brooklynwx99 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: That's a blizzard . Maps show a foot at hour 48 with probably another 4-6 hours of snow. The NAM tried to slow things down at the upper levels but the surface storm didn't. Onto the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 19 minutes ago, snywx said: 12z RGEM @ 48 hrs.. She is a beaut way inside the benchmark Awesome storm track. We get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Slight difference on GFS so far, could be a sign of better ridging out west, and deeper trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GFS early signs point to a shift west on GFS, much sharper trough and digging deeper SW so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS early signs point to a shift west on GFS, much sharper trough and digging deeper SW so far Hope so. Gfs always looks better early on then it takes that easterly jump towards the convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Hide difference with our SW energy at 36hr... much sharper and SW, really digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 32 minutes ago, snywx said: 12z RGEM @ 48 hrs.. She is a beaut way inside the benchmark Can you please post the frames after this one? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, David-LI said: Can you please post the frames after this one? Thank you. Doesn't go further than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Lifted this from the NE forum, everyone wins on the 12zRgem: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The GFS is still jumping to the convection. Can't make this sh*t up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said: The GFS is still jumping to the convection. Can't make this sh*t up. Just ignore it. Go with the more reliable models that don't keep doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said: The GFS is still jumping to the convection. Can't make this sh*t up. Looks SW to me, I'm not out past 50 tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Looks SW to me, I'm not out past 50 tho Way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, David-LI said: GFS caved. Nope. Still continues to throw everything east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, ineedsnow said: Way east No it's not compare it to 6z run at 18z Tuesday it's definitely sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: No it's not compare it to 6z run at 18z Tuesday it's definitely sw Just slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Major jump west, however as was the case with other models until today/last night, the eastern convection kills the Western shield...ignore the surface maps, GFS would be fine for everyone, and will finally catch on at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Slower and clearly further west but still not perfect. However it looks much improved over the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 It didn't jump anywhere... the whole system is just slower. Not a cave and definitely not "way east". People need to quit thinking exclusively in two dimensions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The GFS should have more precip in the area, but issues with convection jump QPF east. H5 was better on this run though, so don't bother with QPF regarding the GFS. The LP was farther west, but QPF was pulled east due to convective interference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Slower and clearly further west but still not perfect. However it looks much improved over the 6z run. Baby steps. It won't catch on completely til tomorrow most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Updating exact (in prorgess) 3/12 12Z Guidance Summary: 3/12 12Z Guidance Summary: QPF / SNow range NYC area SREF: 1.30 - 1.55 / 10 - 18" NAM: 1.00 / 6 - 12" PNAM: 1.70 - 1.95 / 15 - 22" RGEM: 1.65 - 1.80 / 10 - 18" GFS: 0.85 - 1.15 / 8 - 12" GEFS: GGM: UKMET: JMA: ECM: EPS: EPS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Slower and clearly further west but still not perfect. However it looks much improved over the 6z run. With an inferior model all you can hope for are baby steps. Sorry but there is little viable comparison to the Euro. They dont call it the king for nothin! To be clear I say this not because of QPF because structure doesnt translate at all and this constant convective feedback issue can get awfully annoying! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: The GFS should have more precip in the area, but issues with convection jump QPF east. H5 was better on this run though, so don't bother with QPF regarding the GFS. The LP was farther west, but QPF was pulled east due to convective interference. Your insight is always very good. Post more if you can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Trof tilt still positive at hr 54 + weaker shortwave = no blizzard for NYC. Still a nice thump, though, especially for March. No mixing either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The GFS will catch on at some point, or it won't. It pulls this convective feedback stuff almost every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I am just glad the phasing and mid levels appear to be trending in a better direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I don't think the GFS was a big move west or east for that matter. Sometimes comparing the two frames (from 6z/12z) does not show a move west/east because the storm is moving slower/faster, making it seem as if the low has shifted in one direction, when really it is not comparing apples to apples. That being said, it did bring a bit more precip into most areas, making it similar to the 00z run, improved over the 06z runSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rittenhouse said: Trof tilt still positive at hr 54 + weaker shortwave = no blizzard for NYC. Still a nice thump, though, especially for March. No mixing either. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.