March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Thank you  .

 

At 48 hours out , absolutes are a sin and there are no locks here but this has a chance to be a top 10 NESIS storm from DC to N/E .

I cant rule out a mix at the height but there could b 2 to 2.5 inches of liquid that  fall s / mix for 3 hours and 20 inches still fall .

 

People do not realize the genre this type of storm is falling into , its not your run of the mill 6 to 12 for most .

Most guidance has precip. moving into the area in about 30hrs.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The Ukie is my favorite model nowadays.  It's been so good the last couple of years with EC storms.  It hasn't been great with this storm so far.   It's been jumping around much like the other models but nothing too extreme.     Even the gfs hasn't been that bad overall.  It hasn't lost the storm once.

The only real gaff I've seen it have recently was it hung on to that dissolved clipper last week for ages.  The fact it was biting on it so hard I thought the euro was wrong 

[SACRUS]

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
510 PM EDT SUN MAR 12 2017

VALID 00Z MON MAR 13 2017 - 00Z THU MAR 16 2017

DAYS 1-3...

...MID ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST...

WHILE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS REMAIN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MON EVENING WILL DELIVER WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWS TO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR MID ATLANTIC AND THEN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS IT TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE COAST TUE-WED. 

GUIDANCE SHOWS MID-LEVEL ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MON EVENING WHERE IT IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN PHASING WITH SUBTROPICAL ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX.  BY EARLY TUE THIS PHASED ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH...ASSUMING A NEGATIVE TILT AHEAD
OF NORTHERN STREAM LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 
MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE TUE...GRADUALLY PHASING WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW AS THE LOW DRIFTS EAST.  AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MON
EVENING WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TUE BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY TUE EVENING.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 970S AS IT APPROACHES
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUE
AFTERNOON-EVENING.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS
ON THE DETAILS OF THE LOW TRACK...WHICH OF COURSE HAS SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST AS WELL.  FORTUNATELY
THROUGH 12Z TUE...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
WELL-CLUSTERED...WITH A LOW CENTER OFF OF THE DELMARVA COAST. 
THEREAFTER THE SPREAD INCREASES...WITH THE GFS MOVING TO THE
PROGRESSIVE AND EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE
ECMWF/UKMET/NAM CLUSTERED FURTHER TO THE WEST AS THE LOW MOVES
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE TUE INTO WED. 

WITH THE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO THAT POINT...WPC
PREFERRED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS INTO DAY 2
(ENDING 00 UTC WED)...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM DC TO
COASTAL MAINE.  MARGINAL LOW LEVEL/BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ARE LIKELY
TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  OF COURSE
ANY SHIFT IN THE SURFACE LOW TRACK COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ON WHERE THIS TRANSITION ZONE SETS UP.  FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD...WPC
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A MODERATE RISK FOR 24-HR
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FOOT OR MORE EXTENDING FROM N-CENTRAL MD TO THE
SOUTHERN MAINE COAST.  IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG UPPER
FORCING...LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. 

BY DAY 3 (ENDING 00 UTC THU)...HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CENTER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A
MODERATE RISK FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A FOOT OR MORE.  IN ADDITION TO
THE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SNOW...STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOURAGE
DEVELOPING LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS...BOLSTERING AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NY.  WITH THE SPREAD INCREASING AND THE GFS MOVING
TOWARD THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WPC PREFERRED A
SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.  BUT WITH THE ECMWF MOVING
TOWARD THE SLOWER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...INCORPORATED SOME OF THE
EC ENSEMBLE MEAN INTO THE PREFERRED SOLUTION AS WELL. 

...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
AS THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO HELP SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS SUN NIGHT INTO
MON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN...IA TO LOWER MI...NORTHERN IND
AND NORTHWEST OH.  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO CENTER ACROSS
EASTERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL...WHERE WPC
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 8-INCHES OR MORE FOR THE DAY 1 PERIOD (ENDING 00 UTC TUE).

THE PROBABILITY OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25 INCH OR MORE IS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT.

PEREIRA

[PB GFI]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

The Ukie is my favorite model nowadays.  It's been so good the last couple of years with EC storms.  It hasn't been great with this storm so far.   It's been jumping around much like the other models but nothing too extreme.     Even the gfs hasn't been that bad overall.  It hasn't lost the storm once.

 

The UKMET is the number 2 skill score model , it nailed Jan 16 and had this Jans 3 days out too .

