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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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7 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Problem is during that event that line was up in NE, pretty much everyone in our subforum (except for SW CT) had double digit snowfall in that one.

Of course it's possible, anything is possible- but is this likely- probably not.  Even if I was up in the Poconos right now, I'd still go with the Euro/EPS over any other model.  Any betting man would.

No....Middlesex and parts of Union were much lower, we never went over 10 in any storm that winter. We officially had 8 in Woodbridge. But it was still a good storm. I'm ok if someone else has more. These set ups are always dicey for my area, always on the rain snow line, always on the cutoff line.....

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Just now, mranger48 said:

I noticed qpf cut back significantly in Indiana and Ohio from 18z to 00z gfs. Is that due to the primary on the 00z actually being weaker?


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Probably. They would rely on the primary for their snow. We are relying on the coastal development from the southern feature interacting with the northern stream. 

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

No....Middlesex and parts of Union were much lower, we never went over 10 in any storm that winter. We officially had 8 in Woodbridge. But it was still a good storm. I'm ok if someone else has more. These set ups are always dicey for my area, always on the rain snow line, always on the cutoff line.....

Wow, you were really in a snow hole that winter, even though you are south of us.  I'm thinking of places like Toms River that got a ton of snow that winter.

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2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

To be honest, the GFS isn't much better.

Thinking back to the Feb 9th storm, even the GFS had a better idea than the Canadian. But I guess this run it's shifting toward the consensus, so maybe it's getting a clue. I'm going by what I'm reading here for the model outputs.

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2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

No....Middlesex and parts of Union were much lower, we never went over 10 in any storm that winter. We officially had 8 in Woodbridge. But it was still a good storm. I'm ok if someone else has more. These set ups are always dicey for my area, always on the rain snow line, always on the cutoff line.....

I was in Rahway for that storm we got 13" before the changeover. My parents in west orange got 19"

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I don't know if I recall any instances where the GFS was more west than the UKMET/Euro at Day 4 proceeding a major storm.

when it was west - what ended up verifying usually ?

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Just now, swamplover56 said:

I was in Rahway for that storm we got 13" before the changeover. My parents in west orange got 19"

I have heard that but the official measurement was 8 in Woodbridge; but in 2006 Rahway, which is right next to me, measured 28 and we had 18....not sure why but Rahway gets more

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Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Maybe I'm wrong but ukmet, clearly went east... but certainly not a benchmark track... it goes from Virginia inlets to Delmarva to just south of cape cod...that's west of the benchmark 

It's a perfect track for everyone.

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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

I have heard that but the official measurement was 8 in Woodbridge; but in 2006 Rahway, which is right next to me, measured 28 and we had 18....not sure why but Rahway gets more

because of the intense  banding - that difference wasn't caused by a rain/snow line like the GFS is showing this go around....

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Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Agreed 

Pretty much anything halfway decent would be a big storm for March; I can't remember anything bigger than 93 and I'm 54, the only other big storm came in April 82. Hell, let's go for that again we are way overdue....lots of you were even born yet. Can't describe how surreal that 82 storm was.

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