Zelocita Weather Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 New England thread has maps, 2-2.5" QPF for NJ, with 20-25"...little less NYC and long Island, but still 15"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Which recent blizzard was it that gave us a blizzard but buried the Long Island Expressway in Suffolk with over 30 inches?A couple, but I think you mean Feb 2013 (nemo) Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Honestly... not sure if I've seen a better H5 set-up... for an EC storm ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Look how deep the ULL gets allowing this thing to just wrap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 With the winds and coastal flooding potential now we are talking a storm in another league for the coast. A very heavy wet snow and 70moh gusts would mean major power outages. I was without power for 9'days after Sandy and it wasn't pretty. Especially when it got really cold. This is one is not joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, snywx said: With the exception being the Sierras/Cascades or the LES snowbelts this is a rarity regardless of the location Yeah I mean once you push 40"+ for a storm, that's historic outside of the typical areas like you mentioned. Not saying it's happening with this one, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Duration on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyDop Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Paragon said: That storm was pretty isolated though, once west of Suffolk County it was about a foot of snow It was the 6-8" they got in a hour that really stranded folks on the road. I'll never forget watching the news after that crazy band hit them and i couldnt understand why the reporter looked like she was reporting from marshmallow land. Everything was rounded off as if they just had 6-8" of wet snow. Well they did. Insane snowfall rates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Honestly... not sure if I've seen a better H5 set-up... for an EC storm ever I never have. Outside of a perfect text book case in class. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Part of it's also the coastal flood aspect. The beaches will get wrecked for sure with a low right off the NJ coast. I'd have to think winds gust to 60-70 mph. The Euro has wind gusts in the 70's mph out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, JohnnyDop said: It was the 6-8" they got in a hour that really stranded folks on the road. I'll never forget watching the news after that crazy band hit them and i couldnt understand why the reporter looked like she was reporting from marshmallow land. Everything was rounded off as if they just had 6-8" of wet snow. Well they did. Insane snowfall rates! I remember that haha that was on Ch 7 WABC and she looked like she was reporting from the top of a cloud! 40" in central Suffolk County and CT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Duration on the euro? 09z Tuesday- 12z Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Look how deep the ULL gets allowing this thing to just wrap I need To learn how to read these vort maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: With the winds and coastal flooding potential now we are talking a storm in another league for the coast. A very heavy wet snow and 70moh gusts would mean major power outages. I was without power for 9'days after Sandy and it wasn't pretty. Especially when it got really cold. This is one is not joke That is the one thing that worries me. I can sit out a blizzard, but outages are another thing. I have sump pumps. I have a generator that hasn't been started in years, but also an inverter I can hook up to the car. in 54 years I never lost power in a snowstorm; but snowtober, Irene, and Sandy were another matter. But will this be a wet snow? Why are we concluding this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 09z Tuesday- 12z Wed Ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 This hardly matters I'm sure, but what's the potential for the ULL to pivot through the region on Wednesday and give us more accumulating snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: I remember that haha that was on Ch 7 WABC and she looked like she was reporting from the top of a cloud! 40" in central Suffolk County and CT! The Jan 87 storm stranded many people on the GSP, and that was nowhere near some of the storms we've had since. Timing is the key; we have better warnings now and more social media. 87 took a lot of us by surprise; this won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: With the winds and coastal flooding potential now we are talking a storm in another league for the coast. A very heavy wet snow and 70moh gusts would mean major power outages. I was without power for 9'days after Sandy and it wasn't pretty. Especially when it got really cold. This is one is not joke I assume you think this will be of the heavy, wet snow variety? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 First warnings now up for areas NW of DC and Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 26 minutes ago, Paragon said: and that's a full moon high tide All that is necessary for moderate flooding is a 2.5 foot surge. A surge around 3.5 feet would get to the edge of major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: This hardly matters I'm sure, but what's the potential for the ULL to pivot through the region on Wednesday and give us more accumulating snow? It does pivot through, but the mid-levels in the atmosphere have no time to recover, so there is little precip. Maybe some snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 19 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: SNY I live in Rockland 20 years and have seen some big snows as well , maybe I should say are these # 's just too good to be true is there something that everyone is possibly missing , I know its only model runs and take each for what they are worth but we are talking 40 inches in PA ? Or is there a first time for everything,,I hope its the latter I think 10" is a great snowstorm, especially in March. Start relatively modestly with expectations and adjust as necessary. Forget about 40" or even 30" That's just fantasyland. We won't really know where the bigs snows will setup until the banding is already evident on radar. In several decades of living in the HV, I've never personally seen a 20" snowfall. I know it has occurred in different parts of the region, but never IMBY. Historical snowstorms are rare for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: This hardly matters I'm sure, but what's the potential for the ULL to pivot through the region on Wednesday and give us more accumulating snow? I believe that Paul alluded to this possibility this morning. Always unpredictable though, but I've seen them put down a few isolated bonus inches at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Wow...enjoy this Is all I have to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: The Jan 87 storm stranded many people on the GSP, and that was nowhere near some of the storms we've had since. Timing is the key; we have better warnings now and more social media. 87 took a lot of us by surprise; this won't. The more I look at this setup, it really looks like the January 87 storm displaced east somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 After tonight's 00Z runs can we call this a lock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I've seen 36", 30" ,27" numerous ones over 20 . A 20-30 inch storm is very possible.. dont discount it. Depends on the mesoscale banding and there will be subsidence areas.. be ready for it. This is a doozy as it is right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: All that is necessary for moderate flooding is a 2.5 foot surge. A surge around 3.5 feet would get to the edge of major. Ummm wow. We could easily see major flooding then with a euro situation. This is what is now legit worrying me about this. Mans to answer the questions about he heavy wet snow and power outages yes. If we get on the wrong side of the coastal front for a bit and temps spike into the mid 30s your going to cake snow onto trees and power lines. I would be seriously worried about this central Suffolk east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 36 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Let me ask you guys a question , are these numbers actually possible ? We have seen models spit out crazy numbers before and MANY times we were real disappointed ! I mean you guys that have been on here a long time or forgot more than I will ever know , can PA really hit 40 inches and can North and West really hit 30 ? If this all comes to be IM IN! the Lindsay storm had 30 plus in white plains/6 inch/hr rates for a time....it is possible and in the KU book it has happened a few times but that storm stands out in my mind (Feb 1969).....a met or more experienced hobbyist could probably give better info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Mt. Holly posted warnings. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 308 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 ...A MAJOR COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... .Low pressure will develop off the Carolina coast Monday and become an intense storm as it moves east of New Jersey on Tuesday. Heavy precipitation will develop along and west of the track of the storm. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow in much of the area Monday night and Tuesday with substantial accumulations. NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-130715- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0004.170314T0000Z-170315T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0003.170314T0000Z-170314T2200Z/ Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Carbon- Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester- Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Trenton, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown 308 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow, which is in effect from 8 PM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect. * LOCATIONS...Eastern Pennsylvania and much of northern New Jersey. * HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow and strong winds. * ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 8 to 18 inches. * TIMING...Snow begins Monday evening from southwest to northeast across the warning area, becoming heavy at times with snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour late Monday night and Tuesday morning. Snow will diminish by Tuesday evening. * IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make travel difficult or impossible late Monday night and Tuesday. * WINDS...Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * VISIBILITIES...One quarter mile or less at times, especially Tuesday morning. * TEMPERATURES...Generally in the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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