Snowlover11 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I hate to say it but we're at the point now where I'm going to be bummed with anything less than 15 inches and even that isn't going to thrill me. you cant be serious right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 any thoughts on how warmer waters over the Atlantic could affect it, it will be tracking directly over the Gulf Stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I hate to say it but we're at the point now where I'm going to be bummed with anything less than 15 inches and even that isn't going to thrill me. See, when I see 30" and 40" totals printed out, I don't think "yay, we're getting 30 inches." I think "nice, even half of that leaves room for an awesome storm". I'll take 15" and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 ukie is super close for the city, but I believe they hold onto all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Ukie is a crippling blizzard for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, Manny said: Any idea on temps? def wound up and more west but just a simple question lol Not until the meteograms come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1250 AM EDT MON MAR 13 2017 VALID MAR 13/0000 UTC THRU MAR 16/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... ...AN EVALUATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS ALONG WITH PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE... ...SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST... PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH MODEST HEIGHT FALLS PULLING AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ARE WELL AGREED UPON BY RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. THUS...A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS RECOMMENDED. ...LEAD HEIGHT FALLS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...EVOLVING NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY... ...RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW AFFECTING THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY... ...NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW/ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE... PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE A COMBINATION OF ACTIVE JET STREAMS COUPLED WITH INTENSE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SET THE STAGES FOR A HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND. FIRST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWS A DECENT CYCLONIC SWIRL MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEB WITH THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO DIG ON ITS APPROACH TO THE CAROLINAS ROUGHLY 24 HOURS FROM NOW. ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WERE THE 12Z CMC/GFS-PARALLEL...PARTICULARLY BY 14/0600Z. THESE NOTED DIFFERENCES SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE AS THE SHORTWAVE ABRUPTLY LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE DELMARVA TO LOWER NEW ENGLAND COAST. CONSIDERING THE COASTAL LOW TRACK...THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD WHICH REMAINS ALTHOUGH IT HAS REDUCED RELATIVE TO RECENT MODEL CYCLES. THE CENTER OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTER GENERALLY CROSSES THE INFAMOUS 40N/70W BENCHMARK AROUND 15/0000Z WITH A FEW CAMPS EVIDENT. THE ECMWF MEMBERS CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER AND DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OF THE QUICKER GEFS ENSEMBLES. WHILE INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN...THE CMC ENSEMBLES SEEMS TO SIT SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THIS PAIR. CONSIDERING THE TRACK DEPICTED BY INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...THE 12Z CMC/UKMET PAINT THE TRACK CLOSEST TO THE COAST WHICH IS ON THE FAR WEST SIDE OF THE 90-MEMBER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. TO SOME EXTENT...THE 00Z NAM MIMICS THIS SOLUTION WHILE STRENGTHENING LOW LIFTS TOWARD COASTAL MA BY 15/0000Z. WHILE THE 00Z GFS/12Z GFS-PARALLEL AND 12Z ECMWF DO DIFFER...THEY HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT ON A RUN-TO-RUN BASIS. AS SUCH...WILL RESPECT THAT AND INCORPORATE THEIR SOLUTIONS INTO THE BLEND. UNTIL ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE ARRIVES...THE PREFERENCE WILL BE AN EQUAL BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF. REGARDING THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW SWINGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE ECMWF AND A VAST MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. THIS HAS REMAINED IN THE FORECAST THE PAST FOUR MODEL CYCLES WHICH SUGGESTS ITS AT LEAST BEEN CONSISTENT. THE MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION SHOWN BY THE 00Z GFS IS AGREED UPON BY THE LATEST 00Z NAM. FOR NOW WILL JUST SPLIT BETWEEN THE PAIR OF SCENARIOS. THE BLEND WILL BE THE SAME AS THE ABOVE COASTAL SYSTEM. ...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GULF OF CA/SEA OF CORTEZ BY MID-WEEK... PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE FORECAST CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE A CLOSED 582-DM MID-LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE 00Z NAM A BIT AHEAD OF THE REST OF THE PACK. GIVEN THE FACT MOST OF THE UNCERTAINTY IS ON THE MESOSCALE COMBINED WITH A LIMITED INFLUENCE ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL LEAN TOWARD A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE HERE. ...AMPLIFYING TROUGH AFFECTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY... ...APPROACHING SURFACE LOW/PACIFIC FRONTS... PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/18Z GEFS MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE MEAN RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 14/1200Z BEFORE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS TRACK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE FOLLOWING DAY. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE 12Z CMC CAME IN QUICKER WITH THE ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL FORCING AS IT TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TO BE FASTER WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION WHICH INCLUDES THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC FRONT. WHILE LARGE-SCALE SPREAD SEEMED ON THE LOWER SIDE BASED ON EVALUATION OF THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS...THERE ARE PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES COMPARING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS FROM ONE ANOTHER. WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE 00Z GFS/18Z GEFS MEAN HERE UNTIL FURTHER GUIDANCE ARRIVES. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... RUBIN-OSTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Snowlover11 said: you cant be serious right? Um yeah. All I've seen is maps of 20-30 inches for the last 2 days. So yeah a foot of snow would not do it for me right now, I've already had one 14 inch storm this year so if this somehow came up short of that I'd be disappointed for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Um yeah. All I've seen is maps of 20-30 inches for the last 2 days. So yeah a foot of snow would not do it for me right now, I've already had one 14 inch storm this year so if this somehow came up short of that I'd be disappointed for sure. Oh Jeez dude it's the middle of march. Not too often do you see a foot of snow this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: that track doesn't make sense given the panels showing it going over CT, that shows a track over the canal? Am I missing something.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2.5 QPF on the UKMET. A crippling blizzard for many locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Neblizzard said: Oh Jeez dude it's the middle of march. Not too often do you see a foot of snow this time of year. I agree with Cantmeasuresnow. Anything less than a foot at this point would be a major disappointment. Of course a foot is great for march...but at this point...it'd be a clear letdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I don't know what to say at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 But is the Ukmet cold enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowjoe99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Um yeah. All I've seen is maps of 20-30 inches for the last 2 days. So yeah a foot of snow would not do it for me right now, I've already had one 14 inch storm this year so if this somehow came up short of that I'd be disappointed for sure. Man, this really isnt how you wanna look at this storm. You get a foot, thats insane as is given that its mid-March. You get two feet, even better. But the amounts arent what matters. Stop stressing over 5 inches here and there and realize that this is a once or twice in a century type of storm and that YOU lived during it. That's a message to everyone. Be happy. Calm down. Enjoy this beast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: Paste bomb of those temps are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, SnoSki14 said: But is the Ukmet cold enough? For NYC 850 never get above 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 no mention of the 60 to 80 knot winds at 925mb ...southern NJ....at 42 hours (0z GFS) It's actually stronger than 850mb and will be occurring during heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Neblizzard said: Oh Jeez dude it's the middle of march. Not too often do you see a foot of snow this time of year. Not sure where your located but a foot of snow in the middle of March in the HV is not that big a deal. If you're in NYC LI or the Jersey shore I could see where it would be. Now 20 plus, that's a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: But is the Ukmet cold enough? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Any guesses as to what Upton does with current snow predictions at 4AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: But is the Ukmet cold enough? NYC gets to about 0 at 850 at hour 42. Maybe a little mixing ? But mostly all snow. Edit. My apologies it was tough to see at first. Zooming in we are at -2 C, so it's all snow for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Looks warm for the island for a certain part of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 this thing gonna cranking an easterly moist fetch over warmer water, and pivot thunder snow and death bands into NYC metro... east wind will be a factor imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, sferic said: Any guesses as to what Upton does with current snow predictions at 4AM? If euro comes in like cmc rgem and ukie they prob go 16-22 or 18-24 if models begin coming into a consensus of a NYC lhv nnj jackpot you have to put the word out travel will be impossible and extremely dangerous. People die stranded in their cars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Not sure where your located but a foot of snow in the middle of March in the HV is not that big a deal. If you're in NYC LI or the Jersey shore I could see where it would be. Now 20 plus, that's a big deal. This I agree with 100%. Some of these guys down there don't realize that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Yes Not trying to doubt you, but the NYC area gets up to nearly 36 degrees when most of the precipitation falls. The ratios - even if snow - would be about as bad as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 65mm of liquid for NYC based off the meteogram = 2.6" of liquid = over 30" of snow at 10:1 ratios. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, sferic said: Any guesses as to what Upton does with current snow predictions at 4AM? They need to be upped. 00z EURO in 38 minutes is a big run! Thatll help determine how much they up it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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