 

The EURO/EPS/UKIE just look so good at 48 hours , its hard not to just sit back and enjoy 

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

You know better .

 

It continues to lag behind the guidance .

once again during predicted east coast cyclogenesis its east 48 hours prior .

When the breath of the guidance is close to 2 inches L/E 

PARA/UKMET/EURO/EPS/GEM/RGEM and the same model shows the same SE bias why would not recognize that its continuing to correct.

 

Unless you want to ignore the explosive guidance and key on the 1 poor model on the E/C for the sake of trolling.

Yeah, that's why they are replacing it.

 

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-to-develop-new-global-weather-model

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, PB GFI said:

 

The UKMET is the number 2 skill score model , it nailed Jan 16 and had this Jans 3 days out too .

 

The EURO/EPS/UKIE just look so good at 48 hours , its hard not to just sit back and enjoy 

Yea I spoke to that earlier or yesterday.  It's currently the 2nd best model for the NH at 500mb.

[PB GFI]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Most guidance has precip. moving into the area in about 30hrs.

 

Meant 36 , but yeh youre right.

I wish someone could pull up the 6z run of the GFS 36 out in Jan 

 

It printed out .15 .. 8 fell at the area airports.

 

Now it is correcting TBF , but theres better consolidation away for me to focus on .

[PB GFI]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that's why they are replacing it.

 

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-to-develop-new-global-weather-model

 

Man ,wouldn't it be great to be number 1.

I hope they can fix it 

 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, PB GFI said:

 

Man ,wouldn't it be great to be number 1.

I hope they can fix it 

 

I would also like to see some real time runs of the Panasonic that the owners of it keep raving about.

[Paragon]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would also like to see some real time runs of the Panasonic that the owners of it keep raving about.

a private model developed by Panasonic?

wouldn't be funny if all these models were replaced by models developed by private companies and we were all debating about which model was better- the panasonic, sony, samsung, apple, google, ibm watson or microsoft model? ;-) We're about to send two private citizens on a trip around the moon, so why not?

[SnowBlitzkrieg]

pretty incredible to see how expansive the 12-18" forecast is

[Stormlover74]

 Gefs ticked up a bit. 1"+ for most

[Tibet]

10 minutes ago, Paragon said:

a private model developed by Panasonic?

wouldn't be funny if all these models were replaced by models developed by private companies and we were all debating about which model was better- the panasonic, sony, samsung, apple, google, ibm watson or microsoft model? ;-) We're about to send two private citizens on a trip around the moon, so why not?

Off topic, so this will be my only reply on the subject... but that isn't as crazy as it sounds.

 

Quantum computers hold a lot of promise when it comes to weather forecasting... you see entities like IBM speaking up recently saying to the effect of "We think we have this down and you guys need to start developing software for these new machines...".

 

Wouldn't be all that surprised to see some private entities taking advantage of a blossoming technology like this before government entities like NOAA can.

 

[NJwx85]

Save a horse, ride the Euro. Add in the UKMET and RGEM and confidence is high. I'll go with a JP from TTN to SWF of 18"+ with 8-12" in the city due to possible mixing, strong winds and possible dry slotting.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

I'm facinated with verification scores, but I find they can very by locals.... I've been keeping my own plot for the 84 cooridor, it's on my computer, immgonna share it tomorrow. I save almost all the model runs under files and have an absolute inane stockpile of runs.. lol

 

its amazing the GFS was the the one and only model to catch up on this western track (other than early 84 hour Nam) only to fall into the most eastern/weaker outlier...

 

here's the GFS from last Wednesday!!!!

 

amazing it can come close to what the consensus is this far out, only to lose it entirely, completely fascinates me 

[NortheastPAWx]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Save a horse, ride the Euro. Add in the UKMET and RGEM and confidence is high. I'll go with a JP from TTN to SWF of 18"+ with 8-12" in the city due to possible mixing, strong winds and possible dry slotting.

So you're going with the globals yet saying NYC gets accumulations shown by I think only the NAM and GFS...

[BombsAway1288]

5 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

So you're going with the globals yet saying NYC gets accumulations shown by I think only the NAM and GFS...

