jm1220 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, snow1 said: We cannot have this come west anymore. Hopefully the consensus can tick back east tonight, maybe this is an overcorrection west. I agree, it's awesome for NYC now, but there would likely be some mixing that would cut into totals on the east end, and another tick west would bring that into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 At 48hr 987 low off Chesapeake. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Just East of delmarva, 987 mb at 12z Tuesday. Similar to ukie but probably not as far west looks ideal for everyone so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 still all snow to the coast at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Just East of delmarva, 987 mb at 12z Tuesday. Similar to ukie but probably not as far west It's a destroyer ! Coast comes close to mixing . Warmer than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 977 beast just off jersey shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro is gonna end up like ukie and ggem wow I think now you're seeing the new data fully ingested. I would be extremely surprised if the GFS/GEFS didn't do the same at 0z tonight- we should have a full consensus by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Just East of delmarva, 987 mb at 12z Tuesday. Similar to ukie but probably not as far west 977 just SE ACY 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 coast never mixes, everyone gets absolutely destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Directly from The hellaciously Talented Earthlight on Twitter : Afternoon Euro is in. A prolific, crippling blizzard for the I-95 corridor in the Northeast US. Wow. #blizzard2017 https://t.co/hqebCmmpPr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Euro is a top 5 storm.. sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Euro demolishes the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Parts of PA get close to 40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Hopefully the consensus can tick back east tonight, maybe this is an overcorrection west. I agree, it's awesome for NYC now, but there would likely be some mixing that would cut into totals on the east end, and another tick west would bring that into NYC. I think we'll be fine.....no recent guidance has shown the low tracking west of Suffolk County, so as long as the storm center doesn't track west of Suffolk we'll be fine. You have to be right under or to the east of the center to mix in this kind of wrapped up scenario- think Millenium Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Hopefully the trend towards more digging stops at this point, that would amplify the trough and force a track very close to the shore. GGEM was great this run but another tick west and the low's over NJ and there would be a good amount of taint into NYC even. I agree. But the big ones almost always taint along the coastal plain. A tucked in track would also likely be accompanied by extremely high precip. intensity. It's likely to correlate with high QPF, a more expansive precip. shield, and a tighter 850mb circulation. This might limit accumulations in ELI and possible coastal NJ, but would probably benefit everyone else. I'm far away for this one, but I would be rooting for a tucked track unless I lived on Block Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Through 18 it appears there may be a bit more SW flow and higher heights over the Carolinas and Florida at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 If there was any doubt about mixing, the 850mb low tracks east of the region, keeping winds favorable for subfreezing air to flow through the entire region (except far E LI). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Parts of PA get close to 40" Southern Poconos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro is a top 5 storm.. sorry Yep. It was one of the sickest Euro runs I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Wow, was not expecting the Euro to print that. Blockbuster storm, 1-2 feet from PHL to coastal Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: I agree. But the big ones almost always taint along the coastal plain. A tucked in track would also likely be accompanied by extremely high precip. intensity. It's likely to correlate with high QPF, a more expansive precip. shield, and a tighter 850mb circulation. This might limit accumulations in ELI and possible coastal NJ, but would probably benefit everyone else. I'm far away for this one, but I would be rooting for a tucked track unless I lived on Block Island. Unless, you're a purist, you'd be rooting for a scenario like this. The really big ones can change to rain or mix for a time and still deliver 20"+ So what do you want...... 12-18 inches with no taint or 24+ inches with a little taint mixed in? I'd take the latter. Although last year was the best, no taint and 30+ inches of snow haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 are snow maps allowed here? If so, can anyone post them? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 12 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro is a top 5 storm.. sorry One of the best short range Euro runs I've ever seen for the extended metro corridor... in 20+ years. But the first 10 or so of those years I didn't have access to hi res QPF data so it's difficult to really compare. On the downside, 2 or 3 of those memorable Euro runs resulted in the biggest meteorological disappointments I can ever remember. So proceed with caution. The CMC, UK, and Euro are the stuff of dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, Paragon said: Southern Poconos? 12z Euro has 40-44" for areas in NE PA & the Catskills w/ widespread 30"+ for nearby areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: Yep. It was one of the sickest Euro runs I've ever seen. For a top 5 storm it'll have to be 2 feet plus though. To do that we need 2.5 qpf all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 11 minutes ago, Rjay said: Yep. It was one of the sickest Euro runs I've ever seen. Wind gusts approaching March 2010 in spots with so much drifting that it will be hard to measure. Just an epic blizzard as portrayed in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The Euro QPF IMO is underdone too if that setup truly verifies. I think there would be higher amounts than it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: Yep. It was one of the sickest Euro runs I've ever seen. H7 goes just SE of me ever so slightly. Hammer time on the Euro...WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, Paragon said: Unless, you're a purist, you'd be rooting for a scenario like this. The really big ones can change to rain or mix for a time and still deliver 20"+ So what do you want...... 12-18 inches with no taint or 24+ inches with a little taint mixed in? I'd take the latter. Although last year was the best, no taint and 30+ inches of snow haha. Part of it's also the coastal flood aspect. The beaches will get wrecked for sure with a low right off the NJ coast. I'd have to think winds gust to 60-70 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 12 -24 is a good call for Nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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