March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

RPM is well west... I hate this model anyway lol

Is there a chance this can go even further west as in coastal hugger?

[larrye]

50 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I think 10" is a great snowstorm, especially in March.  Start relatively modestly with expectations and adjust as necessary.  Forget about 40" or even 30"  That's just fantasyland.  We won't really know where the bigs snows will setup until the banding is already evident on radar.  In several decades of living in the HV, I've never personally seen a 20" snowfall.  I know it has occurred in different parts of the region, but never IMBY.  Historical snowstorms are rare for a reason.

Exactly. The past accums that are being referenced are in Orange County and upstate NY ... not the greater NYC area. The question was asked whether accums like this are even possible. Anything's possible, but we are talking about a March storm ... consider climatology ... and there have been numerous times when models like the NAM and the Euro have spat out very high totals even in the dead of winter when we ultimately discovered them to be unrealistic. I'm not saying that it can't happen. Just saying to temper your expectations. These are just models ... computer programs ... and yes there is also a dependency on where the CCBs set up.

We've certainly seen 18" - 30" of snow in recent years in or near NYC. Whether it will get close to or exceed 30" is something that regardless of model output, you shouldn't hang your hat on.     

[brooklynwx99]

Through 26, SS is digging deeper and so is the NS, but to a lesser extent. There is much more STJ energy out in front of the trough, which is

a great sign.

[mimillman]

Boston dropped the blizzard watches and went with winter storm warnings instead. Interesting, wonder if Upton follows suit.

[Paragon]

7 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Usually they do 12-18 hours for blizzard warnings.

So tomorrow morning should be the time frame for them.

 

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Boston dropped the blizzard watches and went with winter storm warnings instead. Interesting, wonder if Upton follows suit.

They still have a watch.

[JerseyWx]

3 minutes ago, Paragon said:

So tomorrow morning should be the time frame for them.

 

Yeah, I would assume if tonight's runs continue the trend, blizzard warnings should go up tomorrow (if they feel it's necessary of course).

[Animal]

4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Boston dropped the blizzard watches and went with winter storm warnings instead. Interesting, wonder if Upton follows suit.

they still have blizzard watch. Warning issued too.

[brooklynwx99]

Through 30, the SS energy is digging much more and is holding back. There is also a significant increase in the amount of energy out ahead of the trough. NS energy is digging farther south as well. Should be a nuke.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Nam slightly west so Far

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Upton issues warnings

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

12-18 WSW up from Albany and upton 

[KeithB]

1 hour ago, Metasequoia said:

This hardly matters I'm sure, but what's the potential for the ULL to pivot through the region on Wednesday and give us more accumulating snow?

It matters imo. Not only do we want every last inch out of this beast...but I LOVE the look of scattered snow showers during the aftermath of the big snowfalls!

[KeithB]

1 hour ago, sferic said:

After tonight's 00Z runs can we call this a lock?

Never a lock

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

1005 50 miles east of NC shore line 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

The amount of offshore energy on the nam is unreal... I'd say it's almost way overdone if the euro and ukie weren't so similar 

[nesussxwx]

Mt.Holly just put up WSW for NWNJ/NEPA.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

993 just east of Delmarva, pretty good jump NW of 12z

[KeithB]

46 minutes ago, Rjay said:

This will (prob) be the last time ensembles (somewhat) matter with this storm. 

Rjay....may I ask why are ensembles much more important 48+ hours, but inside of 48 hours much less meaningful?

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Hr 42 all of jersey. NYC, Long Island and LHV are getting crushed

[snywx]

NAM @ 42 is west but colder

[SnowBlitzkrieg]

Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Hr 42 all of jersey. NYC, Long Island and LHV are getting crushed

yep. not even close to mixing.

[WaPo]

Classic comma shape nor'easter on the NAM. Southern stream energy looks really good on H5 as well.

