NortheastPAWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 What's the lead time for blizzard warnings? Assuming no dramatic last-second shift... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: What's the lead time for blizzard warnings? Assuming no dramatic last-second shift... 24 hours. You might see them though as early as this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: What's the lead time for blizzard warnings? Assuming no dramatic last-second shift... Pretty sure if euro holds and oz follows suit tonight they go up at the 4am update area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said: What's the lead time for blizzard warnings? Assuming no dramatic last-second shift... Blizzard Warning A Blizzard Warning means that the following conditions are occurring or expected within the next 12 to 18 hours. 1) Snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less for 3 hours or longerAND2) Sustained winds of 35 mph or greater or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater. There is no temperature requirement that must be met to achieve blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: The really detailed Euro products will be out soon so we can see if it comes in a little closer with stronger impacts like the UKIE did. What you do not want is 70mph gusts and a heavy wet snow. That's a recipe for major power outages. Based on the wind direction with even the tucked in track I doubt we see more then moderate flooding. Something on par with what we saw in January. major coastal flooding and heavy snow ala 93 and 78 is pretty incredible stuff as I have talked about in the past. Ice bergs that flash freeze into impenetrable ice after the water recedes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 100 PM EDT SUN MAR 12 2017 VALID MAR 12/1200 UTC THRU MAR 16/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS ...AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS THROUGH MON... ...TROUGH GOING NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUES... ...PARENT SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS THROUGH MON... ...INTENSE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EAST COAST MON NIGHT/TUES... ...DEEP UPPER LOW EVOLVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST TUES/WED... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...THROUGH 48 HOURS BLEND OF THE 00Z UKMET/00Z ECENS MEAN...AFTER 48 HOURS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE....BECOMING BELOW AVERAGE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIG DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING WEST COAST RIDGE AXIS AND AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS TONIGHT THROUGH MON. THIS WILL DRIVE A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER EASTERN WY EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY MON AND INTO THE OH VALLEY BY LATE MON. THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO BACK THE MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND WILL INITIATE A SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY TO MIDDAY ON MON IN VICINITY OF A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO GO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT AND THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND ON TUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST UP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS MON NIGHT AND TUES. REGARDING THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH/TN VALLEYS...THERE IS RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE ENERGY UNTIL MON EVENING WHEN THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF BEGIN TO LAG THE MODEL CONSENSUS A LITTLE AND ALSO TEND TO BE PERHAPS A TAD DEEPER. AS THE ENERGY GOES NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST MON NIGHT/TUES...THE 00Z UKMET AND 00Z CMC BECOME THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS WITH THE REMAINING MODELS CLUSTERED A LITTLE WEAKER. AT THE SURFACE...THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER AND A TAD FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH ITS CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NC BY MON EVENING...AND OVERALL HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET CLUSTER. AT 48 HOURS/12Z TUES...THE 12Z GFS REFLECTS A ECMWF/UKMET COMPROMISE WITH GOOD CLUSTERING. THEREAFTER...THE 12Z GFS BEGINS TO SHIFT ITS TRACK AGAIN A BIT EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND ALSO A BIT FASTER. THE 00Z UKMET/00Z CMC AND 00Z ECMWF ALL TUCK LOW PRESSURE IN CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z NAM AS WELL. AS THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OFFSHORE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE 00Z ECMWF GRADUALLY BECOMES THE SLOWEST SOLUTION...AND THE 00Z UKMET BECOMES THE DEEPEST OWING TO ITS STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT. THE ECMWF/CMC-BASED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR THE MORE WESTWARD LEANING DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AWAY FROM THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS-BASED MEMBERS COLLECTIVELY STILL FAVOR A TRACK FARTHER EAST. AT THIS TIME...WILL RECOMMEND A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH 48 HOURS GIVEN ITS BETTER MODEL CLUSTERING...BUT THEN WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE WELL-CLUSTERED UKMET/ECENS MEAN THEREAFTER TO APPROXIMATE THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO SLOW. CONFIDENCE AFTER 48 HOURS WILL BECOME BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN THE LEVEL OF MODEL SPREAD. BY LATER TUES AND WED...THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW DROPPING DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH THEN EVOLVES OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH WED. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL BE FAVORED WITH THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AT THIS POINT. ...AMPLIFYING TROUGH/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUES/WED... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TUES ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BY TUES NIGHT AND WED. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS OF THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...AS THE 00Z CMC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW CENTER...WITH THE 00Z UKMET SLOWER. THE 00Z ECMWF ALONG WITH THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS ACTUALLY SHOW A MUCH MORE ILL-DEFINED WAVE TRAVERSING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECENS MEAN BOTH FAVOR A WEAKER/FLATTER WAVE BUT ALL AGREE ON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY WED. THE 12Z NAM MAY BE A BIT TOO PROGRESSIVE...SO FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE GIVEN CONCERNS OVER THE LOW DEVELOPMENT. ...SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH NEAR SOUTHERN CA/BAJA PENINSULA BY WED... PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTHERN CA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA BY WED. MODEL SPREAD OVERALL IS RELATIVELY MINOR AT THIS POINT...SO A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL BE PREFERRED. