JerseyWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Midwest gets it all the time People don't understand this. It's the wind aspect. Yes and visibility also matters too though. You need visibility to 1/4 mile or less for 3 hours or longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, USCG RS said: h85 Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Damn it I'm too warm from the looks of it. I wish it nudged like 10 miles to the east lol. In all seriousness maybe it's a paste bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, USCG RS said: I am very aware of that. What I am saying is this does not quite look set in stone yet. I still. Believe we correct East a bit, but before issuing a Blizzard Warning, they may wait one cycle with the temp profiles and how tucked in these models are beginning to show. That being said, the Euro has the better resolution. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk They are prob waiting on the Euro to decide what they are gonna do with snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Yes and visibility also matters too though. You need visibility to 1/4 mile or less for 3 hours or longer. And sustained winds or frequent gusts to 35mph during this three hr period EDIT : Didn't see the wind had been talked about earlier. Apologies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, USCG RS said: h85 Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Ouch.. Surface temps look warm as well. I figured the west trend was real but didn't expect it to drive right through new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, USCG RS said: And sustained winds or frequent gusts to 35mph during this three hr period EDIT : Didn't see the wind had been talked about earlier. Apologies the biggest story with this system could be the wind, and absolutely nobody's talking about it. once again... 60 to 80 knot winds at 925mb....at 42 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Oh I'm here.. patiently waiting for euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Ukie is basically a cold rainstorm if it's in the mid 30s during the entire event, what a massive bust that would be. Better hope the Euro looks more like the GGEM than the Ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Oh I'm here.. patiently waiting for euro AWESOME!!!...We all thank you!!!....Just initialized... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 the LL jet will be hovering there when heavy snows are occurring just overhead at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I've seen so many late developing Miller b over the last 7 years that we were due a true hugger. NYC maybe the dividing line north or west of there your prob going to be fine east or south of there you may mix taint or flip to rain. Been a while since we have seen this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Ukie is basically a cold rainstorm if it's in the mid 30s during the entire event, what a massive bust that would be. Better hope the Euro looks more like the GGEM than the Ukmet. For some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Ukie is basically a cold rainstorm if it's in the mid 30s during the entire event, what a massive bust that would be. Better hope the Euro looks more like the GGEM than the Ukmet. What? It's mostly snow on the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Ukie is basically a cold rainstorm if it's in the mid 30s during the entire event, what a massive bust that would be. Better hope the Euro looks more like the GGEM than the Ukmet. Not for everyone.... Its a massive snowstorm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, swamplover56 said: For some Wouldn't it be fine with those dynamics for NYC? Maybe LI gets some taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: the biggest story with this system could be the wind, and absolutely nobody's talking about it. once again... 60 to 80 knot winds at 925mb....at 42 hours. That's why you don't want a hugger like the Ukmet shows, its scenario would wreak havoc on the coast. Major coastal flooding with those winds is far more destructive than a 12-18" snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: What? It's mostly snow on the Ukie. It's also the farthest west of the guidance and even then it's real close on the ukie. Ukiebscenario verbatim could be heavy snow in the Bronx and rain in brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Ukie is basically a cold rainstorm if it's in the mid 30s during the entire event, what a massive bust that would be. Better hope the Euro looks more like the GGEM than the Ukmet. The 850 Low stays SE of NYC the whole time. The 0C 850 line touches Queens. It's mostly snow with a touch of sleet for the NYC Metropolitan Area. East of there has Rain/Sleet/Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Ukie is basically a cold rainstorm if it's in the mid 30s during the entire event, what a massive bust that would be. Better hope the Euro looks more like the GGEM than the Ukmet. The Euro may not pick up on sleet mixing in even if it has the same track as the RGEM. I've seen cases before where it'll show all snow while the high res models pick up on the mid level mixing better. The surface temps won't be an issue except maybe eastern LI for a time. With heavy precip falling NYC will likely hold around 31-33. I had mentioned similarities to January 87 and that is what happened that day despite a 060-080 wind over 40mph at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Euro out to 30 enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: The 850 Low stays SE of NYC the whole time. The 0C 850 line touches Queens. It's mostly snow with a touch of sleet for the NYC Metropolitan Area. East of there has Rain/Sleet/Snow. 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro may not pick up on sleet mixing in even if it has the same track as the RGEM. I've seen cases before where it'll show all snow while the high res models pick up on the mid level mixing better. The surface temps won't be an issue except maybe eastern LI for a time. With heavy precip falling NYC will likely hold around 31-33. I had mentioned similarities to January 87 and that is what happened that day despite a 060-080 wind over 40mph at times. Deep breaths everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Billy's gonna do the pbp...so we don't have multiple people doing it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Our shortwave is further south like other guidance has gone, digging deeper, hights are building, and yet again better ridging out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, KeithB said: Billy's gonna do the pbp...so we don't have multiple people doing it... well its out to 42 already and i dont see anything. WSI is the fastest if hes using WXbell its only out to 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Congrats nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 SW energy is much stronger by 18z Monday, digging much further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 This things gonna look like ukie warm for coast. Mixing a legit threat now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Interior gets hammered on euro, NNJ, Hudson valley and NEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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