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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

78 is still the benchmark for me.   Been waiting for a redo first a long time.  Maybe this is the one.  Probably not but the possibility is still on the table.

Snow and wind are a stunning combination. Being on the edge of the interior winds don't necessarily verify like they do along the Jersey coast and across Long Island. It's a rarity that separates the great ones from the best. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is going to be all drifts if winds this high verify.

 

ecmwf_uv10g_mph_nyc_10.thumb.png.0726c7cb33b0771c95d97e620d0dfea4.png

 

I got my magnifying glass out and counted the colors.  That's 80 MPH in NW Suffolk.  Similar on south fork, but much less likely to mix in NW Suffolk.  "Boxing Day" was the windiest of the Y2K+ run of blizzards, but nothing like what's on this Euro map.  78 winds weren't this high in the same area, although I think they were higher than in Dec 2010

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Havent really budged amount or spot all day. Nice to see. 

 

 

 

I think that is from the older run? Newest run coming out now looks to be snowier NW, but cut down a bit areas closer to the coast. Newest plumes close to 10" in and around NYC. (Was close to 15" last run, by 10" the run before that) I still think a good range for the NENJ/NYC metro is 8-12" with 12-24" to the N

 

 

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3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Looks like the SREF actually backed down on snow for the metropolitan area. There must be some mixing involved. However up by Poughkeepsie the mean is up around 18"

I think the map just depicts precipation (liquid equivalent), so mixing would have no impact. 

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I think the metro is in for a lot of disappointment tonight regarding snowfall. I think the coast is at risk for major coastal flooding and very high winds. The mixing could be so significant that it turns to rain if models keep amping things up. This afternoons runs were a major red flag for that. 

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think the metro is in for a lot of disappointment tonight regarding snowfall. I think the coast is at risk for major coastal flooding and very high winds. The mixing could be so significant that it turns to rain if models keep amping things up. This afternoons runs were a major red flag for that. 

What? Based on what? We are heading into the time where the models tend to correct slightly SE aka 2015.

Next up is the high resolution models tomorrow where we can start to see where banding will setup. That will be the difference between 10 and 20"

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think the metro is in for a lot of disappointment tonight regarding snowfall. I think the coast is at risk for major coastal flooding and very high winds. The mixing could be so significant that it turns to rain if models keep amping things up. This afternoons runs were a major red flag for that. 

All afternoon models showed at least of foot of snow for the metro area. How is that in any way a major red flag?

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41 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Where did you find this on meteocentre? I can't for the life of me :lol:

Here you go bud.

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?mod=cmc_hrdps&map=qc&run=00&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest

 

It's next to the RGEM but only if you click the Quebec region on the top first.  It's the HRDPS.  This is the actual link to that model.

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I think the metro is in for a lot of disappointment tonight regarding snowfall. I think the coast is at risk for major coastal flooding and very high winds. The mixing could be so significant that it turns to rain if models keep amping things up. This afternoons runs were a major red flag for that. 


I think this afternoon's runs are an over correction west. This is normal. But time will tell

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