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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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Just now, snow1 said:

We cannot have this come west anymore. 

Hopefully the consensus can tick back east tonight, maybe this is an overcorrection west. I agree, it's awesome for NYC now, but there would likely be some mixing that would cut into totals on the east end, and another tick west would bring that into NYC. 

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1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Euro is gonna end up like ukie and ggem wow

I think now you're seeing the new data fully ingested.  I would be extremely surprised if the GFS/GEFS didn't do the same at 0z tonight- we should have a full consensus by then.

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully the consensus can tick back east tonight, maybe this is an overcorrection west. I agree, it's awesome for NYC now, but there would likely be some mixing that would cut into totals on the east end, and another tick west would bring that into NYC. 

I think we'll be fine.....no recent guidance has shown the low tracking west of Suffolk County, so as long as the storm center doesn't track west of Suffolk we'll be fine.  You have to be right under or to the east of the center to mix in this kind of  wrapped up scenario- think Millenium Storm.

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully the trend towards more digging stops at this point, that would amplify the trough and force a track very close to the shore. GGEM was great this run but another tick west and the low's over NJ and there would be a good amount of taint into NYC even. 

I agree.  But the big ones almost always taint along the coastal plain.  A tucked in track would also likely be accompanied by extremely high precip. intensity.  It's likely to correlate with high QPF, a more expansive precip. shield, and a tighter 850mb circulation.  This might limit accumulations in ELI and possible coastal NJ, but would probably benefit everyone else.

I'm far away for this one, but I would be rooting for a tucked track unless I lived on Block Island.  

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3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I agree.  But the big ones almost always taint along the coastal plain.  A tucked in track would also likely be accompanied by extremely high precip. intensity.  It's likely to correlate with high QPF, a more expansive precip. shield, and a tighter 850mb circulation.  This might limit accumulations in ELI and possible coastal NJ, but would probably benefit everyone else.

I'm far away for this one, but I would be rooting for a tucked track unless I lived on Block Island.  

Unless, you're a purist, you'd be rooting for a scenario like this.  The really big ones can change to rain or mix for a time and still deliver 20"+

So what do you want...... 12-18 inches with no taint or 24+ inches with a little taint mixed in? I'd take the latter.

Although last year was the best, no taint and 30+ inches of snow haha.

 

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12 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Euro is a top 5 storm.. sorry

One of the best short range Euro runs I've ever seen for the extended metro corridor...  in 20+ years.  But the first 10 or so of those years I didn't have access to hi res QPF data so it's difficult to really compare.  On the downside, 2 or 3 of those memorable Euro runs resulted in the biggest meteorological disappointments I can ever remember.  So proceed with caution.

 

The CMC, UK, and Euro are the stuff of dreams.

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11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Yep. It was one of the sickest Euro runs I've ever seen.  

Wind gusts approaching March 2010 in spots with so much drifting that it will be hard to measure. Just an epic blizzard as portrayed in the run.

 

ecmwf_uv10g_nyc_10.thumb.png.bbae8f6d161d9ad2678b8cc76d40a9c4.png

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Unless, you're a purist, you'd be rooting for a scenario like this.  The really big ones can change to rain or mix for a time and still deliver 20"+

So what do you want...... 12-18 inches with no taint or 24+ inches with a little taint mixed in? I'd take the latter.

Although last year was the best, no taint and 30+ inches of snow haha.

 

Part of it's also the coastal flood aspect. The beaches will get wrecked for sure with a low right off the NJ coast. I'd have to think winds gust to 60-70 mph.

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