Yeah that's a little iffy. I don't think the globals had any mixing in the city itself. Only maybe the immediate coast for a short time

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Gefs came west, they're still much weaker than most guidance 

[dmillz25]

Yeah I doubt the city mixes. Maybe eastern LI and the Jersey shore

[RU848789]

38 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
510 PM EDT SUN MAR 12 2017

VALID 00Z MON MAR 13 2017 - 00Z THU MAR 16 2017

MID ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST...

WITH THE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO THAT POINT...WPC
PREFERRED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS INTO DAY 2
(ENDING 00 UTC WED)...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM DC TO
COASTAL MAINE.  

So, I saw the various well-reasoned answers to warlock's question as to why one might not give the GFS runs much credence (and to me being an outlier vs. the other 3 global models is the biggest reason to ignore it), but clearly the WPC is using a GFS/ECMWF compromise for its forecast of this storm, so it's at least being given some credence.  Anyone care to comment on why they'd think it's good to use?

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Just now, RU848789 said:

So, I saw the various well-reasoned answers to warlock's question as to why one might not give the GFS runs much credence (and to me being an outlier vs. the other 3 global models is the biggest reason to ignore it), but clearly the WPC is using a GFS/ECMWF compromise for its forecast of this storm, so it's at least being given some credence.  Anyone care to comment on why they'd think it's good to use?

Yup never use anything else it seems... eps is the highest skill scoring model there is, with ukie number 2, how often do you here them give it any credit 

[donsutherland1]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would also like to see some real time runs of the Panasonic that the owners of it keep raving about.

I agree. Unless a model is used in a transparent sense in a forecasting environment, it's difficult to give much credence to claims. The data needs to be available to make comparisons. It isn't.

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Save a horse, ride the Euro. Add in the UKMET and RGEM and confidence is high. I'll go with a JP from TTN to SWF of 18"+ with 8-12" in the city due to possible mixing, strong winds and possible dry slotting.

8-12? That seems too low based off the models

12-18 is a good call

[Mophstymeo]

So, I saw the various well-reasoned answers to warlock's question as to why one might not give the GFS runs much credence (and to me being an outlier vs. the other 3 global models is the biggest reason to ignore it), but clearly the WPC is using a GFS/ECMWF compromise for its forecast of this storm, so it's at least being given some credence.  Anyone care to comment on why they'd think it's good to use?

Probably because it's within the realm of possibility.

Sent from my SM-G360T using Tapatalk

[USCG RS]

So, I saw the various well-reasoned answers to warlock's question as to why one might not give the GFS runs much credence (and to me being an outlier vs. the other 3 global models is the biggest reason to ignore it), but clearly the WPC is using a GFS/ECMWF compromise for its forecast of this storm, so it's at least being given some credence.  Anyone care to comment on why they'd think it's good to use?

GFS funding comes from the US government. They need to have a reason to keep it. (of course this is very synical, but there's truth to it I guarantee)

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, Paragon said:

a private model developed by Panasonic?

wouldn't be funny if all these models were replaced by models developed by private companies and we were all debating about which model was better- the panasonic, sony, samsung, apple, google, ibm watson or microsoft model? ;-) We're about to send two private citizens on a trip around the moon, so why not?

Yeah, they claim that the results have been pretty good.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/04/tv-maker-panasonic-says-it-has-developed-the-worlds-best-weather-model/

 

 

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

So, I saw the various well-reasoned answers to warlock's question as to why one might not give the GFS runs much credence (and to me being an outlier vs. the other 3 global models is the biggest reason to ignore it), but clearly the WPC is using a GFS/ECMWF compromise for its forecast of this storm, so it's at least being given some credence.  Anyone care to comment on why they'd think it's good to use?

The GFS has sufficient skill that it should be given some consideration. I still suspect that its precipitation shield is insufficiently expansive. The compromise solution taken by WPC would mitigate that issue. We'll see what the 0z shows, as the 18z may have improved somewhat at the mid-and-upper levels.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Jma punches close to 1" QPF all the way to Albany add it to the list lol 

 

edit: navgem also.. past Albany lol 1" line 

 

gfs is truly alone 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

GFS funding comes from the US government. They need to have a reason to keep it. (of course this is very synical, but there's truth to it I guarantee)

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
 

I just hope they pick the right replacement. 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-national-weather-service-selects.html

[swamplover56]

6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Jma punches close to 1" QPF all the way to Albany add it to the list lol 

 

edit: navgem also.. past Albany lol 1" line 

 

gfs is truly alone 

How does the jma look for metro?