EasternLI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 According to the 12z Euro run, any mixing is relegated to the south fork. Say from Southampton east. That's due to the mid level tracks encroaching on that area. Otherwise, good to go and even out there was still a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 35 minutes ago, Tibet said: Off topic, so this will be my only reply on the subject... but that isn't as crazy as it sounds. Quantum computers hold a lot of promise when it comes to weather forecasting... you see entities like IBM speaking up recently saying to the effect of "We think we have this down and you guys need to start developing software for these new machines...". Wouldn't be all that surprised to see some private entities taking advantage of a blossoming technology like this before government entities like NOAA can. Yes I agree I'm actually quite excited about quantum computing and AI- we're closer than we think- Google actually has AI technology very close to fruition (saw it on 60 Min) but they wouldn't elaborate about details. Watson is also taking strides in this direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Save a horse, ride the Euro. Add in the UKMET and RGEM and confidence is high. I'll go with a JP from TTN to SWF of 18"+ with 8-12" in the city due to possible mixing, strong winds and possible dry slotting. Do you think there's a chance Philadelphia could see more than NYC does? I actually saw that from some of the local outlets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: Do you think there's a chance Philadelphia could see more than NYC does? I actually saw that from some of the local outlets. Interesting thought A lot of the models it seem have a secondary max in SEPA/PHL area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Interesting thought A lot of the models it seem have a secondary max in SEPA/PHL area. I'm looking at a late season storm (from a long time ago granted) that had that kind of pattern- April 1915. PHL received 19 inches and NYC had 11. It's the April storm of record at both locations. Lots of stuff on this storm...I'd like to know what April snowstorm occurred in Philly 17 years prior to this one that was bigger than this since I can't find any. http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photo1915.html Philadelphia. Accumulations included: Atlantic City: 6.0"; Bridgeport: 6.4"; Cutchogue, NY: 10.0"; New York City: 10.2"; Newark, NJ: 15.8"; and, Philadelphia: 19.4" Source: Philadelphia Evening Public Ledger, April 3, 1915 News account from Philadelphia: "On the eve of Easter, Philadelphia is in the grip of the worst April snowstorm in years. As the fall of snow continued this afternoon [April 3] reports of damage to wires and the blocking of transportation came from all parts of the city and nearby points." Source: "Heaviest April Snowstorm in 17 Years Grips City," Philadelphia Evening Public Ledger, April 3, 1915. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 30 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: So you're going with the globals yet saying NYC gets accumulations shown by I think only the NAM and GFS... I think the Euro track is correct and that areas NW of the city will JP. Bernie Rayno mentioned in his 6:00 update that even though the Euro isn't showing much mixing for the coast, he believes that with that track that mixing is likely. Also remember that strong winds will hurt ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, Paragon said: I'm looking at a late season storm (from a long time ago granted) that had that kind of pattern- April 1915. PHL received 19 inches and NYC had 11. It's the April storm of record at both locations. Lots of stuff on this storm...I'd like to know what April snowstorm occurred in Philly 17 years prior to this one that was bigger than this since I can't find any. http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photo1915.html Philadelphia. Accumulations included: Atlantic City: 6.0"; Bridgeport: 6.4"; Cutchogue, NY: 10.0"; New York City: 10.2"; Newark, NJ: 15.8"; and, Philadelphia: 19.4" Source: Philadelphia Evening Public Ledger, April 3, 1915 News account from Philadelphia: "On the eve of Easter, Philadelphia is in the grip of the worst April snowstorm in years. As the fall of snow continued this afternoon [April 3] reports of damage to wires and the blocking of transportation came from all parts of the city and nearby points." Source: "Heaviest April Snowstorm in 17 Years Grips City," Philadelphia Evening Public Ledger, April 3, 1915. The newspaper article was written fairly early in the snowstorm, so the title of the article is somewhat misleading. It turned out to be the biggest April snowstorm there on record. FWIW, the March 1993 storm brought 12.0" to PHL and 10.6" to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 23 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 8-12? That seems too low based off the models 12-18 is a good call I'm really worried about some taint, although minimal and the strong winds hurting ratios. I also worry about that mega band forecasted to be just NW of 95 on most guidance causing a bit of subsidence along with possible dry slotting as the 700mb low makes a close approach to LI. 8-12 is conservative. It's not an outrageous call at this point. If things continue to trend more favorable tonight and tomorrow id increase the odds of 12+ in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I think the Euro track is correct and that areas NW of the city will JP. Bernie Rayno mentioned in his 6:00 update that even though the Euro isn't showing much mixing for the coast, he believes that with that track that mixing is likely. Also remember that strong winds will hurt ratios. I've always liked NNJ/SENY/Greater New England area for the greatest accumulations and have not seen much reason to change that thinking. Very rough thoughts CNJ: 8-14 NNJ:12-18 SENY:12-18 CT/MA/RI: 16-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Still no wsw in monmouth county? Kind of strange wheb twc forecast 12-18 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Still no wsw in monmouth county? Kind of strange wheb twc forecast 12-18 here They don't issue warnings based on TWC predictions. They will if and when they are comfortable doing so based on the guidance they are analyzing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 This is going to be all drifts if winds this high verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is going to be all drifts if winds this high verify. Wow, how does this forecast compare to last years blizzard in terms of wind? I remember we had decent wind here, but can't remember what was actually forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 god I cant imagine 60-65 mph gusts with heavy snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, donsutherland1 said: The newspaper article was written fairly early in the snowstorm, so the title of the article is somewhat misleading. It turned out to be the biggest April snowstorm there on record. Don, I'm finding so much info on this storm, it's amazing for a storm from over 100 years ago (aside for the 1888 Blizzard of course.) https://books.google.com/books?id=eeM_AAAAQBAJ&pg=PA325&lpg=PA325&dq=april+1915+snowstorm+philadelphia+and+new+york+city&source=bl&ots=5SAMy9aRez&sig=BFmKgLo4XPlG8y3Iq4qj1avnQGg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiYsunmlNLSAhXF7YMKHSFYDQ4Q6AEIUjAL#v=onepage&q=april 1915 snowstorm philadelphia and new york city&f=false From the Famous Kocin-Uccellini Book it mentioned that 21" fell across South Jersey, cannot imagine such an event in April, even though we had a cold Blizzard in April in 1982. