KeithB Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, sferic said: Any guesses as to what Upton does with current snow predictions at 4AM? They need to be upped. 00z EURO in 38 minutes is a big run! Thatll help determine how much they up it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: 65mm of liquid for NYC based off the meteogram = 2.6" of liquid = over 30" of snow at 10:1 ratios. WTF. That's simply insane. Euro should be coming in similar maybe not as biblical but still should be good especially coming off this 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, snywx said: This I agree with 100%. Some of these guys down there don't realize that. No they really don't get it. Winter ends for some of these people in March in the HV it's just another winter month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: No they really don't get it. Winter ends for some of these people in March in the HV it's just another winter month. Well regardless this looks to be a beast for us. 2-3' is a real possibility here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: 65mm of liquid for NYC based off the meteogram = 2.6" of liquid = over 30" of snow at 10:1 ratios. WTF. Wouldn't 2.6" of liquid be 26 inches of snow at a 10-1 ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: Not trying to doubt you, but the NYC area gets up to nearly 36 degrees when most of the precipitation falls. The ratios - even if snow - would be about as bad as it gets. You're right if it happens like the Ukie shows. The island would have some issues too briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 If the ukie is correct whoever is just north and west of the r/s linebwill see ungodly rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: You're right if it happens like the Ukie shows. The island would have some issues too briefly. How is the UKMET with thermal profiles typically? Does it do well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, NYCGreg said: How is the UKMET with thermal profiles typically? Does it do well? I remember it having a slight warm bias...I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, NYCGreg said: How is the UKMET with thermal profiles typically? Does it do well? Decent. The Euro is better. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Multiply the inches of liquid by 12 and you'll get 10:1 ratios. Multiplying by 10 is like saying that there are 10" in a foot. No.. It's by ten like he said... Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Multiply the inches of liquid by 12 and you'll get 10:1 ratios. Multiplying by 10 is like saying that there are 10" in a foot. Wait what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Inches are inches...it's a straightforward conversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Multiply the inches of liquid by 12 and you'll get 10:1 ratios. Multiplying by 10 is like saying that there are 10" in a foot. A foot has nothing to do with it... ratios are calculated the same regardless of units used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, USCG RS said: No.. It's by ten like he said... Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Wait what? Oh sh*t. He was right. I'm not running on much sleep and i'm starting to lose it. Anyway, winds are strong on the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowjoe99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Multiply the inches of liquid by 12 and you'll get 10:1 ratios. Multiplying by 10 is like saying that there are 10" in a foot. oh i looooooove bad math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 18 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: If euro comes in like cmc rgem and ukie they prob go 16-22 or 18-24 if models begin coming into a consensus of a NYC lhv nnj jackpot you have to put the word out travel will be impossible and extremely dangerous. People die stranded in their cars Agreed but I think the hold at 12-18" and don't up until tomorrow afternoon if needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Agreed but I think the hold at 12-18" and don't up until tomorrow afternoon if needed Ukmet is warm... Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Ukmet is warm... Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk I doubt the NWS forecasters are going to get their judgement from the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Ukmet is warm... Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Do you have the temp profiles? I'm curious to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Ukmet is warm... Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk I don't buy that. And if it verifys the the worst case for power outages. Paste and very very high winds are not a good combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I doubt the NWS forecasters are going to get their judgement from the Ukie. Brother rgem and Ukmet are warm for most of LI and on the doorstep of nyc. They may hold off on a warning upgrade. Let's see what the euro says, with its better resolution. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsnow Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: I doubt the NWS forecasters are going to get their judgement from the Ukie. I think there gonna lower totals based on the track and mixing will occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I don't buy that. And if it verifys the the worst case for power outages. Paste and very very high winds are not a good combo What aren't you buying? The thermal profile, the location of the storm, or both? Don't mean to bombard you with questions, but you seem like one of the more knowledgeable posters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Jsnow said: I think there gonna lower totals based on the track and mixing will occur Based off the Ukie and RGEM> Every model has 15-20 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Do you have the temp profiles? I'm curious to see.h85Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Brother rgem and Ukmet are warm for most of LI and on the doorstep of nyc. They may hold off on a warning upgrade. Let's see what the euro says, with its better resolution. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk you can get a blizzard warning with 2 inches of snow, it has nothing to do with snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: you can get a blizzard warning with 2 inches of snow, it has nothing to do with snow amounts. Midwest gets it all the time People don't understand this. It's the wind aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 you can get a blizzard warning with 2 inches of snow, it has nothing to do with snow amounts.I am very aware of that. What I am saying is this does not quite look set in stone yet. I still. Believe we correct East a bit, but before issuing a Blizzard Warning, they may wait one cycle with the temp profiles and how tucked in these models are beginning to show. That being said, the Euro has the better resolution. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Billy....are you awake and online? 8 minutes until EURO initialization, and pbp. Crazy thing is I'm not even a superstitious person, and sometimes catch myself yelling at people who are. That said...who am I to interfere with what's been working for us ...and your pbp for the overnight EURO runs the previous 2 nights have done wonders!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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