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... ORRISON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: What you do not want is 70mph gusts and a heavy wet snow. That's a recipe for major power outages. Based on the wind direction with even the tucked in track I doubt we see more then moderate flooding. Something on par with what we saw in January. major coastal flooding and heavy snow ala 93 and 78 is pretty incredible stuff as I have talked about in the past. Ice bergs that flash freeze into impenetrable ice after the water recedes The full moon will also make the floods worse, and the storm will be close during Tues AM's high tide. I'm rooting for a more offshore track for that reason too. A hugger track piles much more water in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 29 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: The UK tends to score went in the short-mid range. Only a tick behind the Euro in the NHEM this month. Wod this translate to us too? Isn't it a 72hr correlation plot for NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 26 minutes ago, Rjay said: Second highest verification scores (for OP's) at 500mb in the NH. I just wish they had 12 hr frames, instead of only 24 hr frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: I just wish they had 12 hr frames, instead of 24 hr frames. They do... at least out to 72 hours, not sure about after that. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Euro out now at 1:45 or 2:45 ? This moving clocks ahead along with staying up all night to look at weather models has me a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: They do... at least out to 72 hours, not sure about after that. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=ukmet Thanks! Someone was posting UK panels last night and it was only one frame per 24 hrs maybe because it was beyond 72 hours (they posted a 72 hr frame and a 96 hr frame, but there was nothing in between.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: Euro out now at 1:45 or 2:45 ? This moving clocks ahead along with staying up all night to look at weather models has me a mess 2:45-3 and then EPS at 3:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Wod this translate to us too? Isn't it a 72hr correlation plot for NH? I don't think anybody would weigh model solutions based solely on upper air verification scores, but it's just a good way of illustrating that it has a good grasp on large-scale patterns. I couldn't really get into the nuances of how this information might be used... perhaps a red tagger could chime in and shed some light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: 2:45-3 and then EPS at 3:30 No it went from 1245 to 145 so coming out now. I know, it gets confusing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Euro out now at 1:45 or 2:45 ? This moving clocks ahead along with staying up all night to look at weather models has me a mess ECM : 1:50 EDT start EPS : 4:30 EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: 2:45-3 and then EPS at 3:30 Euro is coming out now and you're right about the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: 2:45-3 and then EPS at 3:30 1:45 not 2:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: 2:45-3 and then EPS at 3:30 145 coming out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Wod this translate to us too? Isn't it a 72hr correlation plot for NH? Excellent graphic post- I remember awhile back someone posted a graphic of the verification scores of the various GFS runs and the 6z and 18z runs scored the lowest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Through 18 it appears there may be a bit more SW flow and higher heights over the Carolinas and Florida at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: No it went from 1245 to 145 so coming out now. I know, it gets confusing Oh wait that's right. I was thinking 2 PM but then added an extra hour by mistake haha. I would do away with the :45 because these things take awhile to load it and just say it's 2 PM for the OP and 3:30 for the EPS. Better to round it off to the nearest 30 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Widespread 18-24 on ggem lol I think the CMC is close to a best case scenario for the urban corridor and NW suburbs. Widespread 2"+ LE with a climatologically cold airmass. Ratios could exceed 10:1 and the model probably doesn't fully take into account banding. I think you'd see a lot of 20-30" totals if that synoptic evolution actually occurred. It's a really beautiful run. Very high intensity precipitation for a medium length duration. But I would definitely hedge at least halfway towards the GFS solution at this point. The big coastals tend to take an offshore track, close to the 12z GFS track, especially in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, SACRUS said: ECM : 1:50 EDT start EPS : 4:30 EDT Wait the EPS is now going to be 4:30, not 3:30? Oh man, I thought the EPS came out about an hour and a half after the Euro, not two and a half hours later..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, eduggs said: I think the CMC is close to a best case scenario for the urban corridor and NW suburbs. Widespread 2"+ LE with a climatologically cold airmass. Ratios could exceed 10:1 and the model probably doesn't fully take into account banding. I think you'd see a lot of 20-30" totals if that synoptic evolution actually occurred. It's a really beautiful run. Very high intensity precipitation for a medium length duration. But I would definitely hedge at least halfway towards the GFS solution at this point. The big coastals tend to take an offshore track, close to the 12z GFS track, especially in recent years. Hopefully the trend towards more digging stops at this point, that would amplify the trough and force a track very close to the shore. GGEM was great this run but another tick west and the low's over NJ and there would be a good amount of taint into NYC even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Wait the EPS is now going to be 4:30, not 3:30? Oh man, I thought the EPS came out about an hour and a half after the Euro, not two and a half hours later..... EPS Panels starred at 230pm before we changed the clocks so now it's 330pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Euro is west through 48 fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Euro is gonna end up like ukie and ggem wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Neblizzard said: EPS Panels starred at 230pm before we changed the clocks so now it's 330pm Thanks, so it's an hour and a half after the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just East of delmarva, 987 mb at 12z Tuesday. Similar to ukie but probably not as far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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