UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Seeing as how were still 72+ hours out.. this is the last 4 days of the GFS... starting at 7 days out from event.. pretty consistent in terms of long term modeling if you ask me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The GFS has 50-60 knot ENE winds into the NJ shore and LI south shore at 15z Tuesday. This roughly coincides with high tides, on a full moon. Coastal flooding would be horrendous with a scenario like this. Another reason to root for a further offshore track which would have northerly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Gefs mean east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, ag3 said: Gefs mean east. Looks like the EURO/UKMET ...to the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, ag3 said: Gefs mean east. Nobody should have to worry, still an absolute crush job well into PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Everyone, please post an image or link to back up any assertions. Please post an imagine when you say anything is east, west, more amped, less amped, etc. Post snow maps in banter so you don't give Forky a heart attack. Good stuff for the most part. Keep it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nobody should have to worry, still an absolute crush job well into PA Huge storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Everyone, please post an image or link to back up any assertions. Please post an imagine when you say anything is east, west, more amped, less amped, etc. Post snow maps in banter so you don't give Forky a heart attack. Good stuff for the most part. Keep it up. Here's the 0Z GEFS ensemble mean, right to the benchmark and east of 18z. Crusher for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Everyone, please post an image or link to back up any assertions. Please post an imagine when you say anything is east, west, more amped, less amped, etc. Post snow maps in banter so you don't give Forky a heart attack. Good stuff for the most part. Keep it up. Forky sounds like one of those kids who would have a seizure if he played a video game ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: Here's the 0Z GEFS ensemble mean, right to the benchmark and east of 18z. Crusher for the region. Just saw the members. They are around the mean. Op is an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Seeing as how were still 72+ hours out.. this is the last 4 days of the GFS... starting at 7 days out from event.. pretty consistent in terms of long term modeling if you ask me Billy, it seems to be bouncing both East and West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Would this storm have those superbands that setup with 3-4 inches of snow an hour in spots? Thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: Here's the 0Z GEFS ensemble mean, right to the benchmark and east of 18z. Crusher for the region. Thanks, can you post the map that shows the individual ensemble members on the map so we can see how they're clustered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 26 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Pretty much anything halfway decent would be a big storm for March; I can't remember anything bigger than 93 and I'm 54, the only other big storm came in April 82. Hell, let's go for that again we are way overdue....lots of you were even born yet. Can't describe how surreal that 82 storm was. April 1982 was more surreal than our recent 20-30 inch storms lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, sferic said: Would this storm have those superbands that setup with 3-4 inches of snow an hour in spots? Thundersnow? Yes...and thundersnow is a very good possibility. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: April 1982 was more surreal than our recent 20-30 inch storms lol. February Blizzard 1978 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Gefs is 12-18 for interior, 10-15 for coast, sharp cutoffs on mean, and NEPA is big winner with 20+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, sferic said: February Blizzard 1978 for me. yeah but you dont expect to see it in April lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, sferic said: Would this storm have those superbands that setup with 3-4 inches of snow an hour in spots? Thundersnow? In bands, absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 What do you define interior? And that's the smoothed mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, swamplover56 said: What do you define interior? And that's the smoothed mean? Sorry I know (banter) easier than explaining IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Can ulster or yanks do the euro pbp for those of us without paid maps please I could be wrong, but based on the western spread on the Eps... and what we've seen with the Gefs/ukie this far, I expect a slight shift west on euro.. not much... certainly nothing like the GFS... but my faith is leaning on a Virginia shore To Delmarva NE shot to east of ACY and a straight beeline to SE of Long Island to the south Cape... I don't like it coming off Delmarva as far offshore and south and taking a benchmark mark track from there.... my first call would be widespread 12-18" for everyone in this sub, if we go east the interior will certainly keep up using better ratios to compensate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 One has to ask what was the snowiest March on record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I could be wrong, but based on the western spread on the Eps... and what we've seen with the Gefs/ukie this far, I expect a slight shift wet on euro.. not much... certainly nothing like the GFS... but my faith is leaning on a Virginia shore To Delmarva NE shot to east of ACY and a straight beeline to SE of Long Island to the south Cape... I don't like it coming off Delmarva as far offshore and south and taking a benchmark mark track from there.... my first call would be widespread 12-18" for everyone in this sub, if we go east the interior will certainly keep up using better ratios to compensate If on the offchance the GFS turns out to be right, do you think it would be worth it for me to ride out the storm in my other residence in Carbon County? It's right in the middle of that big red spot on your map lol. Reasons why I might not want to is that if the power goes out I'm screwed- wouldn't be able to use the bathroom because I have my own well there and it needs electricity lol. No water without electricity! I don't have a generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, Paragon said: Thanks, can you post the map that shows the individual ensemble members on the map so we can see how they're clustered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, sferic said: One has to ask what was the snowiest March on record? March 1896 30" It used to be our snowiest month on record for a long time. It should actually be March 1888 but they undermeasured the big one in that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, sferic said: One has to ask what was the snowiest March on record? I would assume 1888. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Thanks RJ- those west leaning members are concerning, but we shall see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, Paragon said: If on the offchance the GFS turns out to be right, do you think it would be worth it for me to ride out the storm in my other residence in Carbon County? It's right in the middle of that big red spot on your map lol. Reasons why I might not want to is that if the power goes out I'm screwed- wouldn't be able to use the bathroom because I have my own well there and it needs electricity lol. No water without electricity! I don't have a generator. Yes. Go for it! I took a chance 2 weeks ago and drove up to North Conway Nh, and Fryeburg Maine for the 2 big storms. Had the time of my life, and I'll never forget it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, KeithB said: Yes. Go for it! I took a chance 2 weeks ago and drove up to North Conway Nh, and Fryeburg Maine for the 2 big storms. Had the time of my life, and I'll never forget it! Wow, how much snow did you see up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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