snywx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: yay for skiing when the maps come out I want to see the totals for Carbon County. Camelback is pretty close to Albrightsville. 30" range is pretty much throughout the poconos into NW NJ ( Sussex county) into Orange county then up into the Catskills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro QPF IMO is underdone too if that setup truly verifies. I think there would be higher amounts than it shows. I wonder if we can approach 2/25/10 aka snowicane totals up here. Widespread 25-36" W of the Hudson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 12 -24 is a good call for Nyc I'm thinking Upton will go with a 75% EURO 25% GFS blend and go all in with a blizzard warning for coast 15 to 20 inches area wide (WSW 4 the rest) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Wind gusts approaching March 2010 in spots with so much drifting that it will be hard to measure. Just an epic blizzard as portrayed in the run. Dear G-d and those winds may be under done in this set up. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Unless, you're a purist, you'd be rooting for a scenario like this. The really big ones can change to rain or mix for a time and still deliver 20"+ So what do you want...... 12-18 inches with no taint or 24+ inches with a little taint mixed in? I'd take the latter. Although last year was the best, no taint and 30+ inches of snow haha. Would prefer the Euro solution to last year's blizzard. Idk, last year's blizzard didn't feel as epic as the measurements made it seem. No thundersnow. Don't think Central Park even verified as a blizzard. This solution likely would. Didn't look as impressive the day after either...high ratio snow compresses very easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, snywx said: I wonder if we can approach 2/25/10 aka snowicane totals up here. Widespread 25-36" W of the Hudson One wild storm, I hope this one lasts as long. Does the Euro show it going on for 24+ hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 With this track I cannot see how the coast does not taint some. This is probably why the max snow amounts are inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Rittenhouse said: Would prefer the Euro solution to last year's blizzard. Idk, last year's blizzard didn't feel as epic as the measurements made it seem. No thundersnow. Don't think Central Park even verified as a blizzard. This solution likely would. Didn't look as impressive the day after either...high ratio snow compresses very easily. I think you want to see a redux of March 1888 lol It did verify as a blizzard at JFK but I see what you mean. Also, the cold only lasted a few days and this time we might actually be getting another significant snowstorm on top of it. Crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: With this track I cannot see how the coast does not taint some. This is probably why the max snow amounts are inland. Dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Let me ask you guys a question , are these numbers actually possible ? We have seen models spit out crazy numbers before and MANY times we were real disappointed ! I mean you guys that have been on here a long time or forgot more than I will ever know , can PA really hit 40 inches and can North and West really hit 30 ? If this all comes to be IM IN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3/12 12Z Guidance Summary: QPF / SNow range NYC area SREF: 1.30 - 1.55 / 10 - 18" NAM: 1.00 / 6 - 12" PNAM: 1.70 - 1.95 / 15 - 22" RGEM: 1.65 - 1.80 / 10 - 18" GFS: 0.85 - 1.15 / 8 - 12" GEFS: GGM: 2.35 / 18 - 22" UKMET: 2.30 / 18 -24" JMA: 1.25 - 1.55 / 12 - 18 " ECM: 1.90 - 2.23 : 18 - 25" EPS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The GFS surge guidance has a 3 foot surge with a weaker storm further offshore. So I am thinking that the Euro could produce a 3-5 foot surge on the Tuesday high tide. and that's a full moon high tide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Let me ask you guys a question , are these numbers actually possible ? We have seen models spit out crazy numbers before and MANY times we were real disappointed ! I mean you guys that have been on here a long time or forgot more than I will ever know , can PA really hit 40 inches and can North and West really hit 30 ? If this all comes to be IM IN! Of course it can happen. Ive been in Orange county for 20 yrs and Ive seen 24"+ amounts many times here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rittenhouse said: Would prefer the Euro solution to last year's blizzard. Idk, last year's blizzard didn't feel as epic as the measurements made it seem. No thundersnow. Don't think Central Park even verified as a blizzard. This solution likely would. Didn't look as impressive the day after either...high ratio snow compresses very easily. well it was epic kennedy had 30 inches so it was not just a central park storm and the wind was strong in the morning tapered after that..it was a fluffy snow which i prefer to the heavy wet stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Paragon said: Dryslot I'm in Hoboken (a few miles west of NYC). I do not want to dry slot or lose snowfall to taint. Hopefully, as some mods/posters have suggested, we can get this thing to move ever so slightly to