March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

Not sure. Probably rain for a time over eastern LI I would think

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It's tough to tell.  Looks like NYC is 33 at the surface and below 32 at 850mb. 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Can someone tell me WTF happened to the GFS and GEFS?... I mean seriously lol.. Gefs are wayyyyy east 

[Stormlover74]

It's tough to tell.  Looks like NYC is 33 at the surface and below 32 at 850mb. 

Yeah 850s get close to central jersey at 12z but most of the area would be snow even LI

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[NYCGreg]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

 

Yeah 850s get close to central jersey at 12z but most of the area would be snow even LI

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The Ukie is still cutting it very close, and I imagine that would hurt ratios for a time here.

[mimillman]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

It's tough to tell.  Looks like NYC is 33 at the surface and below 32 at 850mb. 

The GGEM is probably too amped as Forkyfork said, as is its bias. The GFS is probably too progressive, also as is its bias. I think the Euro will be interesting and if it shows something *reasonable*, will probably ride it. My guess is it falls somewhere between GFS-land and GGEM-land. 

[EasternLI]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

It's tough to tell.  Looks like NYC is 33 at the surface and below 32 at 850mb. 

Really need to see the mid levels to tell for sure. Wish the Ukie was more available since it's one of the better models.

[SnowBlitzkrieg]

1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Can someone tell me WTF happened to the GFS and GEFS?... I mean seriously lol.. Gefs are wayyyyy east 

the GFS has been terrible this entire winter, this is nothing new

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Some extreme drifting with the track just SE of MTP. True blizzard conditions and gusts across LI in the 60 to perhaps 70 mph range with the LLJ max going right over LI.

 

 

 

That's would be a true blizzard. Also coastal impacts with that track are going to be major. The last thing you want is power outages during a beast like that. This crosses from a run of the mill heavy snow that we can handle to potentially damaging and life threatening 

[Juliancolton]

With everybody talking about the GEFS being way east, I was envisioning something like yesterday's 12z Euro or the Canadian until last night... this track will do just fine for most folks here.

[F5TornadoF5]

2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

The GGEM is probably too amped as Forkyfork said, as is its bias. The GFS is probably too progressive, also as is its bias. I think the Euro will be interesting and if it shows something *reasonable*, will probably ride it. My guess is it falls somewhere between GFS-land and GGEM-land. 

 Do you know of any bias for ukmet? Recently I think it's been better with larger storms than even the euro. 

[mimillman]

1 minute ago, F5TornadoF5 said:

 Do you know of any bias for ukmet? Recently I think it's been better with larger storms than even euro. 

I honestly thought the UKMET was typically progressive as well, but I rarely ever look at crazy uncle anyway.

[EastonSN+]

Ggem gets mixing to the coast. Unmet probably the same. Lets see where ECMF goes with this

[Juliancolton]

The UK tends to score went in the short-mid range. Only a tick behind the Euro in the NHEM this month.

 

[swamplover56]

4 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said:

 Do you know of any bias for ukmet? Recently I think it's been better with larger storms than even the euro. 

It's cerifacation scores at this time frame are quite close to the euro. For this storm it's been by far the most consistent model for the last 3-4 days

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That's would be a true blizzard. Also coastal impacts with that track are going to be major. The last thing you want is power outages during a beast like that. This crosses from a run of the mill heavy snow that we can handle to potentially damaging and life threatening 

With a tucked in track near the coast, there's a bigger coastal flood threat especially for the high tide on Tuesday AM. I still think the low goes somewhere between Nantucket and Block Island (probably over the Cape) but IMO the wrapped up track just off the NJ coast can't be discounted. Even these wrapped up solutions have 90% of the storm as snow for everyone. We'll see soon what the Euro has to say. 

[brooklynwx99]

This is the warmest the UKMET gets. Looks good for everyone (except for far, far E LI, which might warm over 0C for a couple hours). If only there was an 18z timestamp. 

