, then NYC is not seeing anywhere close to the snow amounts both models show. It will be much less than that IF those models are accurate on those mid-level and BL temps. They both more or less show sleet by 12Z, the snow starts say 06-07Z and won't be that heavy til 10-11Z so the ceiling IMO in that verbatim scenario is maybe 5-7 inches. You really wont go back over to heavy snow in this setup since its not a vertically stacked or slow moving system. If you go over, you may go back to snow but it'll likely be brief and then the event is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If they have an 080-090 wind Logan will be RASN for a long period. They did that in a storm last month and got virtually nil when some forecasts had 8-12. 10 miles inland is a different deal though. Bottom line right now, and this may be more pattern recognition and hunch than meteorology. If the RGEM/Euro are correct on mid level and BL warming with sleet, then NYC is not seeing anywhere close to the snow amounts both models show. It will be much less than that IF those models are accurate on those mid-level and BL temps. They both more or less show sleet by 12Z, the snow starts say 06-07Z and won't be that heavy til 10-11Z so the ceiling IMO in that verbatim scenario is maybe 5-7 inches. You really wont go back over to heavy snow in this setup since its not a vertically stacked or slow moving system. If you go over, you may go back to snow but it'll likely be brief and then the event is over. So I was right with my suspicions based on past systems I've seen like this back in the 80s and 90s, when the snow drought was in full force and we saw an uncommonly large number of systems like this? I think past experience with such storms is more important than merely reading off model output. I believe you mentioned January 1987. Back then the models busted high with snowfall output too. I think the warmer than normal winter will play a role here too with this marginal late season event (the story would be different if this was, say, March 2015.) It will also limit back end snow as the pattern this whole season has been for fast moving systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: So I was right with my suspicions based on past systems I've seen like this back in the 80s and 90s, when the snow drought was in full force and we saw an uncommonly large amount of systems like this? I think past experience with such storms is more important than merely reading off model output. I believe you mentioned January 1987 January 87 however was more developed earlier further south down the coast, so there was more room for heavy snow in advance of the changeover it was snowing heavily already here with the low off N NC. In this case despite the track being further east almost for sure compared to 1987 the margin for error is a bit less since the front end I don't think is as good if we get into a changeover scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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