UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 How about the 35" sref plume for KNYC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Is 700mb where you want to look for vertical velocities? They look pretty intense here. They head north next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Snot Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Sinking air near the mid level centers. No, that is subsidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Rgem looks good, maybe mixing on parts of coast. Hard to tell with these maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Lord Snot said: No, that is subsidence Subsidence is sinking air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Awesome NAM runs for just about everyone in the northeast (who enjoys snow). That last band that pushes through on the 3km NAM is intenseSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NYC will be paralyzed Tuesday! Get out and enjoy if you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: Rgem looks good, maybe mixing on parts of coast. Hard to tell with these maps. I have it out to 36 and its west. Practically onshore near ocean city md. Mixing issues for sure for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM is west wow...really shocked it's that far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Looks like it moves from just off the Delmarva to cape cod... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: Looks like it moves from just off the Delmarva to cape cod... RGEM mixes up to city/long island, NNJ just survives... rockland county jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Snot Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I was kidding dawg... subsidence IS sinking air.. one in the same Yes, but I was trying to differentiate that from a dry slot, which I believe always occurs east of the 700mb low and is the result of air flowing in from a dry air mass, not subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM wouldn't be great for the coast. The 700mb low looks to track through upstate NY, the low hugs onto the coast for too far and the warm air doesn't have an issue surging in. Hard to say how much falls before a changeover but there would be one into NYC as well as a dryslot. These tucked in models are good to a point, but no matter what there isn't much good that can happen when winds turn easterly and the mid level low centers track to your west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 0z RGEM @ Hr40 A thing of beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 0z RGEM looks great for inland areas. The coast mixes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: RGEM wouldn't be great for the coast. The 700mb low looks to track through upstate NY, the low hugs onto the coast for too far and the warm air doesn't have an issue surging in. Hard to say how much falls before a changeover but there would be one into NYC as well as a dryslot. These tucked in models are good to a point, but no matter what there isn't much good that can happen when winds turn easterly and the mid level low centers track to your west. We better hope it's wrong then. But this is not the eastern correction one would have hoped for to kick off this model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM wouldn't be great for the coast. The 700mb low looks to track through upstate NY, the low hugs onto the coast for too far and the warm air doesn't have an issue surging in. Hard to say how much falls before a changeover but there would be one into NYC as well as a dryslot. These tucked in models are good to a point, but no matter what there isn't much good that can happen when winds turn easterly and the mid level low centers track to your west. RGEM is still outside its deadly range but it's becoming worrisome for the coast and nyc between the nam and rgem. Nam has not budged. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 0z RGEM looks great for inland areas. The coast mixes. South shore of LI turns to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 0z RGEM still gives NYC 15-20 before the mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: RGEM is still outside its deadly range but it's becoming worrisome for the coast and nyc between the nam and rgem. Nam has not budged. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk If there is mixing along with the NAM's 15-20 inches will take it. But there wasnt mixing except at immediate coast. RGEM is pretty much on its own, moreover, iy also, gives 15-20 inches. So....Im afraid I am missing the point? If vast majority of QPF is snow and some locations mix but make up for it in QPF so be it.. Each solution has its respective liabilities and assets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Neblizzard said: The NAM is all snow for nyc so not sure what you're talking about. Yes was just about to reply with something similar. Also, the RGEM is still a good dump regardless of mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Discouraging to the see the RGEM this far west, encouraging to see the NAM is not as bad. Both of those models tend to be too amped, so I would err on a further eastern solution from what they depict. That is, unless the GFS and ECMWF show something similar tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, mimillman said: Discouraging to the see the RGEM this far west, encouraging to see the NAM is not as bad. Both of those models tend to be too amped, so I would err on a further eastern solution from what they depict. That is, unless the GFS and ECMWF show something similar tonight. RGEM gives us around 15 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The NAM is all snow for nyc so not sure what you're talking about. What I mean is that even though the NAM is all snow, it's really close for comfort. I still believe the area will remain frozen, however, as the RGEM continues to amp up more as does the NAM, it must be watched if this amps enough for the storm to go over W LI or NYC. At that point, you get the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 0z RGEM still gives NYC 15-20 before the mix Exactly. People need to calm down and stop worrying about who gets the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 0z RGEM still gives NYC 15-20 before the mix If the low really does make it to Cape May or north of there, I doubt NYC sees that kind of snow before a changeover. I think it would be 8-10" max. Still very nice but 50 miles west would see double. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Looks like all snow for Edison on RGEM. All layers look cold. Close though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Exactly. People need to calm down and stop worrying about who gets the most snow. Yanks your in a good spot for this. Like my spot in parsippany but may ride it out in berkley heights either way 25-30 miles from the coast. Rgem is a beast for nnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Cantore decided Boston instead of NYC... looks like they may rain ..... lmao.. can't make it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Gfs running? Not for 10 more minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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