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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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The GFS has 50-60 knot ENE winds into the NJ shore and LI south shore at 15z Tuesday. This roughly coincides with high tides, on a full moon. Coastal flooding would be horrendous with a scenario like this. Another reason to root for a further offshore track which would have northerly winds. 

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Everyone, please post an image or link to back up any assertions.   

 

Please post an imagine when you say anything is east, west, more amped, less amped, etc.

 

Post snow maps in banter so you don't give Forky a heart attack.

 

Good stuff for the most part.  Keep it up.  

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3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Everyone, please post an image or link to back up any assertions.   

 

Please post an imagine when you say anything is east, west, more amped, less amped, etc.

 

Post snow maps in banter so you don't give Forky a heart attack.

 

Good stuff for the most part.  Keep it up.  

Here's the 0Z GEFS ensemble mean, right to the benchmark and east of 18z. Crusher for the region. 

IMG_5032.JPG

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4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Everyone, please post an image or link to back up any assertions.   

 

Please post an imagine when you say anything is east, west, more amped, less amped, etc.

 

Post snow maps in banter so you don't give Forky a heart attack.

 

Good stuff for the most part.  Keep it up.  

Forky sounds like one of those kids who would have a seizure if he played a video game ;-)

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15 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

 

Seeing as how were still 72+ hours out.. this is the last 4 days of the GFS... starting at 7 days out from event.. pretty consistent in terms of long term modeling if you ask me

 

2u5z7za.gif

Billy, it seems to be bouncing both East and West 

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5 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

Here's the 0Z GEFS ensemble mean, right to the benchmark and east of 18z. Crusher for the region. 

IMG_5032.JPG

Thanks, can you post the map that shows the individual ensemble members on the map so we can see how they're clustered?

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26 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Pretty much anything halfway decent would be a big storm for March; I can't remember anything bigger than 93 and I'm 54, the only other big storm came in April 82. Hell, let's go for that again we are way overdue....lots of you were even born yet. Can't describe how surreal that 82 storm was.

April 1982 was more surreal than our recent 20-30 inch storms lol.

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6 minutes ago, swamplover56 said:

Can ulster or yanks do the euro pbp for those of us without paid maps please

I could be wrong, but based on the western spread on the Eps... and what we've seen with the Gefs/ukie this far, I expect a slight shift west on euro.. not much... certainly nothing like the GFS... but my faith is leaning on a

Virginia shore 

To Delmarva 

NE shot to east of ACY

and a straight beeline to SE of Long Island to the south Cape... I don't like it coming off Delmarva as far offshore and south and taking a benchmark mark track from there....

 

my first call would be widespread 12-18" for everyone in this sub, if we go east the interior will certainly keep up using better ratios to compensate 

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1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

 

I could be wrong, but based on the western spread on the Eps... and what we've seen with the Gefs/ukie this far, I expect a slight shift wet on euro.. not much... certainly nothing like the GFS... but my faith is leaning on a

Virginia shore 

To Delmarva 

NE shot to east of ACY

and a straight beeline to SE of Long Island to the south Cape... I don't like it coming off Delmarva as far offshore and south and taking a benchmark mark track from there....

 

my first call would be widespread 12-18" for everyone in this sub, if we go east the interior will certainly keep up using better ratios to compensate 

If on the offchance the GFS turns out to be right, do you think it would be worth it for me to ride out the storm in my other residence in Carbon County? It's right in the middle of that big red spot on your map lol.

Reasons why I might not want to is that if the power goes out I'm screwed- wouldn't be able to use the bathroom because I have my own well there and it needs electricity lol.  No water without electricity!  I don't have a generator.

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6 minutes ago, Paragon said:

If on the offchance the GFS turns out to be right, do you think it would be worth it for me to ride out the storm in my other residence in Carbon County? It's right in the middle of that big red spot on your map lol.

Reasons why I might not want to is that if the power goes out I'm screwed- wouldn't be able to use the bathroom because I have my own well there and it needs electricity lol.  No water without electricity!  I don't have a generator.

Yes. Go for it! I took a chance 2 weeks ago and drove up to North Conway Nh, and Fryeburg Maine for the 2 big storms. Had the time of my life, and I'll never forget it!

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