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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential

NEG NAO

By NEG NAO,
in New York City Metro

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Take your foot and be glad. It's about time we had this track.

Yeah see my post-

I understand JM though.  He's upset because he missed out on our 30 incher last year.  I'm extremely happy to get anything, even all rain, it doesn't matter, because I feel like I already got to experience the most extreme storm this area could ever see anyway. It's not like this could ever top what this area had last year.

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KeithB

KeithB

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I live 15 miles from the city. I can see the skyline a mile from here.

That 15 miles could be the difference with a storm like this. Im 23 miles NW of NYC. Looking good right now...but far from a done deal obv

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KeithB

KeithB

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Even the City gets a foot, unlike with the 12z and 18z runs. The Interior has more, but it's a great storm for much of the area.

There is something about jackpotting. The way human nature works, ( at least for me) a lot of us would be happier with 12 inches if it's their area that's jackpotting, wheras they wouldn't be quite as happy with 14 inches when many areas within 25 miles of them are getting 20-24 inches.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, TriPol said:

 

East Rutherford gets 2 feet, Manhattan gets 6 inches?? Never seen that kind of a sharp cut off before.

It's very common when you have a track like this where warm air is an issue. People forget since it hasn't happened since 2-25-10.

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KeithB

KeithB

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Yeah this sounds more and more like what happened in March 1993.  Even on the south shore we had close to a foot of snow and the rain/sleet could not wash that away.  Either way, why does it matter if it does get washed away after the storm- it's Mid March, it wouldn't be sticking around for long either way LOL

I understand JM though.  He's upset because he missed out on our 30 incher last year.  I'm extremely happy to get anything, even all rain, it doesn't matter, because I feel like I already got to experience the most extreme storm this area could ever see anyway.

We do not want it washed away!...temps look good for several days following this event

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coastalplainsnowman

coastalplainsnowman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, KeithB said:

There is something about jackpotting. The way human nature works, ( at least for me) a lot of us would be happier with 12 inches if it's their area that's jackpotting, wheras they wouldn't be quite as happy with 14 inches when many areas within 25 miles of them are getting 20-24 inches.

Totally agree.  I thought it was just me until I did a poll in a forum like this about 10 years ago.  It went something like this, though I forget the exact amounts:  'Would you rather be in the jackpot of a storm that maxxed at your house at 8" or get a foot while Boston got 18"'?  Majority was in favor of jackpotting at 8.

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swamplover56

swamplover56

Posted
Posted
Just now, NJwx85 said:

It's very common when you have a track like this where warm air is an issue. People forget since it hasn't happened since 2-25-10.

Yanks I was in west orange for that storm we killed it during the day remember watching the NYC news and seeing it raining at noon while we were pounding. They still managed to kill it on the backside but I measured 23"

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's very common when you have a track like this where warm air is an issue. People forget since it hasn't happened since 2-25-10.

Problem is during that event that line was up in NE, pretty much everyone in our subforum (except for SW CT) had double digit snowfall in that one.

Of course it's possible, anything is possible- but is this likely- probably not.  Even if I was up in the Poconos right now, I'd still go with the Euro/EPS over any other model.  Any betting man would.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted
Just now, TriPol said:

The watery type. Ratios won't be 15:1, probably not even 10:1. Don't get me wrong, I love a good snowstorm, but this is the kind of stuff that breaks your back when you shovel it.

Not for the whole duration. it's cold at the start and end and possibly for the whole storm if the gfs is wrong

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, swamplover56 said:

Yanks I was in west orange for that storm we killed it during the day remember watching the NYC news and seeing it raining at noon while we were pounding. They still managed to kill it on the backside but I measured 23"

NYC snowed all day and got 20" it was just east of there we didn't change over until like 3 PM and managed to get about a foot.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Not for the whole duration. it's cold at the start and end and possibly for the whole storm if the gfs is wrong

You don't get 15:1 ratios for big windy storms like this anyway.  Best you can hope for is 12:1

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KeithB

KeithB

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

The watery type. Ratios won't be 15:1, probably not even 10:1. Don't get me wrong, I love a good snowstorm, but this is the kind of stuff that breaks your back when you shovel it.

It would be collateral damage. Well worth it  :)

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Totally agree.  I thought it was just me until I did a poll in a forum like this about 10 years ago.  It went something like this, though I forget the exact amounts:  'Would you rather be in the jackpot of a storm that maxxed at your house at 8" or get a foot while Boston got 18"'?  Majority was in favor of jackpotting at 8.

This is because of the days of the internet.  I assure you it was not like this before.  Before the internet I would have no idea what kind of weather was happening in NJ, much less Boston.  As far as I was considered they were Siberia LOL.  Didn't know what was going on there, therefore didn't care.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I'm surprised there isn't more talk on how AWFUL the GGEM is lol

I'm surprised people care this much about any model right now outside of the EPS- and even that is a stretch.  This is still like 4 days away.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Yeah this sounds more and more like what happened in March 1993.  Even on the south shore we had close to a foot of snow and the rain/sleet could not wash that away.  Either way, why does it matter if it does get washed away after the storm- it's Mid March, it wouldn't be sticking around for long either way LOL

I understand JM though.  He's upset because he missed out on our 30 incher last year.  I'm extremely happy to get anything, even all rain, it doesn't matter, because I feel like I already got to experience the most extreme storm this area could ever see anyway.

GFS is probably too far west given the UK/GGEM being a good bit east of it. I was just saying if the GFS did verify I doubt it would be anything like 12" of snow in NYC. I can't think of a time there was a 985mb low over Toms River with more than 6-8" in the city (maybe the Superstorm 1993?), and that personally I'm not a fan of storms like that for my backyard. 2/13/14 was maybe a 7" storm for me in total but it was still infuriating because of the quick change to rain (north of Sunrise Highway had 4-5" more than me) and the fact that what was left here at the end was mostly slush. 

Anyway enough banter. 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

It's possible (see Feb 2010 crazy R/S line storm) BUT its impossible to know where that will set up, even a day before.

Sure, I remember a few storms where even with a bad track we stayed mostly snow and the forecast busted in a positive way.  I also remember storms where we changed over early and we busted the other way.  R/S lines are a nowcasting event.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

GFS is probably too far west given the UK/GGEM being a good bit east of it. I was just saying if the GFS did verify I doubt it would be anything like 12" of snow in NYC. I can't think of a time there was a 985mb low over Toms River with more than 6-8" in the city (maybe the Superstorm 1993?), and that personally I'm not a fan of storms like that for my backyard. 2/13/14 was maybe a 7" storm for me in total but it was still infuriating because of the quick change to rain (north of Sunrise Highway had 4-5" more than me) and the fact that what was left here at the end was mostly slush. 

Anyway enough banter. 

I can't either and frankly- as I said before- if it was the Euro showing this solution- we'd have a lot more to worry about.  The GFS isn't exactly accurate at this range LOL

 

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