[weatherfreeeeak]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Updating exact (in prorgess)

3/12 12Z Guidance Summary:

 

3/12 12Z Guidance Summary:

 

QPF / SNow range NYC area

 

SREF: 1.30 - 1.55 / 10 - 18"

NAM:  1.00 /  6 - 12"

PNAM: 1.70 - 1.95 /  15 - 22"

RGEM: 1.65 - 1.80 / 10 - 18" 

GFS: 0.85 - 1.15 / 8 - 12"

GEFS:
GGM:

UKMET:
JMA:

ECM:
EPS:

EPS:

Love this 

[Stormlover74]

Fwiw the gefs were similar to the OP in terms of qpf

 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Ggem gets mixing to the coast. Unmet probably the same. Lets see where ECMF goes with this

I'm still thinking NYC is okay but eastern Suffolk probably has issues with the track coming in so close to the coast. The wrapped up low also pulls cold air in. 

[NYCGreg]

Just now, jm1220 said:

With a tucked in track near the coast, there's a bigger coastal flood threat especially for the high tide on Tuesday AM. I still think the low goes somewhere between Nantucket and Block Island (probably over the Cape) but IMO the wrapped up track just off the NJ coast can't be discounted. Even these wrapped up solutions have 90% of the storm as snow for everyone. We'll see soon what the Euro has to say. 

Do you think that a wrapped up low like this - as strong as it may be - will stay as all snow for the immediate NYC Metro Area even if it is as close to the coast as modeled by the UKMET and CMC?

[Rjay]

7 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I honestly thought the UKMET was typically progressive as well, but I rarely ever look at crazy uncle anyway.

Second highest verification scores (for OP's) at 500mb in the NH.

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The UK tends to score went in the short-mid range. Only a tick behind the Euro in the NHEM this month.

 

Exactly lol. Thanks for posting this.

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

This is the warmest the UKMET gets. Looks good for everyone (except for far, far E LI, which might warm over 0C for a couple hours). If only there was an 18z timestamp. 

You're such an improved poster.   Great stuff all season from you!

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

With a tucked in track near the coast, there's a bigger coastal flood threat especially for the high tide on Tuesday AM. I still think the low goes somewhere between Nantucket and Block Island (probably over the Cape) but IMO the wrapped up track just off the NJ coast can't be discounted. Even these wrapped up solutions have 90% of the storm as snow for everyone. We'll see soon what the Euro has to say. 

I couldn't agree with you more.   I think the models are too wrapped up today.   They usually tick east after an overcorrection west.  This is straight up modelology but I've seen it so many times that it's hard to ignore.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That's would be a true blizzard. Also coastal impacts with that track are going to be major. The last thing you want is power outages during a beast like that. This crosses from a run of the mill heavy snow that we can handle to potentially damaging and life threatening 

The really detailed Euro products will be out soon so we can see if it comes in a little closer with stronger impacts like the UKIE did.

 

[Juliancolton]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Exactly lol. Thanks for posting this.

Yeah, I think it gets a bad rap because we have to deal with such sketchy output graphics. If it were easier to find the data, we'd all probably hold it in the same regard as the other big-name globals

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

Do you think that a wrapped up low like this - as strong as it may be - will stay as all snow for the immediate NYC Metro Area even if it is as close to the coast as modeled by the UKMET and CMC?

It would be close. The eastern half of Suffolk would likely mix, maybe even me for a time. If the low goes ENE from the NJ coast it would stop the warm air advancing north. 

[SACRUS]

3/12 12Z Guidance Summary:

 

QPF / SNow range NYC area

 

SREF: 1.30 - 1.55 / 10 - 18"

NAM:  1.00 /  6 - 12"

PNAM: 1.70 - 1.95 /  15 - 22"

RGEM: 1.65 - 1.80 / 10 - 18" 

GFS: 0.85 - 1.15 / 8 - 12"

GEFS:
GGM:  2.35 / 18 - 22"

UKMET: 2.30 / 18 -24"
JMA: 1.25 - 1.55 / 12 - 18 "

ECM:
EPS:

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

You're such an improved poster.   Great stuff all season from you!

Thanks, man. I've had to learn a bit to prepare myself for my atmospheric science undergrad at PSU next year.

All of you guys have helped me learn along the way since BDB, and I sincerely thank all of you. I wouldn't nearly know as much about the weather and the way it works without this forum and its posters.

[NJwx85]

UKMET is a beast. Tossing the GFS. As long as the ECMWF holds serve I'm all in for 12-24" with lollies to 30". Remember though that strong winds will keep ratios down somewhat.