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 36 minutes ago, USCG RS said: GFS funding comes from the US government. They need to have a reason to keep it. (of course this is very synical, but there's truth to it I guarantee) Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk 34 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The GFS has sufficient skill that it should be given some consideration. I still suspect that its precipitation shield is insufficiently expansive. The compromise solution taken by WPC would mitigate that issue. We'll see what the 0z shows, as the 18z may have improved somewhat at the mid-and-upper levels. Interesting "man never landed on the moon" take on the GFS, lol. I get it, but man, that would be just dumb if the NWS pros didn't actually believe the GFS was worth using. Perhaps more likely that they pay lip service to it, to keep management off their backs (although I imagine a supervisor could actually check the analysis/calcs). Don - good points - will be interesting to see the GFS evolution. The thing that really interests me the most is verification scores when it counts, i.e., on various kinds of snowfall scenarios (clippers, SWFEs, Miller A's and B's, etc.) and maybe rainfall scenarios, too. Who cares if a model has the best accuracy predicting sunny and warm if it's horrible predicting the really important events. Does anyone out there track that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Boxing Day storm was the last storm that had serious winds. That I recall? Am I missing one? Not sure what they were but it was ripping good. Last year's 30 incher was nothing.. just long duration snowfall.. that storm isn't even in my rankings of greats.. it was mostly gone 2-3 days afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: god I cant imagine 60-65 mph gusts with heavy snow falling. I thought that is what we had in the Boxing Day Blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 You can get the KU on Google Books now? Shucks, I paid like $100 for it back when it came out... heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Wow, how does this forecast compare to last years blizzard in terms of wind? I remember we had decent wind here, but can't remember what was actually forecasted. Winds were strong here for last years blizzard, not quite as strong as forecasted. Boxing Day still is the most extreme blizzard I've experienced. The wind was incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Interesting "man never landed on the moon" take on the GFS, lol. I get it, but man, that would be just dumb if the NWS pros didn't actually believe the GFS was worth using. Perhaps more likely that they pay lip service to it, to keep management off their backs (although I imagine a supervisor could actually check the analysis/calcs). Don - good points - will be interesting to see the GFS evolution. The thing that really interests me the most is verification scores when it counts, i.e., on various kinds of snowfall scenarios (clippers, SWFEs, Miller A's and B's, etc.) and maybe rainfall scenarios, too. Who cares if a model has the best accuracy predicting sunny and warm if it's horrible predicting the really important events. Does anyone out there track that? Also some of these models are better at predicting weather over some parts of the country or world than they are others. We have some complexity in our region of the world because of the interactions of several different types of airmasses and things like the Gulf Stream. I'm sure there is something similar in Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: I thought that is what we had in the Boxing Day Blizzard? I was away at the time so I personally didn't witness it. Unsure of the winds during it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: You can get the KU on Google Books now? Shucks, I paid like $100 for it back when it came out... heh. We got robbed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: Winds were strong here for last years blizzard, not quite as strong as forecasted. Boxing Day still is the most extreme blizzard I've experienced. The wind was incredible. Yes that was windy. Last year wasn't bad either, enough to make it a pain to measure lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: You can get the KU on Google Books now? Shucks, I paid like $100 for it back when it came out... heh. Damn.. I got my KU books when Paul was at Kean some years ago. Autographed by him and Uccelini. I forget what I paid. About 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I just hope they pick the right replacement. http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-national-weather-service-selects.htmlVery informative read. Ty Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: Boxing Day storm was the last storm that had serious winds. Not sure what they were but it was ripping good. Last year's 30 incher was nothing.. just long duration snowfall.. that storm isn't even in my rankings of greats.. it was mostly gone 2-3 days afterwards I mean it wasn't nothing, it certainly clogged up the streets of Queens for a week and the LE was 3" so it was a really heavy snow. But it didn't have the winds of the Boxing Day Blizzard (which gusted close to 70mph and was down to 960mb if I remember correctly.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Blizzardo said: Damn.. I got my KU books when Paul was at Kean some years ago. Autographed by him and Uccelini. I forget what I paid. About 100 Cool stuff! Hopefully an updated edition gets published in the near future - lots to catch up on since 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Juliancolton said: Cool stuff! Hopefully an updated edition gets published in the near future - lots to catch up on since 2004. At this rate we'll need a new one every 10 years instead of 50..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, Paragon said: Don, I'm finding so much info on this storm, it's amazing for a storm from over 100 years ago (aside for the 1888 Blizzard of course.) https://books.google.com/books?id=eeM_AAAAQBAJ&pg=PA325&lpg=PA325&dq=april+1915+snowstorm+philadelphia+and+new+york+city&source=bl&ots=5SAMy9aRez&sig=BFmKgLo4XPlG8y3Iq4qj1avnQGg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiYsunmlNLSAhXF7YMKHSFYDQ4Q6AEIUjAL#v=onepage&q=april 1915 snowstorm philadelphia and new york city&f=false From the Famous Kocin-Uccellini Book it mentioned that 21" fell across South Jersey, cannot imagine such an event in April, even though we had a cold Blizzard in April in 1982. It was an amazing storm. I believe this storm has the potential to be the first March storm since the 1993 storm to bring 10" or more to Philadelphia, NYC, and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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