Blizzardo Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: I mean it wasn't nothing, it certainly clogged up the streets of Queens for a week and the LE was 3" so it was a really heavy snow. But it didn't have the winds of the Boxing Day Blizzard (which gusted close to 70mph and was down to 960mb if I remember correctly.) Me saying nothing is JMO from my perspective. It was a boatload of snow. But nothing like some other storms I have experienced with less snow and much higher drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Juliancolton said: Cool stuff! Hopefully an updated edition gets published in the near future - lots to catch up on since 2004. Wasn't Kocin the winter weather expert at TWC back in the day when TWC was actually a legitimate weather source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Right now I think any dry slot stays east of NYC. Looking at the Euro and other models, the 700mb and 850mb lows track over or SE of the city, meaning the dryslot and mixing should stay just east/south. The 700mb vertical velocity charts also suggest strong lift remaining across the city/western LI. But it wouldn't take much of a shift west from here to bring those in. Hopefully the west ticks are done and maybe we verify 30-50 miles east of where the GGEM/Euro are now. Long Island from the William Floyd Parkway on east are in danger though of seeing totals cut down from the dryslot/any mix. It won't be by a lot but I think by and large those areas stay under 12". The coastal flood threat is pretty significant IMO because of astronomical high tides and ferocious 60-70mph gusts moving water into the bays. I think it will be moderate for most and major in some vulnerable places like Freeport and Lindenhurst. If the low really does hug the coast, the winds will be even stronger and from more of an easterly direction. North and west of the city is likely where the best snows will be though, because the banding setting up there will likely be intense. Often, frontogenesis is strongest in N NJ, and bands like to set up there into the Hudson Valley from it. The hilly elevation also helps to channel moisture and set up the bands. That could also extend down towards Trenton. And yes, there will be local shaft zones from subsidence but those are impossible to predict right now. The tremendous lift and moisture pouring in will result in thundersnow in some areas, hopefully many areas. But the storm is moving pretty fast, so it will be a 12-15 hour event for most. My idea for totals: -Eastern half of Suffolk 8-12", west from there including NYC 12-16", NW of I-95 16-20", locally 24" in bands. Tonight and tomorrow 12z should show us the final tale, hopefully the tick east happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, White Gorilla said: Wasn't Kocin the winter weather expert at TWC back in the day when TWC was actually a legitimize weather source? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: Wasn't Kocin the winter weather expert at TWC back in the day when TWC was actually a legitimize weather source? Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Wasn't Kocin the winter weather expert at TWC back in the day when TWC was actually a legitimate weather source? TWC has some pretty good experts on hand again these days. Worth another shot if you swore off it after "Fat Guys in the Woods"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 https://digital.weather.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It was an amazing storm. I believe this storm has the potential to be the first March storm since the 1993 storm to bring 10" or more to Philadelphia, NYC, and Boston. I wonder if KU weigh a storm more if it is a late/early season event (or for high LE content or snowfall rates)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I'm fired up for you guys heck of a setup you have going on i traded my salt spreader for a seed spreader oh well been their done that stay well folks i'll be their in spirit. see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: TWC has some pretty good experts on hand again these days. Worth another shot if you swore off it after "Fat Guys in the Woods"... They do actually, I like listening from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Interesting "man never landed on the moon" take on the GFS, lol. I get it, but man, that would be just dumb if the NWS pros didn't actually believe the GFS was worth using. Perhaps more likely that they pay lip service to it, to keep management off their backs (although I imagine a supervisor could actually check the analysis/calcs). Don - good points - will be interesting to see the GFS evolution. The thing that really interests me the most is verification scores when it counts, i.e., on various kinds of snowfall scenarios (clippers, SWFEs, Miller A's and B's, etc.) and maybe rainfall scenarios, too. Who cares if a model has the best accuracy predicting sunny and warm if it's horrible predicting the really important events. Does anyone out there track that? It was off the cuff brother. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, mulen said: I'm fired up for you guys heck of a setup you have going on i traded my salt spreader for a seed spreader oh well been their done that stay well folks i'll be their in spirit. see ya Here to give yer blessing I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, JerseyWx said: They do actually, I like listening from time to time. They've started doing a better job of explaining the real dynamics of a system, the possible solutions, and talk a fair amount about the individual models and their biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Paragon said: I wonder if KU weigh a storm more if it is a late/early season event (or for high LE content or snowfall rates)? It is a combination of snowfall amounts, winds, and size of area affected. As projected.. I assume this will be high on the Nesis scale because of a very large area with 12-18+ possible if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Did the 21z SREF come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, mimillman said: They've started doing a better job of explaining the real dynamics of a system, the possible solutions, and talk a fair amount about the individual models and their biases. That's what I tune in for. I want to hear about the dynamics, upper air, etc. I understand they need to add the other stuff in between, but kudos to them for still including some good analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Wasn't Kocin the winter weather expert at TWC back in the day when TWC was actually a legitimate weather source? He was the best imo back then and awesome to watch. The one knock was March 01'. I'll never forget watching him show the graphic of deep purple for all of Northern NJ, NYC, LHV, CT and others with it saying 2-3 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Did the 21z SREF come out? Nope. They come out in about an hour due to DST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: That's what I tune in for. I want to hear about the dynamics, upper air, etc. I understand they need to add the other stuff in between, but kudos to them for still including some good analysis. They do a wunderground show too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: They do a wunderground show too Haven't seen that yet actually. Looks like an interesting segment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I miss Dave Schwartz in the overnight hours...he was one of the best with his punchlines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, mulen said: I'm fired up for you guys heck of a setup you have going on i traded my salt spreader for a seed spreader oh well been their done that stay well folks i'll be their in spirit. see ya Love to see you post here buddy. Hope the bass are biting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 31 minutes ago, Nibor said: Winds were strong here for last years blizzard, not quite as strong as forecasted. Boxing Day still is the most extreme blizzard I've experienced. The wind was incredible. 78 is still the benchmark for me. Been waiting for a redo first a long time. Maybe this is the one. Probably not but the possibility is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, NorthShoreWx said: 78 is still the benchmark for me. Been waiting for a redo first a long time. Maybe this is the one. Probably not but the possibility is still on the table. Yes, Feb 1978 blizzard was my favorite too followed by February, 1983 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 23 minutes ago, Doorman said: https://digital.weather.gov/ This is very cool, thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Hi res rgem, .8" LE all the way up to 84, by 11z Tuesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 15 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Haven't seen that yet actually. Looks like an interesting segment. It is, they take questions on twitter and answer them on air via experts as well as let weather station owners skype on air with them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 16 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: I miss Dave Schwartz in the overnight hours...he was one of the best with his punchlines May he R. I. P. He was on while he was still battling cancer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: 78 is still the benchmark for me. Been waiting for a redo first a long time. Maybe this is the one. Probably not but the possibility is still on the table. Thats the king like elvis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Hi res rgem, .8" LE all the way up to 84, by 11z Tuesday! How bout the rest of the metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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