the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: well it was epic kennedy had 30 inches so it was not just a central park storm and the wind was strong in the morning tapered after that..it was a fluffy snow which i prefer to the heavy wet stuff also extremely long duration somewhere between 30-36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: With this track I cannot see how the coast does not taint some. This is probably why the max snow amounts are inland. you mean eastern long island down the jersey shore sure there can be mixing issues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Let me ask you guys a question , are these numbers actually possible ? We have seen models spit out crazy numbers before and MANY times we were real disappointed ! I mean you guys that have been on here a long time or forgot more than I will ever know , can PA really hit 40 inches and can North and West really hit 30 ? If this all comes to be IM IN! It's not even about the numbers. Yea, most of the metro area looks like it's going to receive 1-2' of snow with even more NW of the city. That's historic for this time of the year. But it's everything else too. The coastal flooding, the very strong winds and the incredible dynamics. This might be truly one for the ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: also extremely long duration somewhere between 30-36 hours and it was either a heavy snow to moderate one all the way to the last few hours no let up to light snow until the end which i find remarkable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Which recent blizzard was it that gave us a blizzard but buried the Long Island Expressway in Suffolk with over 30 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, snywx said: Of course it can happen. Ive been in Orange county for 20 yrs and Ive seen 24"+ amounts many times here SNY I live in Rockland 20 years and have seen some big snows as well , maybe I should say are these # 's just too good to be true is there something that everyone is possibly missing , I know its only model runs and take each for what they are worth but we are talking 40 inches in PA ? Or is there a first time for everything,,I hope its the latter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, sferic said: Which recent blizzard was it that gave us a blizzard but buried the Long Island Expressway in Suffolk with over 30 inches? "Nemo" in 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Paragon said: and that's a full moon high tide Full moon tonight, 3.9 high tide on chart tues morn 4.3-4.6 is high so take it from there... http://ny.usharbors.com/monthly-tides/New York-Long Island/Jones Inlet/2017-03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: SNY I live in Rockland 20 years and have seen some big snows as well , maybe I should say are these # 's just too good to be true is there something that everyone is possibly missing , I know its only model runs and take each for what they are worth but we are talking 40 inches in PA ? Or is there a first time for everything,,I hope its the latter With the exception being the Sierras/Cascades or the LES snowbelts this is a rarity regardless of the location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: "Nemo" in 2013. There were people stranded in their car for hours on the LIE. Some ended up suffering hypothermia and were taken to the hospital. They had to use snowmobile to rescue some of them. Stay home during a storm like this folks. If not for a critical emergency, stay home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 What is the time frame of the storm on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Full moon tonight, 3.9 high tide on chart tues morn 4.3-4.6 is high so take it from there... http://ny.usharbors.com/monthly-tides/New York-Long Island/Jones Inlet/2017-03 Thanks, so Tuesday morning is the peak tide for the entire month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, Paragon said: Unless, you're a purist, you'd be rooting for a scenario like this. The really big ones can change to rain or mix for a time and still deliver 20"+ So what do you want...... 12-18 inches with no taint or 24+ inches with a little taint mixed in? I'd take the latter. Although last year was the best, no taint and 30+ inches of snow haha. Part of it's also the coastal flood aspect. The beaches will get wrecked for sure with a low right off the NJ coast. I'd have to think winds gust to 60-70 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Last January dropped a 31 spot on my house in Chester. Most I've experienced side '96. I don't recall seeing that storm being as modeled as intense as what the Euro just did. We're getting closer; enjoy the journey. More model runs to go, all will have differences. Don't jump to extremes. Personally, I'm hoping we all get smoked. Happy hunting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, David-LI said: There were people stranded in the car for hours on the LIE. Some ended up suffering hypothermia and were taken to the hospital. They had to use snowmobile to rescue some of them. Stay home during a storm like this folks. If not for a critical emergency, stay home. That storm was pretty isolated though, once west of Suffolk County it was about a foot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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