[RU848789]

Well, Mt. Holly answered my question of why no blizzard watches for the NJ coast: basically, they're not confident enough it'll be all snow when the worst winds hit and may just issue a wind warning. With such screaming winds, they're thinking there might/will be significant sleet/rain at the coast and inland a bit. That hasn't shown up on the snowier models, from what I've seen, but I recall the NAM had some of that. Do people think the NJ coast is really going get that much sleet/rain - they even said maybe sleet inland to 78 for a short time..  

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***Major 12 to 15 hour winter storm to produce high impact event
most of our area between roughly 3 AM and 3 PM Tuesday***

2AM Tuesday: As a forecaster, my suggestion from the vast majority
of the forecast information is that you want to be, wherever
you can be safe and comfortable for 18 hours, by 2 AM Tuesday,
with subsequent gradual recovery and resumption of traveling
life starting late Tuesday or Tuesday night. This is likely to
be the heaviest snowstorm of the winter, so far, for all of our
area except the ACY area to Sussex County DE storm in early
January.

Hazards:

1) Snowfall:

Warning 8-18" much of e PA and NNJ with blowing and drifting a
possible problem. Small chc of a period of sleet near I-78
around or shortly after sunrise. Snowfall of 1-2"/hour possible
for several hours. Above average confidence.

Warning 6-12" along I-95 PHL to ILG and extreme ne MD where
several hours of sleet between 5 am and 10 am could knock down
snow amounts close to 6 inches. More details tomorrow when we
are more certain of thermal profiles

Watch: Greater than 6" possible. Many complications can occur
in the eastern NJ. More details tomorrow when we can maybe figure
out the reliable expected thermal profiles. The potential is to
change to sleet or rain as temperatures attempt to rise to near
40 for a few hours near or after sunrise when ne winds hammer
the coast with 50 to 60 MPH.

2) Coastal flooding: see coastal flood section.

3) Wind: Northeast wind gusts 50 to 60 mph along the nearest
few miles of the coast Tuesday morning with scattered power
outages expected before winds turn north and northwest and
diminish Tuesday midday or afternoon. At this time, if its
snowing, we ?may? consider Blizzard, but if its rain, then a
high wind warning will work. There is not currently a heavy
inclination to fcst a blizzard in Monmouth county.

The brunt of this event should occur between 3 AM Tuesday and 3
PM Tuesday which will include snowfall rates of 1-2"/hour for a
few hours northwest of I-95.

This storm will show accumulations on pavement, especially prior
to 8AM Tuesday and then during the day where snowfall rates of
1-2"/hour occur. The difference between this and last Friday
March 10, aside from much heavier precipitation amounts, higher
wind, and slightly colder temperatures during the storm, is the
antecedent ground temperatures. On Friday, the 30 degree snowfall
occurred 12 to 15 hours after high temperatures ranged from the
upper 50s to upper 60s. This time, it will occur with frozen or
nearly frozen ground that includes yesterdays, 2nd or 3rd
coldest daytime temps of the winter, and several nights of
below freezing temperatures.

Uncertainty: the usual caveats based on track, modeled deformation-
lift in the dendritic growth zone, as well as periods of recovery,
even during the day when snowfall rates in the bands become light,
but overall confidence is above average on a high impact event,
especially Tuesday morning.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

They also issued a coastal flood watch, especially for Tuesday morning when they expect moderate flooding (2-3' above the astronomical high tide). 

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=coastal flood watch

[KeithB]

28 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I am surprised Mt.Holly didn't go with a Blizzard Warning for my area. I think they are going to upgrade later or in the morning considering how the models are looking. 

Yea...they will probably post it at their 3:30am ish update...

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

1 minute ago, snywx said:

NAM @ 42 is west but colder

And slightly weaker too for some reason

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

And slightly weaker too for some reason

Then it almost goes ese at 45

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Nams final result doesn't look much different form 12z to me, certainly not the nuke I was expecting 

[nyblizz44]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Then it almost goes ese at 45

ESE?? not ENE?.. is it looping?

[WaPo]

Trough slightly negative at HR 48.