snywx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 18z RGEM @ 44hrs Interior crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, snowman19 said: I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the storm moves a little more east on the models tonight and tomorrow Based on what. I kinda of agree but your making a prediction without stating your reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the storm moves a little more east on the models tonight and tomorrow Please state your reasoning why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I'm just sitting here waiting for Mulens one liner.... I know he's watching....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Like I said earlier, the west trend is real. Rgem also shows it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Surprised we are still seeing such difference 2 days out between the models. Seemed like we had more agreement a few days ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 RGEM would bring mixing issues similar to 3knam... I highly doubt that verifies with a bombing low in that position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Please state your reasoning why. Looks like the storm will have dual lows. The warm seclusion development and convection offshore may push the low track more east towards it at the last minute, path of least resistance. Most likely a slight east movement. I think it's a general, broad brush 12-18 inch snowfall for the metro between early Tuesday morning and early Tuesday night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM would bring mixing issues similar to 3knam... I highly doubt that verifies with a bombing low in that position. Yea the rgem track is suspect and on its own as well. Not the ideal run but still 10+ for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM would bring mixing issues similar to 3knam... I highly doubt that verifies with a bombing low in that position. I'm not quite sure why we are using the meso scales at 36 h anyway tbh esp the nam. Rgem h5 is fantastic phases at a great spot. It's not only looking at surface maps. If the mesos are showing mixing tomorrow afternoon I'd worry stick with the globals for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Hey, this is what makes tracking these storms so exciting. Half the journey is getting there! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Stop with the bickering and overreacting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Stop with the bickering and overreacting. Just seems some never look at h5 only the surface and then snow maps. Nam h5 has been getting better and better eventually that will translate down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Mt. Holly already stated mixing is likely for a time but unless the low tracks over the area or to our west then we'll still get a ton of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: I'm not quite sure why we are using the meso scales at 36 h anyway tbh esp the nam. Rgem h5 is fantastic phases at a great spot. It's not only looking at surface maps. If the mesos are showing mixing tomorrow afternoon I'd worry stick with the globals for now I agree, I wouldn't start using the mesoscale models until tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yea the rgem track is suspect and on its own as well. Not the ideal run but still 10+ for all. No way under those dynamics is anyone but the ocean flipping, we're talking about an absolute cranking bomb offshore, you would literally need the LP to track over islip to see Long Island flip imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The RGEM has mixing all the way back to eastern PA with an offshore track? That...doesn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, swamplover56 said: Just seems some never look at h5 only the surface and then snow maps. Nam h5 has been getting better and better eventually that will translate down to the surface. That is such an important point. People including me sometimes need to broaden out and look at the big picture instead of getting stuck on maps and surface details. As long as the mid levels are prime, everything will sort out favorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: No way under those dynamics is anyone but the ocean flipping, we're talking about an absolute cranking bomb offshore, you would literally need the LP to track over islip to see Long Island flip imo +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I've noticed GFS isnt that bad with track, but it's northern and western precip shields are absolute garbage compared to all other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Gfs again digging more trough is less progressive and the phase is cleaner. Let's see how this translates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, swamplover56 said: Gfs again digging more trough is less progressive and the phase is cleaner. Let's see how this translates It's about the same, GFS north and west screw zone, keeps the best dynamics to the NE of the Low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I've noticed GFS isnt that bad with track, but it's northern and western precip shields are absolute garbage compared to all other guidance Goofus doing Goofus things - it'll catch up tomorrow around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 It's not the east and west that seems to matter on the GFS... it's the northern extent of the precip shield... it's just non existent on the GFS... ever model has a massive swath of heavy precip north of the LP, except the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Well you have the euro showing 2 feet in the lhv and the gfs showing 2-4" wonder who wins this battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: +1 Agree. As long as your Nw of the coastal front you see all snow. I could see the coastal front wiggling into the island for a bit and giving a couple hours of mix. but the dynamics are going to be insane! Probably our best shot at thundersnow in years. This late in the season there is going to be allot more convection then you would see in say january. That why I think we have a shot at some insane rates. Everyone take lots of video this is a storm your going to want to rewatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Gfs is stronger and west Coming around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 985 WELL west of the benchmark. And nobody north or west of NYC gets into the really pounding echoes... I'll believe that as much as I believe Long Island flips to rain.. b.s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 985 WELL west of the benchmark. And nobody north or west of NYC gets into the really pounding echoes... I'll believe that as much as I believe Long Island flips to rain.. b.s Convective Feedback maybe? GFS should have been a crusher area wide. Precipitation just doesn't expand as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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