winterwx21 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 985 WELL west of the benchmark. And nobody north or west of NYC gets into the really pounding echoes... I'll believe that as much as I believe Long Island flips to rain.. b.s GGEM actually seems like a good model compared to GFS. THAT'S how bad GFS has been this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Looks close to BM to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Fortunately GFS has zero support... ukie/euro/Nam/ggem/RGEM vs eastern GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I've noticed GFS isnt that bad with track, but it's northern and western precip shields are absolute garbage compared to all other guidanceWhich is normal for the GFS with these storms. With the h5 between the American and foreign models, the whole area is getting destroyed. End of discussion. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, winterwx21 said: GGEM actually seems like a good model compared to GFS. THAT'S how bad GFS has been this winter. It's seemed to always have a problem as of late with large scale coastals. It refused to budge on last January blizzard til the oz run as snow was starting. Like Ucs said if you just looked at upper air patterns and low placement it would match up with the other globals there is something really wrong with it regarding east coast coastal storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 But it came west ? If it came west on track at least it's going towards the others, even though it shouldn't really matter with the Ukie/Euro combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Any mets, or jm, bluewave, don, can explain why the gfs has this problem? Lower resolution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 13 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: It's not the east and west that seems to matter on the GFS... it's the northern extent of the precip shield... it's just non existent on the GFS... ever model has a massive swath of heavy precip north of the LP, except the GFS GFS does this often with southern stream juiced up systems. Can't handle dynamics with its low resolution. You guys are going to get crushed. This isn't a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 why are people just tossing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Any mets, or jm, bluewave, don, can explain why the gfs has this problem? Lower resolution? Yes. Convection screws it up due to low resolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The 18Z Cobb Method for the NAM/GFS is 15" & 20" respectively (LGA), except the GFS does more with less precipitation. The SREF Plumes for LGA seem to have settled at 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Any mets, or jm, bluewave, don, can explain why the gfs has this problem? Lower resolution? My hypothesis is that the Euro's better initialization scheme and resolution probably give it a better mid-level processing than the GFS. The end result is a broader qpf field. That the RGEM also has a broader qpf field lends support to such an idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, donsutherland1 said: My hypothesis is that the Euro's better initialization scheme and resolution probably give it a better mid-level processing than the GFS. The end result is a broader qpf field. That the RGEM also has a broader qpf field lends support to such an idea. Perfect answer from the expert. Getting the mid levels right is crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Any mets, or jm, bluewave, don, can explain why the gfs has this problem? Lower resolution?It's a combination of the lower resolution and bias. The GFS does very poorly with Southern stream systems as well. They tend to be much more dynamic and with phasing, it tends to not have the resolution to see the phasing correctly (assuming it is indeed incorrect). The thing with this storm is that it's all about the phase a stronger phase will slow this down and bend it back west. Without, we'll see the GFS Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: My hypothesis is that the Euro's better initialization scheme and resolution probably give it a better mid-level processing than the GFS. The end result is a broader qpf field. That the RGEM also has a broader qpf field lends support to such an idea. Thanks as always don s spreading the knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The GFS and NAM are also later starting the snow which leads to lower amounts. They do for different reasons though. The NAM hangs onto the inland low too long and is slow developing coastal precip til late. The GFS isn't recognizing the extent to which overrunning snows probably break out north of the surface low so it's fairly late as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Perfect answer from the expert. Getting the mid levels right is crucial. Much better than the answer I had, thanks brother. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The 18Z Cobb Method for the NAM/GFS is 15" & 20" respectively (LGA), except the GFS does more with less precipitation. The SREF Plumes for LGA seem to have settled at 10". Now this is concerning. The SREF Plumes - while out of ideal range - are very helpful in identifying trends. In our busts, the SREFs have lowered steadily towards the event. In last year's blizzard, they increased steadily as the event grew near. I'm not suggesting LGA will end up with 10", but the fact that the mean continues to decrease is a bad omen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, USCG RS said: It's a combination of the lower resolution and bias. The GFS does very poorly with Southern stream systems as well. They tend to be much more dynamic and with phasing, it tends to not have the resolution to see the phasing correctly (assuming it is indeed incorrect). The thing with this storm is that it's all about the phase a stronger phase will slow this down and bend it back west. Without, we'll see the GFS Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Do the upper patterns in your opinion look favorable for the stronger phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, USCG RS said: Much better than the answer I had, thanks brother. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Loved your explanation too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, NYCGreg said: Now this is concerning. The SREF Plumes - while out of ideal range - are very helpful in identifying trends. In our busts, the SREFs have lowered steadily towards the event. In last year's blizzard, they increased steadily as the event grew near. I'm not suggesting LGA will end up with 10", but the fact that the mean continues to decrease is a bad omen. Our resident pessimist is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Do the upper patterns in your opinion look favorable for the stronger phase? Yes, imho the h5 for this storm is one of the best looking potentials for a storm I've seen outside of a class textbook. Even the GFS looks like it should be better than what the surface shows. That being said, I still believe the storm should translate around 50-75 miles east tonight as while I believe the phase will be strong, I'm not positive it will be as clean as some of the models are showing. A three hr difference in phasing makes all the difference. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: Now this is concerning. The SREF Plumes - while out of ideal range - are very helpful in identifying trends. In our busts, the SREFs have lowered steadily towards the event. In last year's blizzard, they increased steadily as the event grew near. I'm not suggesting LGA will end up with 10", but the fact that the mean continues to decrease is a bad omen. There are probably some overamped members in there which is likely bringing dryslot issues/mixing. Or we have the ones like the GFS which are likely incorrectly chasing convection east. Either way I wouldn't worry much about it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, danstorm said: Our resident pessimist is back More than one on here. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Now this is concerning. The SREF Plumes - while out of ideal range - are very helpful in identifying trends. In our busts, the SREFs have lowered steadily towards the event. In last year's blizzard, they increased steadily as the event grew near. I'm not suggesting LGA will end up with 10", but the fact that the mean continues to decrease is a bad omen.The current run of the SREF plumes give NENJ/NYC area closer to 15". The prior run gave closer to 10"Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, USCG RS said: Yes, imho the h5 for this storm is one of the best looking potentials for a storm I've seen outside of a class textbook. Even the GFS looks like it should be better than what the surface shows. That being said, I still believe the storm should translate around 50-75 miles east tonight as while I believe the phase will be strong, I'm not positive it will be as clean as some of the models are showing. A three hr difference in phasing makes all the difference. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Would that east tick translate to big differences in snow amounts inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, USCG RS said: Yes, imho the h5 for this storm is one of the best looking potentials for a storm I've seen outside of a class textbook. Even the GFS looks like it should be better than what the surface shows. That being said, I still believe the storm should translate around 50-75 miles east tonight as while I believe the phase will be strong, I'm not positive it will be as clean as some of the models are showing. A three hr difference in phasing makes all the difference. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk I agree-the models may have overamped today and may correct east a bit. I'm not sure I see the low going almost due north from Cape Hatteras given how progressive the overall pattern is. I'm pretty sure it goes southeast of Montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, danstorm said: Our resident pessimist is back It's not pessimism. I am not throwing myself off a cliff over the GFS or other models that may not be showing great solutions, as the explanations for those are fine. But I've found in the past that the SREF trends are pretty helpful in identifying whether a storm will underperform or overperform. I'm not suggesting that we're now in line for 2 inches; I'm just saying I'd rather see those plumes go up than down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, danstorm said: Our resident pessimist is back And the plumes have gone up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: Would that east tick translate to big differences in snow amounts inland? Depends on how far inland a 50 mile correction is just that a correction for Albany or readding pa sure for our metro area. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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